Hand vs. Fsuplayer

[ObnxNole]

Live $3/5 home game. The game is 5 handed. Fsuplayer is playing very LAG. He's won some big pots during the night, running hot as hell, and has already cracked my top set once earlier in the night.

Hero($1600) dealt 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif on the button. One limper and I raise $20 straight.
Fsuplayer($2000) calls in the big blind. Limper calls and it's 3 to the flop.

Flop: 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Fsuplayer leads for $40. Limper calls. I raise to $125. Fsuplayer quickly calls, limper folds.


Turn: 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I bet $275. He calls quickly.
Pot (~$810).

River: 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Fsuplayer leads for $500.

1. What range of hands can I put him on.
2. Call/Fold the river?

[BobboFitos]

you could put him on 7x or a handthat isnt as good as mid set

if he turned the straight you would've been c.r, he wants to play a big pot but he elected to just call. so he has a showdownable hand, a bluff (missed spades, really) or got lucky, picked up outs on the turn, then bet when he nailed his straight.

i call, sets are good hands and you only need to win ~28% of the time.

BTW, your flop raise is too little, bet ze pot = 220 total.

[AdamBragar]

How about underbetting the turn, like betting 100? I think I might do that with the made straight too. I think it forces him to define his hand more now. If he just calls, it's a cheaper river price to pick off a bluff or pay off the made straight. If he reraises, you've got to decide to rereraise or fold. But that's really read dependent. If you do reraise, he probably doesn't bet the river/reraise the turn without a hand that beats your set of 6's. And if he does still manage to bluff you out of the pot, good for him, he's outplayed you.

[Richie Rich]

I'd probably fold, but it's tough when you're getting better than 2-to-1.

Given his LAG image and the fact that he's on a rush, I think he'd be happy to play a marginal hand, like 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif-X /images/graemlins/spade.gif (maybe Ace or King), to see what develops on the flop. If he misses, it's easy to let go; if he hits, he could strike gold.

In this case, he knows you like your hand (set or two pair) because you raised the flop and bet the pot on the turn. And the fact that he just called your bets on both of those streets emphasizes that he isn't protecting a better hand...

His river bet is great. You aren't sure if it's for value, or if he's just trying to buy the pot on a somewhat scary board. But more often than not, he's good here, since you indicated how much you liked your hand on the flop and turn.

[muzungu]

1. I guess it's possible, but this seems like a strange line for a set/2 pair. So I put him on a flopped draw: spades (with or without the 7), 78, 45, or the tricky 75 double gutter.

I'm guessing fsuplayer is betting all of these, but it depends on his read. Your bet sizing (smaller on the flop, to get action, then bigger on the turn when the board gets a bit more coordinated) suggests a fairly strong made hand. So he might just value bet his winners and give up on his losers.

On the other hand, i dunno if he would call a potsized turn bet if he weren't planning to make a play at some of the scare cards that don't help him.

2. It's probably fairly close- you are getting a pretty good price, and I think he is bluffing once in a while here. I lean towards folding, but I prefer the trite but popular "go with your read", b/c that is what i do here.

My random guess: 75, or the supertricky 45 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I think you paid him off.

-muz

Is it not viable to put hero on an overpair here? That would be in my range of hands for him, and if so I would definitely try to push him off his hand on a board like that.

[neon]

I'm kinda surprised that people aren't mentioning diamonds more; Muz mentioned a few of them, but 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, or even something like A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (though fsu is prolly less likely to call Nole's flop raise w/ just a TP-type hand) all seem verrry possible here, in addition to just a seven or whatever, in terms of hands that you're behind.

That river bet's a real tickler. You guys could get into a whole game of, you know that fsu knows that you know that his river bet looks like a value bet, so is it a tricky bluff on a scary board? type stuff.

I think I tuck my tail between my legs and fold. If he has busted spades or air, then I tip my hat and chalk another one up to all the shiite you can get away w/ when you're running hot . . .

Good post.

P.S. Playing any at Prima lately?

[coltrane]

your flop raise was much too small...I would've made it double what you did, maybe more.....you still have lots of money behind and a bigger raise gets some money in the pot, gives you more information about his hand, and if a big raise seems like a "scared raise" from his perspective he might even raise you back with some kind of combo draw.....

if he calls a big flop raise, he obviously likes his hand enough to keep playing - it's time to start thinking about what he might have (especially with that turn card)....could he have 87?....remember, he led at the flop - would he do that with 87?....perhaps if he had 8s7s, but that's monster hand on the flop, did he look like had a monster? - remember he led for a pretty small amount, what does that mean for him?......

based on answers to these questions, I might either make a sizable bet on the turn (remember the pot would be much bigger now with a bigger flop raise) with the intention of folding to a raise (if you know he won't raise without the nuts here) or with the intention of calling any raise (if he's very capable of semi-bluff raising a combo draw); rarely I might check behind if I thought there was a very good chance he had either 87 or not a big hand with the intention of filling up or picking off a bluff.....

[Lucky]

Bigger raise on flop. Who knows, maybe he had 4s5s and was ready to bang on flop. He could have had bottom set. Your smallish raise causes you problems later and doesnt really give as great a chance to get it all in on flop. Based on how he's running, I may call and expect to see 7 a lot of the time.

[KaneKungFu123]

Call.

