The lottery is +EV [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

sfer

09-13-2005, 03:29 PM

I just bought (partially) a lottery ticket for the first time and it's a good move. Everyone at work is buying a share of a ticket (apparently the jackpot in NY is high right now) at the urging of one of our admins. If they won and I was the guy who didn't get rich because I made a smart gamble, I would have to kill myself. Thus, the infinitesimal probability of not having to kill myself tomorrow is +EV.

bravos1

09-13-2005, 03:31 PM

IndieMatty

09-13-2005, 03:33 PM

sfer

09-13-2005, 03:33 PM

I don't know, dude. I just gave her $1 and told her to pick my numbers.

siccjay

09-13-2005, 03:34 PM

Yea, I'm sure they put up like 10 cents a piece.

smokingrobot

09-13-2005, 03:34 PM

are they planning on not giving out bonues this year or something?

09-13-2005, 03:34 PM

good move but be warned that there is quite a bit of legal jurisprudence on lottery agreements among friends/co-workers. there is a chance your agreement might not consitute a contract in the eyes of the court.

kerssens

09-13-2005, 03:35 PM

This is just a recipe for disaster. I especially like how after the tickets are bought everyone sits around and talks about how they'll spend their share.

manpower

09-13-2005, 03:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You guys all share in ONE ticket?

[/ QUOTE ]
Office pools generally buy many tickets, then if any of the tickets win, the money is split between everyone in the pool.

TheCroShow

09-13-2005, 03:35 PM

yet another retard uses +EV in a -EV fashion....

bravos1

09-13-2005, 03:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You guys all share in ONE ticket?

[/ QUOTE ]
Office pools generally buy many tickets, then if any of the tickets win, the money is split between everyone in the pool.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was a joke.... just playing off of sfer's wording in the OP.

Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!

09-13-2005, 03:38 PM

huge lottos like power ball have "filthy-rich implied odds" with small risk (couple of bucks).

manpower

09-13-2005, 03:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You guys all share in ONE ticket?

[/ QUOTE ]
Office pools generally buy many tickets, then if any of the tickets win, the money is split between everyone in the pool.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was a joke.... just playing off of sfer's wording in the OP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, whatever. Maybe my explaination will be able to help some other poor fool instead. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

sfer

09-13-2005, 03:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yet another retard uses +EV in a -EV fashion....

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you have to hide your video games?

Bluffoon

09-13-2005, 03:42 PM

I was in an office pool for the New Jersey Lottery at my last job. About six months after I leave I am reading in the paper and I see that they hit.

peterchi

09-13-2005, 03:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yet another retard uses +EV in a -EV fashion....

[/ QUOTE ]
huh?

mmbt0ne

09-13-2005, 03:43 PM

<blockquote>En réponse à:<hr />
Everyone at work is buying a share of a ticket (apparently the jackpot in NY is high right now) at the urging of one of our admins.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if NY is part of Mega-Millions, but if you are, it's $200M tonight.

bravos1

09-13-2005, 03:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yet another retard uses +EV in a -EV fashion....

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you have to hide your video games?

[/ QUOTE ]

LMAO PWNED!

shant

09-13-2005, 03:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yet another retard uses +EV in a -EV fashion....

[/ QUOTE ]
huh?

[/ QUOTE ]
Why do you guys even pay attention to this guy. He's a 20+ year old gamer with a Dawson's Creek avatar. What can he post that is going to be worth reading anyway. If I wasn't such a nice guy he'd already be on ignore.

Patrick del Poker Grande

09-13-2005, 03:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yet another retard uses +EV in a -EV fashion....

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you have to hide your video games?

[/ QUOTE ]
POTD

PITTM

09-13-2005, 03:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yet another retard uses +EV in a -EV fashion....

[/ QUOTE ]
huh?

[/ QUOTE ]
Why do you guys even pay attention to this guy. He's a 20+ year old gamer with a Dawson's Creek avatar. What can he post that is going to be worth reading anyway. If I wasn't such a nice guy he'd already be on ignore.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i was going to respond and say how wrong he was, but then i realized i would probably just be wasting my time. bummer.

rj

lastsamurai

09-13-2005, 03:48 PM

YOu could always use them for gambling losses for your tax write off.

peterchi

09-13-2005, 03:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yet another retard uses +EV in a -EV fashion....

[/ QUOTE ]
huh?

