Classic Donk Raise - Your move??

[ezmogee]

Just thought I'd post this to see how a variety of people play the following hand. What do you think is +EV here and why?

You are in the Big Blind with AQo, all fold to button who makes a 6xBB raise for 25% of his stack. You're 8 tabling so you don't have much in the way of reads.

NL Texas Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:15698383 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) - Tuesday, September 13, 12:12:45 EDT 2005
Table Table 11563 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: x1 ( $1775 )
Seat 3: Villian ( $1130 )
Seat 4: x2 ( $1100 )
Seat 5: Hero ( $985 )
Seat 6: x3 ( $850 )
Seat 7: x4 ( $1570 )
Seat 9: x5 ( $590 )
Trny:15698383 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Qd Ac ]
x3 folds.
x4 folds.
x5 folds.
x1 folds.
Villian raises [300].
x2 folds.
ACTION ON YOU

[durron597]

I would fold, 99% of the time he has a small pair and isn't folding to your push.

[psyduck]

fold it up beyotch!

[downtown]

Fold & take the t50 loss. What does he have? Small pair is likely, but honestly who knows, you're not sticking t250 or more in to find out.

[EnderFFX]

Fold, at 50-100 I'm pushing back. Would this be the right line at the 50-100 blind level?

[Sciolist]

With the same chips, yes, I think so.

Though having said that, my first instinct is call... I think I might need to work on my first instincts :]

[ezmogee]

I agree that fold is certainly a reasonable option. However, I believe that push is the optimal play here. Here's why:

Let's say he has a mid pocket pair 33-88 60% of the time. He folds this to my push 33% of the time and I win the coinflip 45%.

Let's say he has Ax 30% of the time. He folds to my push 40% of the time, and I win the allin nearly 70% of the time.

Let's say he has JJ 5% of the time. He calls instantly and I'm a 58/42 dog.

Let's say he has QQ or AK 5% of the time, and I'm 30% against each. I give QQ and AK less frequency, because they're both unlikely given my hand, and the way he plays it.

I'm willing to rule out KK and AA cause I don't see anyone making that raise on the button given rockets or cowboys.

Given this thinking (if correct), is pushing now the optimal play?

[bones]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say he has a mid pocket pair 33-88 60% of the time. He folds this to my push 33% of the time and I win the coinflip 45%.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think he's on a small pair but want to play the hand, then I think a stop n go is more in order than a push.

I think your options are allin or fold. Easily exclude calling unless you have some fancy plan. I ran the numbers:

I calculate as follows:
Hand,combonations,likelihood of him making this move or similar, odds of you winning:

88-JJ, 48 combos, 80%, 0.450
QQ, 9, 60%, 0.300
KK, 9, 60%, 0.300
AA, 9, 60%, 0.100
AK, 12, 50%, 0.250
AQ, 9, 10%, 0.500
AJ, 12, 5%, 0.710
Bluff: ~10% he has misc. hand, which you can beat 0.620 of the time

Summing that means you are 37% to win if you get to see all the cards. If you go allin, the worse hands will fold, and lets say half of the JJ-88 would too. Thus the hands that would call your all in, you'd be 0.300 to win. Here's the breakdown if you go allin:

30% opp will fold: +375
21% opp will call, but you will win: +985
49% opp will call and eliminate you -985

Expectation: -173

You should fold.