normal situation 215

[citanul]

without looking at any resource,

party 215, 5 handed, 100/200, bb has been just picking up monsters so has lots of chips. other than that, nothing special.

you're utg and pick up Q9o with 1100.

stacks going around to your left are:

2900, 1300, 1300, 3000, roughly, add some odds and ends to make it all 10k even /images/graemlins/smile.gif

your move?

(to answer the first question, assume hero lost a pot last hand, or that utg opened last hand, so no talk please about "you should have pushed last hand," the hand is in a vacuum, besides that you have of course stolen at some point in the tournament.)

later we'll look at the icm or somesuch too.

citanul

[Nick B.]

I would fold.

[Jman28]

I fold, but it's not clear cut, I think.

[ QUOTE ]

to answer the first question,

[/ QUOTE ]

There is going to be a follow-up?

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

to answer the first question,

[/ QUOTE ]

There is going to be a follow-up?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, but it's clearly the first question that many people would come up with when looking at the situation.

citanul

[fluorescenthippo]

push if its suited?

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
push if its suited?

[/ QUOTE ]

you tell me.

and/or nick and jman and others can tell me.

i'm not going to offer anything close to a "solution" any time immediately-like, it's meant to have some discussion.

citanul

[bluefeet]

Instinctively, I would fold. Even after clearing the blinds, you're only a double-up away from t1600 chips. Adding in the "Hero lost a pot last hand", might open the calling range from BB perhaps more suspicious of a desperate-tilty move. Pushing through 4 people is always a tall order...

However - the other two shortie's will maintain a VERY small calling range...letting big-stack BB "do his job". You still hold adequate FE on the other big-stack, in that he's unlikely to "call", knowing BB can put him in, forcing a fold (Similarly not pushing over for his tourney, being covered by BB). So, you're basically gambling that BB doesn't awake to another big hand. Enjoying his chip lead, I think his range is still relatively tight (unless his "read" tells him otherwise). I would guess 99-TT+,AJs-Q+.

It boils down to how desperatly you need these chips. Assuming an aggressive bubble, you'll likely be only buying yourself a set of blinds, as others push you off the next two hands. I don't know that it's quite worth it for me with this hand. I'd rather wait for Button or CO position - ideally CO, where you can push into the other two shorter stacks, where t800ish is still significant FE.

Edit: In this position, I'm looking for 88-99+, AT+, KQ, maybe even QJs.

[ZeroPointMachine]

I push it but hate it. Your trapped between big stacks and are not likely to get many open looks in the future. The big stack on your right is not going to let you make a move. The big stack on your left will always have favorable pot odds in his blind.

[curtains]

I would certainly fold this 2 off the button.

[J-Lo]

fold-- a push looks too desperate-- w/ 800 chips, u can still have some FE.. but more importantly pick up an allin hand in the next 5 deals... or is think thinking wrong because you are too short-- and everyone plays the bubble perfectly in the 215's?

[deathpotato]

I fold here pretty much automatically

[Jman28]

Again without looking at ICM, I might push Q9s here depending on my opponents. I assume most people disagree. No?

[Chaostracize]

How many hands until blinds go up?

I fold.

[BigHobo]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold here pretty much automatically

[/ QUOTE ]

[Maulik]

these kinds of marginal hands get me in trouble. I think this is one of the hands which you relucantly fold. you're better off folding this hand and waiting until you're bb prices you in rather than pushing. this hand is too easily dominated and you still have 4 "players" left to act.

[ilya]

The only queen-high I would push here is QJs I think.

If the blinds are going up next hand, though, I push the Q9o.

[good2cu]

I would fold Q9o in this spot even though I think it's real real close, far closer then everyone is making it out to be. Being this short we may not get any more shots at +EV moves. Also if both of our blinds get stolen(somewhat likly at the 215s),that leaves us 750 chips, so even if we double then we'd still only be back to 1400. I'm going to have to run some numbers but I think this is real close. At the 215s there is quite a few good players, and they are going to assume you are pushing here with a fairly wide range of hands, and adjust their calling ranges accordingly. Im thinking QJ+, K8+, Axs, A5o+, 44+ is a push here, but this range still might be too tight. We could go the rest of this tournament without seeing a +EV Move, and even if we see one we're probaly going to have lost a lot chips before it.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
The only queen-high I would push here is QJs I think.

If the blinds are going up next hand, though, I push the Q9o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I thought about this for awhile, I think I'm folding. It's definitely close.

[citanul]

some s+ga numbers to look at real quick

blinds 100/200

stacks starting from me going around:

1085, 2872, 1290, 1415, 3338

hand Q9o

if we put the first three guys on TT+, AQs+, AKo+ and the last guy on 44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+

push is +$16 (.8%)

if we leave the first 3 guys the same and put the big stack on:

22+, A2s+, A3o+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs

push is +$3.6, (.2%)

if each big stack is on that much larger calling range, it's -$11.9.