[/ QUOTE ]
Why do you guys even pay attention to this guy. He's a 20+ year old gamer with a Dawson's Creek avatar. What can he post that is going to be worth reading anyway. If I wasn't such a nice guy he'd already be on ignore.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i was going to respond and say how wrong he was, but then i realized i would probably just be wasting my time. bummer.

rj

[/ QUOTE ]
How come I can't find your avatar on her website? I swear I went through every one of those little videos. Like 20 or so. None of them were quite as good as your avatar.

Boobs. I like boobs.

My gf has Cs. They're nice. I never thought I'd date a girl with boobs that big. Actually we've been kinda off-and-on, leaning towards on right now but not quite.

Boobs.

Patrick del Poker Grande

09-13-2005, 03:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My gf has Cs. They're nice. I never thought I'd date a girl with boobs that big. Actually we've been kinda off-and-on, leaning towards on right now but not quite.

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to start a thread so we can help you.

PITTM

09-13-2005, 03:55 PM

see the thread "my avatar faq" from yesterday, im sure its in there i you look at my previous posts.

rj

peterchi

09-13-2005, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My gf has Cs. They're nice. I never thought I'd date a girl with boobs that big. Actually we've been kinda off-and-on, leaning towards on right now but not quite.

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to start a thread so we can help you.

[/ QUOTE ]
HAHA

nah i'd rather just ramble in this one. It's my way of voicing disagreement with dumb comments like Cro's.

and at first I thought you meant I should start a thread so you can help me find boobs. heh.

peterchi

09-13-2005, 04:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
see the thread "my avatar faq" from yesterday, im sure its in there i you look at my previous posts.

[/ QUOTE ]
hm. Maybe I just suck at internet. Your faq only has the webpage, which I already looked through.

B Dids

09-13-2005, 04:08 PM

I was in this situation once and didn't buy the ticket, and it was scary. Next time, I buy the ticket.

PocketJokers72

09-13-2005, 05:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yet another retard uses +EV in a -EV fashion....

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe I'm just not getting the concept...

posted odds from Mega-Millions website:

odds of hitting 5 numbers +1 mega-ball (Jackpot) = 1 in 175,711,536

current jackpot: 200,000,000 ++

If you were to purchase 1 ticket, for $1, then it is +EV, no?

If you are splitting shares like the OP, then it isn't?

Either way, the implied odds are worth the gamboool.

pokerdirty

09-13-2005, 05:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yet another retard uses +EV in a -EV fashion....

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe I'm just not getting the concept...

posted odds from Mega-Millions website:

odds of hitting 5 numbers +1 mega-ball (Jackpot) = 1 in 175,711,536

current jackpot: 200,000,000 ++

If you were to purchase 1 ticket, for $1, then it is +EV, no?

If you are splitting shares like the OP, then it isn't?

Either way, the implied odds are worth the gamboool.

[/ QUOTE ]

taxes make it -EV?

stabn

09-13-2005, 05:21 PM

stabn

09-13-2005, 05:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yet another retard uses +EV in a -EV fashion....

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe I'm just not getting the concept...

posted odds from Mega-Millions website:

odds of hitting 5 numbers +1 mega-ball (Jackpot) = 1 in 175,711,536

current jackpot: 200,000,000 ++

If you were to purchase 1 ticket, for $1, then it is +EV, no?

If you are splitting shares like the OP, then it isn't?

Either way, the implied odds are worth the gamboool.

[/ QUOTE ]

taxes make it -EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

As does lump sum payment and possibility of sharing the jackpot.

pokerdirty

09-13-2005, 05:24 PM

i don't think it matters. i'll be playing, regardless of the odds. 5 bucks isn't that big of a deal to me, and if i win, i can have my driver do circles around you in my brand new maybach.

stabn

09-13-2005, 05:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think it matters. i'll be playing, regardless of the odds. 5 bucks isn't that big of a deal to me, and if i win, i can have my driver do circles around you in my brand new maybach.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yawn.

pokerdirty

09-13-2005, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't think it matters. i'll be playing, regardless of the odds. 5 bucks isn't that big of a deal to me, and if i win, i can have my driver do circles around you in my brand new maybach.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yawn.

[/ QUOTE ]

you yawn because you're jealous

mblax10

09-13-2005, 08:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]

maybe I'm just not getting the concept...

posted odds from Mega-Millions website:

odds of hitting 5 numbers +1 mega-ball (Jackpot) = 1 in 175,711,536

current jackpot: 200,000,000 ++

If you were to purchase 1 ticket, for $1, then it is +EV, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Last time Mega Millions was in the $175,000,000 range (about 3 months ago) I did some rough EV calculations taking into consideration a lump sum payout & taxes. Buying a ticket becomes EV neutral when the Jackpot ~$285,000,000. Powerball has fewer numbers and becomes neutral ~$200,000,000. That being said I have 5 mega millions tickets for tonight.

