Fantasy Baseball: LABR standings through 4/30

[Dynasty]

All is going very well in LABR (League of Alternative Baseball Reality) for D.Y.N.A.S.T.Y. I'm in first place with a 12 point lead over the second place team and a 21 point lead over the third place team.

I've got the best offenese in the league despite an outfield which has performed very badly. Marty Cordova, Ron Gant, and Dee Brown have all been removed from my active roster and recently replaced with Larry Bigbie, Craig Monroe, and Jeff DaVanon. If I can somehow patch together a productive outfield, my offense could be devastating.

My pitching has also been very strong. Chan Ho Park was a disaster in the first four weeks of the season but he won't be getting any more innings on my team. Despite Park's and a couple other pitcher's poor performances, I still have very strong ERA and Ratio numbers. With Pedro Martinez leading the way, I can win both of those categories. I should also finish strongly in Saves, even win it, with Eddie Guardado and Lance Carter as my two closers.

Here's a link to the standings:

http://usafantasy2.tqstats.com/baseball/scripts/wwwstand.pl?labral&whence=mIAxVlpJpywUVzxwDsztDkKB vOB

All advice is welcome.

[IrishHand]

I've followed your team's progress since you forwarded the link and it's done a lot better than I expected.

Your offense has been, as you noted, outstanding. However, I'd be somewhat concerned about having 5 complete holes in it (eg. non-contributors to any category) - the 3 OFs you cited, as well as Zeile and Mohr. Of course, the reserve list rules of LABR make it mission (near-) impossible to pick up contributors from the FA pool. How does this play out in the long run? I think that despite your zeros with the stick, you should still be in good shape in the Avg, HR, RBI departments. The stiffs won't touch the average, and most of your big guns are high-average hitters. Your steals are bound to fall off a cliff, in my estimation. You've basically only got Hairston and he's on pace for what? 50 steals? That'll never happen. Anderson and A-Rod will chip in a few, but the former's not a real threat and the latter's lost interest in the SB (as most young 4-category guys seem to) over the past couple years.

It's your pitching staff that should be more cause for concern, in my mind. Meche is your top performing starter to date, just ahead of Pedro b/c of the extra win. I don't deny that he could put together a decent year, but it seems to be something around 15-10 with a 3.60 would be the best you can reasonably expect. Park is proof that sensible starters should never leave Dodger stadium if they can avoid it. There's a laundry list of guys who went from great to average or worse upon their departure from Chavez Ravine. At any rate - a starting staff of Pedro, Meche and Park only is, in the long run, a middle of the pack staff. I don't see how you can finish in the top 1/2 of the wins category - Carter's 3 are, as I'm sure you know, a complete aberration and it seems like each of your mediocre relievers has contributed one to the cause. Once the lofty numbers currently held by Meche, Hasegawa, Grimsley, Carter, Guardado and Shields come back to earth (you've gotta figure that all but 1 or 2 will have a dramatic increase in ERA/Ration over the course of the year), I'd say you're looking at an ERA/Whip somewhere between 3rd and 6th - good, but a decrease. Combine that with the loss in points on the wins side, and I'd say you can reasonably expect to lose at least 5 points in the pitching categories.

Don't get me wrong - I think you're in good shape and it's certainly the case that your competitiors have teams with equally unfortunate holes, but I think it's clear that your team is overachieving at the moment and, short of some moves, can't maintain it's current points lead. FWIW, I think that the Roto Times team, given MacDougal's excellence, is better than yours overall.

[Dynasty]

I think your right about my offense. I should be a contender in Avg, HR, and RBIs the whole season. Stolen Bases is a tricky category. If I can deal for a base stealer I'll be in good shape. While Hairston is doing better than I expected, I'm not shocked that he's having his breakout season. He's 26 years old, hit very well in the second half of 2002, and had a great spring. He'll continue to bat leadoff, hit about .275-.290 for the season, and steal lots of bases (35-45).

However, I think your wrong about my pitching. My staff is basically going to be Pedro, Meche, and seven good relievers. Park is getting reserved and won't be coming back up. That will indeed cost me a few points in the Wins category but other teams are low on starters too.

You're wrong assessing the other categories. A Pedro-led reliever staff is going to be great in ERA and Ratio. I think I've got an excellent chance to win both of those categories. While some of my relievers have been outstanding, it's been offset and then-some by the disaterous ERA/Ratios of Park, Mendoza, and Fiore (released) to date.

Carter combined with Guardado and 5 good middle relievers practically guarantees me a top 3 finish in Saves with and excellent chance of winning the category.

As far as McDougal goes, he's pitched lousy but been very fortunate. They guy hasn't been throwing strikes all season but the teams he's facing haven't been forcing him to go deep into counts. That's staring to change. I would not be surprised to see him lose his closer job by the end of May. He may be in the minors by the All-Star break.

[Dynasty]

BTW, Gil Meche's performance against the Yankees on Tuesday was really exciting. He's always had the tools to be a great pitcher.

Thanks for all the comments.