Q9s:

1st scenario: +$20
2nd scenario: +$9
3rd scenario: -$4.6

QJs:

3rd scenario: +$.76
2nd scenario: +$13.3
1st scenario: +$23.9

back to Q9o:

if all 4 players are on 22+, A2s+, A3o+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs
pushing loses $33.4

putting both big stacks on that calling range and the small stacks on 66+, ATs+, AJo+, loses $17.3

pushing QJs in the same spot loses $4.

I don't know exactly which one of these ranges I'm likely to put a random set of opponents on, but it's probably much more like the first two (profitable) scenarios than the others.

I think that people put a much larger than is correct disparity in their minds between hands like Q9o and QJs.

Anyways, I pushed here, in the game as it played, fwiw.

citanul

[SCfuji]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyways, I pushed here, in the game as it played, fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey citanul, the only thing that matters is if you won the hand.

fuji /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyways, I pushed here, in the game as it played, fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey citanul, the only thing that matters is if you won the hand.

fuji /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

psh, we all know i never lose.

bb called with KK, flop 678, turn 5, whammo.

citanul

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyways, I pushed here, in the game as it played, fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey citanul, the only thing that matters is if you won the hand.

fuji /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

psh, we all know i never lose.

bb called with KK, flop 678, turn 5, whammo.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

He was lucky preflop, you were lucky postflop. It evens out.

[Nick B.]

I thought this was 4 handed, anyways my vote for fold is the same.

[SCfuji]

what an idiot. who calls with kk there when you are going to hit a straight.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
what an idiot. who calls with kk there when you are going to hit a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

i clearly have no problem with the play of the bb. people just want closure and results and whatnot, so i posted them. he should have known, however, that he was going to lose, because i never lose, and it had to be one of us.

citanul

[curtains]

citanul your calling standards are way too tight for most of the players!! TT+, AKo+, AQs+????? Are you playing different games than me? Do you really think they are just automatically folding 99, 88 and AJs along with other assorted pretty looking hands?

[deathpotato]

[ QUOTE ]
citanul your calling standards are way too tight for most of the players!! TT+, AKo+, AQs+????? Are you playing different games than me? Do you really think they are just automatically folding 99, 88 and AJs along with other assorted pretty looking hands?

[/ QUOTE ]I have to agree with curtains here. I think realistic ranges for all 4 players would be something like 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+ (and we all know that we will oftentimes be called much looser than this, too). Putting two of them on 66+,AJo+,ATs+, which is in my opinion tighter than most people will play given your fairly desperate-looking push, still makes pushing equivalent to folding. Pushing definitely isn't terrible, I don't think, and against the right field it can be good, but I think the ranges you're assuming are too tight to assign to 4 unknowns.

Edit: VV I don't think you can assume that you give up 1/4 of your equity by going through the blinds, as being folded to or find yourself in a calling situation happens fairly frequently. That's an interesting point though, and you may very well be right that losing a little on this hand is better than the bigger equity hit you take by going through the blinds with a smaller stack.

[citanul]

c,

nah, but i felt that the short stacks would be fairly tight, and the big stacks fairly loose. didn't do much customization, but felt that i was probably closish. the main point was that the decision isn't all that clear cut, i think.

pesonally, as has been discussed previously, my current re-aligning of my game has me always looking if i'm going to have 2 bad spots, looking for the one where i can be the aggressor, even if i give up a couple of bucks by doing it. mostly i like fold equity i guess.

here, i think that the ev of pushing, due to a variety of things, such as being sandwiched between two stacks, and possibly having to deal with someone who is desperate to call when the big stacks do decide to let one slide, i felt that pushing was intuitively better than letting the blinds plow me and then seeing what happened next.

stack, icm for utg alignment, stacks then icm for alignment saying for instance, big stack takes down this hand and both of the next two sets of blinds.

1085 -> .1283 -> 785 -> .0988
2872 -> .2684 -> 2672 -> .262
1290 -> .1494 -> 1290 -> .1542
1415 -> .1616 -> 1415 -> .1668
3338 -> .2922 -> 3838 -> .3183

i dunno exactly what this all means right now, mostly because i'm tired, but i thought i'd put more stuff out there in the field for people who do want to look at this hand to consider.

you're giving up just under 1/4 of your equity in the tournament by folding through the blinds here, according to ICM. that means that if your plan is to fold through the blinds, and the alternative is something else, you should consider how much it loses, as another loser can still obviously be better without being a winner.

my prior numbers show that against a semi-reasonable set of assumptions about opponents, the push is *clearly* positive. however they werne't great assumptions. the other numbers i showed show that when you loosen up the numbers, you're still not giving up close to 1/4 of your equity, i think, when you get to reasonable calling ranges for your opponents.

anyway, off to sleep. i like this stuff sometimes. (the sleep and the poker.)

citanul

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
citanul your calling standards are way too tight for most of the players!! TT+, AKo+, AQs+????? Are you playing different games than me? Do you really think they are just automatically folding 99, 88 and AJs along with other assorted pretty looking hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to agree with curtains here. I think realistic ranges for all 4 players would be something like 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+ (and we all know that we will oftentimes be called much looser than this, too). Putting two of them on 66+,AJo+,ATs+, which is in my opinion tighter than most people will play given your fairly desperate-looking push, still makes pushing equivalent to folding. Pushing definitely isn't terrible, I don't think, and against the right field it can be good, but I think the ranges you're assuming are too tight to assign to 4 unknowns.