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]


1. What range of hands can I put him on.
2. Call/Fold the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like the classic blocking bet, call or push

[mgsimpleton]

definitely don't push, whoa.

um looks to me like very possible 9x diamonds... but i think you have to call given he might be value betting his two pair or bluffing (though it doesn't look like a bluff here to be honest)

[Yeti]

At the risk of looking like an idiot, I believe if you call this you are burning money.

IF hes playing lag, then there is no range of hands you can put him on. Your best move is to go all in on the flop.. Even if you are beat by the str8, you still have plenty of outs to win...

Lags play lots of flops because they think they can outplay you from the flop to the river... Going all in (or raising a large amount, nullifies that

I do the same thing when im playing with a crew who i know i can beat... I lag the [censored] out of the game and get a few on tilt...

It sounds like hes trying to play you guys 4 real...

[JihadOnTheRiver]

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Your best move is to go all in on the flop..

[/ QUOTE ]

are u awake right now?

[fsuplayer]

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Even if you are beat by the str8, you still have plenty of outs to win...

[/ QUOTE ]


which straight is that?

[mgsimpleton]

think he meant on the turn, not the flop.

btw im revising my opinion before, i didn't realize hero had raised on the button, there is no way fsuplayer is value betting a worse hand here because hero's hand is not defined so clearly as an overpair, in fact it is quite likely to be one... IMO he backed into some sort of backdoor draw and has you beat, it's either a bluff or a straight/flush so basically the question is whether you think it's a bluff the requisite percentage of the time.

[fsuplayer]

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think he meant on the turn, not the flop.

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Your best move is to go all in on the flop.. Even if you are beat by the str8, you still have plenty of outs to win...

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[TheWorstPlayer]

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think he meant on the turn, not the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

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Your best move is to go all in on the flop.. Even if you are beat by the str8, you still have plenty of outs to win...

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[fsuplayer]

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think he meant on the turn, not the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

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Your best move is to go all in on the flop.. Even if you are beat by the str8, you still have plenty of outs to win...

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ahhh, gotcha /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[HoldEmKillah]

Where in god's name do you guys find home games with $2k stacks??? I'm so jealous! (Not in boston, are ya? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif)

[Jason Strasser]

Good post.

[Niwa]

Why arent you posting more often?

[ObnxNole]

Thankyou for all the responses guys. I originally put him on an overpair or big spades on the flop, however I didn't think he would call the turn with an overpair. A lot of you guys hit it right on the head saying he had a straight draw with spades or diamonds. I called the river... he flipped 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Oh well... there's always next time.

[mgsimpleton]

surprised he wasn't more aggro with his double gutter/flush draw... fsuplayer can you comment on this, is it because you think the double gutter has huge implied odds (assuming the T doesn't get there)? or is it because you firmly put hero on a set? or was it because the stacks were awkward whereby getting it all in is impossible if he does't have you beat and a reraise makes it awkward on the turn OOP (probably this one, huh)?

problem with bet/call, check/call, check/fold or lead on completion is if hero has an overpair here, the implied odds are far worse and the fold equity on the flop is far greater...

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
surprised he wasn't more aggro with his double gutter/flush draw... fsuplayer can you comment on this, is it because you think the double gutter has huge implied odds (assuming the T doesn't get there)? or is it because you firmly put hero on a set? or was it because the stacks were awkward whereby getting it all in is impossible if he does't have you beat and a reraise makes it awkward on the turn OOP (probably this one, huh)?

[/ QUOTE ]


all of those, yes.



[ QUOTE ]
problem with bet/call, check/call, check/fold or lead on completion is if hero has an overpair here, the implied odds are far worse and the fold equity on the flop is far greater...

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i have played thousands of hands with the hero, he's my roommate, and he still has the problem of underbetting (and especially underraising) with his monsters.

i was about 90% sure he had 66/99 here, with AA a small possibility, but once he bets the turn that big, AA is out.

we were so deep that if i reraise, it becomes very awkward if i miss on the turn, and an all in there screams a big draw, and there is a big 0% chance he lays down a set here against me the way i play in the home game.

also, as you said, a 4 stacks him everytime on the turn or river. the 10 on the turn sucked, and made my turn call close. i needed to get 200 on the river to make the call neutral EV wise, and i knew id get that easy.

i love to gamble in that game and push people around, and normally id get as many chip as possible on the flop, but i had a good read, and went with it.


btw, your posts have improved a huge amount. I scan for them alot now. nice job.

[coltrane]

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i love to gamble in that game and push people around, and normally id get as many chip as possible on the flop, but i had a good read, and went with it.



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agree with everything you're saying Mike, but two things - one, did you think about checkraising the turn big and two, what was your plan if you missed on the river?...

[fsuplayer]

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i love to gamble in that game and push people around, and normally id get as many chip as possible on the flop, but i had a good read, and went with it.



[/ QUOTE ]

agree with everything you're saying Mike, but two things - one, did you think about checkraising the turn big and two, what was your plan if you missed on the river?...

[/ QUOTE ]

again, I was very confident of my read of a set, and he's not folding on the turn very much at all, since only one hand beats him, and there are now two flush draws as well as straight draws, and given my affinity for semi-bluffing, I dont think he folds the turn.

the river i was giving up if i miss, for the reasons i just gave mostly. folding sets against me is not something that happens at that game, like never.

[Shaun]

I think you need to pay him off. He could have two pair or 45s, and while he could certainly have you beat, the pot is big enough, and he is good enough to make this sized bet to make you outhink yourself and fold the best hand.