Luzion

09-13-2005, 08:31 PM

Whats that movie where a bunch of friends win the lottery chipping in weekly? It ends with one friend killing all the other friends gruesomely so they can keep all the money. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

JihadOnTheRiver

09-13-2005, 08:36 PM

anybody know anybody personally that's won a big lottery score? i plan on doing it soon, just gotta find somebody to mentor me when i'm retarded rich....

pokerdirty

09-13-2005, 10:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

maybe I'm just not getting the concept...

posted odds from Mega-Millions website:

odds of hitting 5 numbers +1 mega-ball (Jackpot) = 1 in 175,711,536

current jackpot: 200,000,000 ++

If you were to purchase 1 ticket, for $1, then it is +EV, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Last time Mega Millions was in the $175,000,000 range (about 3 months ago) I did some rough EV calculations taking into consideration a lump sum payout & taxes. Buying a ticket becomes EV neutral when the Jackpot ~$285,000,000. Powerball has fewer numbers and becomes neutral ~$200,000,000. That being said I have 5 mega millions tickets for tonight.

[/ QUOTE ]

does this include the odds if you hit 5 numbers, 4 numbers, and all the other [censored] you can win with as well?

AndysDaddy

09-13-2005, 10:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Last time Mega Millions was in the $175,000,000 range (about 3 months ago) I did some rough EV calculations taking into consideration a lump sum payout & taxes. Buying a ticket becomes EV neutral when the Jackpot ~$285,000,000. Powerball has fewer numbers and becomes neutral ~$200,000,000. That being said I have 5 mega millions tickets for tonight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is still too low. You must also factor in that the higher the jackpot the more likely you are to split the pot with one or more other winners. Occasionally you hear about these huge pots being won by a single person, but usually its two or more.
--
Scott

pokerdirty

09-13-2005, 11:03 PM

i didn't win....what a [censored] sham

mmbt0ne

09-14-2005, 12:07 AM

<blockquote>En réponse à:<hr />
Whats that movie where a bunch of friends win the lottery chipping in weekly? It ends with one friend killing all the other friends gruesomely so they can keep all the money. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like Reindeer Games, except that wasn't about lottery money.

TheCroShow

09-14-2005, 02:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yet another retard uses +EV in a -EV fashion....

[/ QUOTE ]
huh?

[/ QUOTE ]
Why do you guys even pay attention to this guy. He's a 20+ year old gamer with a Dawson's Creek avatar. What can he post that is going to be worth reading anyway. If I wasn't such a nice guy he'd already be on ignore.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i was going to respond and say how wrong he was, but then i realized i would probably just be wasting my time. bummer.

rj

[/ QUOTE ]

my response was meant to be ironic. i use the dawson avatar because it's memorable and i think it's funny. i could be cool and use a face shot of myself or some cartoon guy slamming his face into the keyboard, but this one is funny to me.

HesseJam

09-14-2005, 03:50 AM

Killing yourself could be +EV

tek

09-14-2005, 09:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
anybody know anybody personally that's won a big lottery score? i plan on doing it soon, just gotta find somebody to mentor me when i'm retarded rich....

[/ QUOTE ]

About ten years ago a guy in my bowling league went in with a few guys from his work. They bought a shjtload of tickets and one of them hit. IIRC they took the annuity option for $8k per month.

sfer

09-14-2005, 11:18 AM

No winner, everyone is still working. For now. The next draw is on Friday, and the jackpot is now $250 MM. We will have one fewer member in our consortium for the next go round, so I can expect to have like ~$11 MM after I win and pay taxes and all. What should I plan on buying? Is MC Hammer's old mansion in Fremont CA still for sale?

JordanIB

09-14-2005, 11:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
anybody know anybody personally that's won a big lottery score? i plan on doing it soon, just gotta find somebody to mentor me when i'm retarded rich....

[/ QUOTE ]

About ten years ago a guy in my bowling league went in with a few guys from his work. They bought a shjtload of tickets and one of them hit. IIRC they took the annuity option for $8k per month.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anybody who takes the annuity option is dumb. The discount rate on the lump sum is something like 4%.

turnipmonster

09-14-2005, 11:32 AM

dude, lots of dumb people who would donk off the lump sum in 2 years buy lottery tickets. for someone like that taking the 8k/month option is a pretty good move.

