Scalping opportunity gone bad, what would you do?

[ctv1116]

Ok, so basically I misread a line on Hollywood, thinking I was betting AZ +1.5 when really I was betting AZ -1.5. Thus, I am now stuck in a -EV reverse middle, where I will lose $5200 if the Stl/Az is won by exactly one point or is tied, and will win $81 if the winning margin is 2 or greater. Given that the winning margin is exactly 1 4.3% of the time, the EV of this bet is -$148.70. If I just take the reverse of each of the bets I've just done, I am guaranteed to lose $225.67. If you were in my shoes would you take the risk of the reverse middle, or aceept the sure loss?

[chiachu]

how bad is a $5200 loss for you?

Im assuming that this would be a huge blow to your bankroll, or else you would automatically take the less -EV situation. Losing ~$75 in EV doesnt seem too bad to me, if this is the case.

[Losing all]

I'd be sick if I lost $5200 on this play, would you? Take the hit and save your sanity.

[ctv1116]

A $5200 loss would be about half of what I set aside for sports betting.

[chiachu]

[ QUOTE ]
A $5200 loss would be about half of what I set aside for sports betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

take the sure loss.
the amount of EV you'd lose by losing half your roll (from not being able to bet as big and such) is probably higher then the $75.

[MHoydilla]

Take the sure loss if your a long term winning sports better because your long term EV on the money should more than off-set $77 extra in vig. There is a value of having actual $$$$ on hand, dont forget that.

[craig r]

I chose take the sure loss. I think the theory here, though I don't think sklansky is a great sports bettor, but his ideas can come into play: Sometimes it is better to pass up the greater EV situation now, in order to have an even higher ev situation later. Which, I am sure you will have.

But, you can also let it ride and find out if God hates you. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

craig