[/ QUOTE ]

a) i ran several scenarios and reported the numbers for all of them, not just the tight ranges, as i explained, i know that those ranges were not great, but i did run several ranges.

b) i think the assumption that the short stacks will call off their whole stacks at a 215 with 44 because your push "looks desperate" is completely off the wall retarded. not even the average 215 player is dumb enough to say "he's desperate, i know what i'll do, i'll hope to call into a coin flip with that guy for my whole stack. oh, hell with it, he must have a 2 in his hand, i'm way ahead.

c) there's a clear, and large, difference between curtains' 99 and 88 example and your example of 44.

i think that the most realistic of the ranges that i ran (if i'm remembering what i ran earlier without looking now) is the big stacks with the loosey goose ranges and the small stacks fairly tight.

d) look at my post above this one, where i talk about how costly folding through the blinds is going to be. i think that people like to talk about the ev of just folding the hand, but sometiems you hve to consider what the ev of being forced to fold the next several hands is going to be, especially when it is incredibly likely.

all this is without talking about how much or if one is supposed to open up his calling standards against short stack pushes against his bb. (any ace? any king? etc.)

gnight for real this time.

citanul

[curtains]

Ok but I think that the TT, AK+, AQs+ range is way off the wall. Basically that is the absolute tightest that ANYONE will be. Meanwhile people can be a lot looser. Its almost never a good idea to use a range that is the maximum in tightness, and honestly I would suspect that less than 5% of players will be that tight.

I never use that range in any situation whenever I use SNG powertools, and think you would be well advised to never use it again, as it gives unrealistic results. Make a more reasonable range that includes 88+ and AJ+ and such. Okay it still may be a bit too tight, especially when you are pushing for 5.5x the BB, but ok its much closer.

[deathpotato]

[ QUOTE ]
a) i ran several scenarios and reported the numbers for all of them, not just the tight ranges, as i explained, i know that those ranges were not great, but i did run several ranges.

[/ QUOTE ]
I realize this, I was referring to the fact that you thought the tighter, profitable ranges were more close to what could be expected, and was just saying that in my experience you will in general be getting called by too many hands for the play to be profitable on its own (without taking into account passing through the blinds).

[ QUOTE ]
b) i think the assumption that the short stacks will call off their whole stacks at a 215 with 44 because your push "looks desperate" is completely off the wall retarded. not even the average 215 player is dumb enough to say "he's desperate, i know what i'll do, i'll hope to call into a coin flip with that guy for my whole stack. oh, hell with it, he must have a 2 in his hand, i'm way ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think the main problem with assigning ranges like this is that we can't give a good representation of the amount of times people will call with certain hands. It's silly to say that a player will call with A9s and not with A8s in a particular situation, when what is governing his decision is his perception of your range. On the other hand, assigning probabilities to the likelihood of people calling with different hands is way too complicated to be practical. I'm not saying I personally would call you with 44, nor would the average 215 player, but I suspect you'd be far from surprised to get a call from 44, as we get much worse calls on a fairly frequent basis. I had a similar situation today when I was called by J2s on a 6BB push. I don't think my ranges are all that far off as an average of the tighter and looser calling ranges that you'll encounter. For what it's worth, if the other players can limit your pushing range to 22+,A2+,K4o+,K2s+,Q9o+,Q8s+,JTo,J9s+ then calling with 44 is marginally +EV for the two who are out of the blinds and clearly +EV for those who are in the blinds. So while my range may be a little on the loose side, I doubt that it's off the wall retarded.

[ QUOTE ]
c) there's a clear, and large, difference between curtains' 99 and 88 example and your example of 44.

i think that the most realistic of the ranges that i ran (if i'm remembering what i ran earlier without looking now) is the big stacks with the loosey goose ranges and the small stacks fairly tight.

[/ QUOTE ]You are right, I think almost anyone will call you with 88 and not everyone by any means will call with 44. But getting called by 44 will happen, getting called by 55 will happen more often, 66 more often still. 33 will happen too, but less frequently, as will JTs. This all comes back to having to put hard ranges on soft situations, a lot of people will call with 44 only some of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
d) look at my post above this one, where i talk about how costly folding through the blinds is going to be. i think that people like to talk about the ev of just folding the hand, but sometiems you hve to consider what the ev of being forced to fold the next several hands is going to be, especially when it is incredibly likely.

[/ QUOTE ]I'm actually going to try to run through some numbers regarding the EV damage taken by folding through the blinds given different stack sizes, as I haven't checked this out before. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to find that taking the blinds with a slightly bigger stack when you successfully steal makes up for the slight damage taken by pushing Q9 into even the loosish ranges I suggest.

[ QUOTE ]
it had to be one of us.

[/ QUOTE ]

A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gifA/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Also, T/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/spade.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif. I assume he was calling in hopes of splitting the blinds with you.