Indiana

09-14-2005, 11:38 AM

Hitting powerball is 120million:1. When the prize is over 120 million it is +EV if u assume that only 1 person will hit. Being +EV is not very exciting alone, especially when its absolute value is $.0000000000000001.

Later, Indy

kyro

09-14-2005, 11:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hitting powerball is 120million:1. When the prize is over 120 million it is +EV if u assume that only 1 person will hit. Being +EV is not very exciting alone, especially when its absolute value is $.0000000000000001.

Later, Indy

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks professor. Because nobody here can do math.

JordanIB

09-14-2005, 11:43 AM

Good luck trying to avoid the taxes on a $120 million jackpot.

[ QUOTE ]
Hitting powerball is 120million:1. When the prize is over 120 million it is +EV if u assume that only 1 person will hit. Being +EV is not very exciting alone, especially when its absolute value is $.0000000000000001.

Later, Indy

[/ QUOTE ]

sfer

09-14-2005, 11:47 AM

http://images.art.com/images/products/large/10101000/10101880.jpg

cokehead

09-14-2005, 12:00 PM

Hey, I won $10. 2 numbers plus the mega number. now I can blow that $10 on tickets for fridays drawing.

megantw

09-14-2005, 12:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can expect to have like ~$11 MM after I win and pay taxes and all. What should I plan on buying? Is MC Hammer's old mansion in Fremont CA still for sale?

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Apartment that allows pets
2. DOGS
3. More bookshelves.

B Dids

09-14-2005, 12:16 PM

NY- where you hit an 11M score and still have to live in an apartment.

megantw

09-14-2005, 12:20 PM

UHOH!

sfer

09-14-2005, 12:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
NY- where you hit an 11M score and still have to live in an apartment.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apartment is a catchall in NY and can refer to renting or owning. But now is a pretty bad time to buy, methinks.

Lottery Larry

09-14-2005, 12:25 PM

If you net $60M for a few dollars, would you REALLY consider the bet -EV?

If so, your standards are higher than mine.

Lottery Larry

09-14-2005, 12:27 PM

Put in in the bank/investments and live off of the interest forever

sfer

09-14-2005, 12:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Put in in the bank/investments and live off of the interest forever

[/ QUOTE ]

I get to live forever too?

Lottery Larry

09-14-2005, 12:32 PM

"be warned that there is quite a bit of legal jurisprudence on lottery agreements among friends/co-workers. there is a chance your agreement might not consitute a contract in the eyes of the court. "

That's why my pool agreement/membership form is 7 pages long.

Lottery Larry

09-14-2005, 12:34 PM

If you can beat odds of 175M:1, anything is possible.

For $5M, I'll freeze you until it IS possible. Money in advance, please.

Crveballin

09-14-2005, 02:07 PM

Mega Millions up to $250 mill. No one won. Im sure I can scrounge up $10 in change that I find around my room and play. Ill post my numbers here after I get the tickets.

HoldEmKillah

09-14-2005, 04:24 PM

The way I see it is I either I hit the megamillions tonight or I don't. It's a 50/50 shot to win a million bucks and people say it's -EV? Whatever!

mblax10

09-14-2005, 09:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Last time Mega Millions was in the $175,000,000 range (about 3 months ago) I did some rough EV calculations taking into consideration a lump sum payout & taxes. Buying a ticket becomes EV neutral when the Jackpot ~$285,000,000. Powerball has fewer numbers and becomes neutral ~$200,000,000. That being said I have 5 mega millions tickets for tonight.

[/ QUOTE ]

does this include the odds if you hit 5 numbers, 4 numbers, and all the other [censored] you can win with as well?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it took into consideration all payouts. EV of a $1 mega millions ticket if their is no jackpot payout is about 14 cents. Lump sum payment I used was a very rough estimate however. And 3% state tax (Illinois) was used. So my calculation isn't 100% accurate, but I don't think it's very far off.

mblax10

09-14-2005, 09:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Last time Mega Millions was in the $175,000,000 range (about 3 months ago) I did some rough EV calculations taking into consideration a lump sum payout & taxes. Buying a ticket becomes EV neutral when the Jackpot ~$285,000,000. Powerball has fewer numbers and becomes neutral ~$200,000,000. That being said I have 5 mega millions tickets for tonight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is still too low. You must also factor in that the higher the jackpot the more likely you are to split the pot with one or more other winners. Occasionally you hear about these huge pots being won by a single person, but usually its two or more.
--
Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

How does the EV change when 2 people win $125,000,000 each instead of 1 person winning $250,000,000? The only way your EV would decline is if you pool your money within a group and therfore can not win 100% of the jackpot.

csuf_gambler

09-14-2005, 09:36 PM

i've been playing this damn lotto for 2 weeks. everytime i drive home from school on the freeway, i pass this huge billboard with the jackpots. and everyday it kept getting bigger. i couldn't stand it anymore so i started buying tickets.

