Giving it up on the turn

[ResidentParanoid]

Loose, mostly passive LL online game.

I am in MP with AcQc. 2 Limpers to me. I raise. MP, CO and button cold call. SB folds and BB calls. 6 see the flop.

Flop is J 9 3 rainbow, 1 club. Checked to me, I bet, MP, button and BB call.

Turn is 5 (J 9 3), 1 club, 2 hearts. Checked to me, I check, MP bets, button calls, BB folds, I fold.

River is A (5 J 9 3), no flush. Bet, call.

MP takes it with a pair of J's.


Comments?

[Inthacup]

By my count there are 7 callers on the flop. From the action you described there was 10.5BB in the pot. IF you decide you have 6 outs, you need about 9-1 to cover it. You could very easily have 6 3 or 0 outs left. You aren't going to lose much by folding here, if you lose anything at all.

[Bob T.]

At first glance, it seems that you have the odds to call here for a 6-outer. However, you have to consider that the two hearts might not be outs, and if someone has a j, they might be playing either QJ, or AJ suited, and a lower pair might have an ace as a kicker, so your other pair outs might be compromised. On top of that, you might be drawing dead against a set or two pair. With the one player who keeps calling, calling, and may be up against a draw, which might compromise your outs. A queen might complete a straight draw. Although, the action so far on this hand hasn't been dynamic, which might mean that one pair will be good enough to win, I think you made a good fold here.

[Homer]

I might have just check-called the flop. With two players behind you it is unlikely that you will be able to buy the button with a flop bet (setting yourself up for a free card on the turn), plus one of them or an EP player might raise, costing you two bets to see the turn. I think that checking like this when I miss gives me a greater chance of being able to checkraise the field when I actually do have an overpair.

-- Homer

[ResidentParanoid]

Yes, you are right, I can't count: we see the flop 7-handed.

At the time, I thought this fold was a big mistake. After reading these posts, it looks like it's a marginal situation. Thanks for the analysis.

[ResidentParanoid]

I may have auto-bet-syndrome too often in this kind of flop situation. I think it gets me more callers at one of these 7-to-the-flop kind of tables when I do hit the flop after raising pre-flop.