SD +3 -125?

[Back In Black]

I'm just starting out sportsbetting and need some general advice. I think this probably applies to many situations...

I really like SD to outright win, but is it worth it to take a game @ -125?

Maybe take the moneyline @ +125?

[playersare]

chargers seem to be the early value so far, and you can readily scalp Pinnacle with any book dealing +3 (-115). I would at least shop for a better price than -125.

[FishNChips]

[ QUOTE ]
chargers seem to be the early value so far, and you can readily scalp Pinnacle with any book dealing +3 (-115). I would at least shop for a better price than -125.

[/ QUOTE ]

Total nOOb question here:

I'm trying to get a handle on "scalping" .. you're betting both sides at different prices to gurantee a win, right? How is taking
Chargers -3 (-125)
and
Broncos +3 (-115)

guranteed to make money? If we assume 50% chance of chargers win and 50% chance of Broncos win (ignoring the 3pt chargers win) and betting 1 unit on each side, I get:

(0.8*0.5)-(1*0.5)+(0.87*.5)-(1*5) = -1.7

Again.. total noob and I know I'm missing something here - help please!

thanks,
FishNChips

[playersare]

you don't scalp opposing lines at the same book, obviously. you have to find another book dealing +3 (-115) or lower to bet against Pinnacle's current -3 (+117). then you have an approximate 50/50 chance to either win 2% of your bet on one side, or break even at the worst.

these are the bets I made earlier in the week. I'm not making money off the play itself, but I'm clearing a good chunk of rollover towards my initial deposit bonus (20% up to $500):

[PINNACLE]
46064103-1
1 2:04pm
13-Sep-05 1:15pm
18-Sep-05 Football
Spread San Diego Chargers vs Denver Broncos (-3) for Game +115 500.00 575.00

[BOWMANS]
2538667 Straight Risk/Win: 575/500
219 FG SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
+3 -115 9/18/2005 1:15:00 PM

now, had I took a lead on Bowmans first and then waited a day or two for Pinnacle +117, then I could have potentially won an additional $10 (actual EV about $5) on top of the $19.16 of bonus cleared at Bowmans (based on 30xB). but now, you see that Bowmans and most of the other softer books have moved to -125, which previously was a mediocre value but is now pretty much the consensus. so anyone who got in earlier (scalping or not) theoretically has the best of it. my friend booked a straight +3.5 -120 and is sitting pretty right now, for example. he can even buy back the half point at Pinnacle and make a risk-free profit of 9% going in either direction. however, the "smart money" is heavy on the chargers covering the line, so he'll probably just leave it open.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just starting out sportsbetting and need some general advice. I think this probably applies to many situations...

I really like SD to outright win, but is it worth it to take a game @ -125?



Maybe take the moneyline @ +125?

[/ QUOTE ]

I got the chargers at +3.5 -140 and Im sure its the right side. The question of course is the price. Whatever price you find, if you can get a 1/2pt for 20 cents then I would buy it, if not you should be able to get at least 3 -120 now.

take the money line +125 if your gonna bet the game or buy the half point as the above poster says to put it at 3.5, the reason for this is 1 and 2 point bronco wins are too rare and if the broncos win by 3 you just get the tie, thats a lot of odds to give up for the broncos 1 or 2 point win which is too rare

[FishNChips]

[ QUOTE ]
you don't scalp opposing lines at the same book, obviously. you have to find another book dealing +3 (-115) or lower to bet against Pinnacle's current -3 (+117). then you have an approximate 50/50 chance to either win 2% of your bet on one side, or break even at the worst.

these are the bets I made earlier in the week. I'm not making money off the play itself, but I'm clearing a good chunk of rollover towards my initial deposit bonus (20% up to $500):

[PINNACLE]
46064103-1
1 2:04pm
13-Sep-05 1:15pm
18-Sep-05 Football
Spread San Diego Chargers vs Denver Broncos (-3) for Game +115 500.00 575.00

[BOWMANS]
2538667 Straight Risk/Win: 575/500
219 FG SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
+3 -115 9/18/2005 1:15:00 PM

now, had I took a lead on Bowmans first and then waited a day or two for Pinnacle +117, then I could have potentially won an additional $10 (actual EV about $5) on top of the $19.16 of bonus cleared at Bowmans (based on 30xB). but now, you see that Bowmans and most of the other softer books have moved to -125, which previously was a mediocre value but is now pretty much the consensus. so anyone who got in earlier (scalping or not) theoretically has the best of it. my friend booked a straight +3.5 -120 and is sitting pretty right now, for example. he can even buy back the half point at Pinnacle and make a risk-free profit of 9% going in either direction. however, the "smart money" is heavy on the chargers covering the line, so he'll probably just leave it open.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks! I think I see how this works.

The OP was asking about the chargers +3 / -125 which means that the Broncos are -3 / +125 (is this correct?). Therefor you would take the broncos -3 / +125 at Pinnacle and go find the Chargers +3 / -115 somewhere else.

Thanks again!
FishNChips

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
The OP was asking about the chargers +3 / -125 which means that the Broncos are -3 / +125 (is this correct?). Therefor you would take the broncos -3 / +125 at Pinnacle and go find the Chargers +3 / -115 somewhere else.

[/ QUOTE ]
not exactly. for each book to preserve their own vig for each game, the +3 -125 on the chargers will generally carry -3 +105 for the broncos (this is called a "20-cent line"). a sharp book like Pinnacle deals an 8-cent line on NFL spreads, and they are choosing to offer denver -3 +117 while keeping the consensus +3 -125 flat with the other books. this is sometimes an indicator that the "smart money" bettors who place large bets at Pinnacle are not getting any juice discount vs. competition but are still playing them straight. therefore, Pinny is "begging" for value on the Broncos side which they have the opinion is going to lose.

so you could say that Pinnacle is telling you they do not want any more chargers action right now. they are offering scalpers "free money" to find a better price somewhere else and use their "wrong side" to cover action at the sloppy book's expense of having to pay out the potential winner. this is how an arbitrage opportunity comes up.

[scott8]

Great Post.

Yes, this is interesting. Please indulge me for a second here, because I want to make sure that I understand this.

What you're saying is that Pinnacle has seen plenty of Chargers action already, which concerns them, because they think the Chargers are going to win. Therefore, instead of offering a balanced "20-cent line", they've sweetened the Broncos odds without adjusting the Chargers side, which other, slower books may not have done. Therefore, sharp bettors may see an arbitrage opportunity in taking Pinnacle's sweetened Broncos odds and another book's standard Chargers odds. This guarantees Pinnacle an inbalance of "losing" action (the Broncos) - hopefully cancelling out the early run on the Chargers that they experienced - while another book gets stuck with the "winning" action (the Chargers).

Is that about right? Good info for someone like me who's played the lines as an amateur for awhile but never seen it from the perspective of the pros. Thanks.

[FishNChips]

Thank You!!!
Thank You!!!
Thank You!!!
Thank You!!!

I greatly appreciate you taking the time to 'splain this!

FishNChips

[FishNChips]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm just starting out sportsbetting and need some general advice. I think this probably applies to many situations...

I really like SD to outright win, but is it worth it to take a game @ -125?



Maybe take the moneyline @ +125?

[/ QUOTE ]

I got the chargers at +3.5 -140 and Im sure its the right side. The question of course is the price. Whatever price you find, if you can get a 1/2pt for 20 cents then I would buy it, if not you should be able to get at least 3 -120 now.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice job getting the extra half point here!

FishNChips