$250 million
$37 million

holy fuking sh1t. a quarter of a fuking billion.

i have never asked for anything in my life, just let me hit this damn thing. just once, im not asking for much.

csuf_gambler

09-14-2005, 09:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Anybody who takes the annuity option is dumb. The discount rate on the lump sum is something like 4%.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't be stupid.

"A lucky player who wins $200 million, would receive equal payments of approximately $7.6 million a year (before taxes) for the next 26 years or the cash option would result in a prize higher than $100 million before taxes. A retailer who sells a winning ticket worth $200 million would receive a bonus of one million dollars (the highest bonus available) for selling the winning ticket."

hmmm

$197.6 million

or

$100 million

anyone who takes the lump sum is a dum fuk

mblax10

09-14-2005, 10:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Anybody who takes the annuity option is dumb. The discount rate on the lump sum is something like 4%.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't be stupid.

"A lucky player who wins $200 million, would receive equal payments of approximately $7.6 million a year (before taxes) for the next 26 years or the cash option would result in a prize higher than $100 million before taxes. A retailer who sells a winning ticket worth $200 million would receive a bonus of one million dollars (the highest bonus available) for selling the winning ticket."

hmmm

$197.6 million

or

$100 million

anyone who takes the lump sum is a dum fuk

[/ QUOTE ]

I really hope your jopking. Do you understand the concepts of Time Value of Money or Return on Investment?

If not, how about you send me $10,000, I'll agree to pay you $1050 every year for the next 10 years.

Lottery Larry

09-16-2005, 08:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]

$250 million
$37 million

i have never asked for anything in my life,

[/ QUOTE ]

Liar. And what's the 37 million? Did you mean 137M for the cash prize?

Lottery Larry

09-16-2005, 08:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Mega Millions up to $250 mill. No one won. Im sure I can scrounge up $10 in change that I find around my room and play. Ill post my numbers here after I get the tickets.

[/ QUOTE ]

So I can play the same numbers and cut your prize in half? Or so I'll know whether to move to your neighborhood?

csuf_gambler

09-16-2005, 09:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

$250 million
$37 million

i have never asked for anything in my life,

[/ QUOTE ]

Liar. And what's the 37 million? Did you mean 137M for the cash prize?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, its 2 separate jackpots. one is for the mega millions(250). the other one is for the california suppoer lotto, which is up to 41 million right now.

Blarg

09-16-2005, 10:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I just bought (partially) a lottery ticket for the first time and it's a good move. Everyone at work is buying a share of a ticket (apparently the jackpot in NY is high right now) at the urging of one of our admins. If they won and I was the guy who didn't get rich because I made a smart gamble, I would have to kill myself. Thus, the infinitesimal probability of not having to kill myself tomorrow is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no way I wouldn't blow my brains out if all my co-workers quit work rich and I had to stay on because I hadn't chipped in. That kept me buying tickets too. This is an excellent reason.

But when some people started trying to up the bi-weekly contributions to 5 and even 25 or 50 dollars, I got kind of pissed off and voted against it. I didn't want them murdering me that way! A buck or even two at a shot I don't mind, but five or 50 bucks? Screw that, that much I can actually imagine spending. Keeping it down to 1 or 2 dollars was a life and death struggle.

Blarg

09-16-2005, 10:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is just a recipe for disaster. I especially like how after the tickets are bought everyone sits around and talks about how they'll spend their share.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the fun and really the entire value of it. You're buying a few moments of happy fantasy. It's the people who talk about it as an investment that seriously scare the living crap out of me. Those people should have their ties, shoelaces, and belt buckles confiscated and be locked up somewhere soft and safe before they hurt themselves or others.

Blarg

09-16-2005, 10:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Whats that movie where a bunch of friends win the lottery chipping in weekly? It ends with one friend killing all the other friends gruesomely so they can keep all the money. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you've just described a universal human fantasy.