NFL Week 2 Poll

[NoChance]

I'm getting this post up early this week. Lines are as of Monday night.

*There was a different thread up that I had Tech delete in order to add a "no bet" option for each game. For those who already voted, please do so again. Also, do your best to pick as many of the games as possible unless you are truely undecided. The results will be better.

[NoChance]

Bumping this up so it does not get buried.

So far there are zero games with a 70% edge to one team. Last week we had five of those games (not counting New England because that went up after the game was complete) and we would have gone 2-3 as a group winning only with Cincinnati and Indianapolis, but losing with St Louis, Denver, and Philadelphia. I think people are already getting smarter or the lines are better this week.

[fnurt]

There are plenty of games with a 70% edge among those actually betting; it's the inclusion of the "no bet" option that makes a difference between this week and last. For example, the Washington-Dallas game is currently 13-2 among those betting, a huge disparity.

You probably already tallied this NoChance, but since I was curious, I thought I'd share the poll's success in week 1. On bets with a greater than 60% concensus, the poll came out 4-5, and on bets with a greater than 70%, the poll came out 3-3. A slow start, but that's democracy for you.

[NoChance]

The New England game doesn't count. Most of those votes came in on Friday and Saturday, after the game was complete. At gametime, it was pretty close to 50/50.

Wow, just like a real democracy. Cool.

bump

[NoChance]

There are currently six teams picked greater than 70%.

Six other teams are between 60% and 70%.

another bump

[DropGems]

Mike Golic called my celly and informed me of this...

[jedinite]

From ESPN.com's poll:

1) Detroit at Chicago: Who wins?

81.0% Detroit
19.0% Chicago

2) Minnesota at Cincinnati: Who wins?

62.3% Cincinnati
37.7% Minnesota

3) Baltimore at Tennessee: Who wins?

85.4% Baltimore
14.6% Tennessee

4) Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Who wins?

90.2% Indianapolis
9.8% Jacksonville

5) San Francisco at Philadelphia: Who wins?

90.3% Philadelphia
9.7% San Francisco

6) Buffalo at Tampa Bay: Who wins?

54.8% Buffalo
45.2% Tampa Bay

7) New England at Carolina: Who wins?

77.7% New England
22.3% Carolina

8) Pittsburgh at Houston: Who wins?

93.4% Pittsburgh
6.6% Houston

9) St. Louis at Arizona: Who wins?

53.9% St. Louis
46.1% Arizona

10) Atlanta at Seattle: Who wins?

78.6% Atlanta
21.4% Seattle

11) San Diego at Denver: Who wins?

76.6% San Diego
23.4% Denver

12) Cleveland at Green Bay: Who wins?

81.9% Green Bay
18.1% Cleveland

13) Miami at New York Jets: Who wins?

61.2% New York Jets
38.8% Miami

14) Kansas City at Oakland: Who wins? (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

71.0% Kansas City
29.0% Oakland

15) New Orleans at New York Giants (originally a NO home game, moved to NY in the wake of Hurrican Katrina): Who wins? (Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

52.9% New Orleans
47.1% New York Giants

16) Washington at Dallas: Who wins? (Monday, 9:00 p.m. ET, ABC)

85.1% Dallas
14.9% Washington

Total Votes: 45,849

10) Atlanta at Seattle: Who wins?

78.6% Atlanta
21.4% Seattle

11) San Diego at Denver: Who wins?

76.6% San Diego
23.4% Denver

[NoChance]

These can't be against the spread though. On the ESPN one, there are a few over 90%. That must be just picking the winner straight up.

Having said that, that makes these choices interesting because the ESPN poll says people think these underdogs will win the game straight up as underdogs:

6) Buffalo at Tampa Bay: Who wins?

54.8% Buffalo
45.2% Tampa Bay

9) St. Louis at Arizona: Who wins?

53.9% St. Louis
46.1% Arizona

10) Atlanta at Seattle: Who wins?

78.6% Atlanta
21.4% Seattle

11) San Diego at Denver: Who wins?

76.6% San Diego
23.4% Denver

I really like these HOME teams this week.

[jedinite]

Yeah, they're just picking winners straight up - but I still think its useful information, especially as you pointed out re: the underdogs perceived to win.

[MyTurn2Raise]

bump...less than 12 hours til kickoffs

[MrDannimal]

For a poll like this, a "No Bet" option is silly (and makes it much harder to track results).

Is there a way to make it so that not all poll questions have to be answered? Then people would skip games they would "No Bet", and you'd still get a 100% total for fav/dog.

I only "No Bet" the Pittsburgh game, because of Big Ben's status.

[NoChance]

I agree with you and figured this would happen but most wanted it this way. I've got something in mind for next week. I think I would add an "extra game" where the only choice is to select "I don't want to vote. I just want to see the results". Then add an additional disclaimer at the top that tells everyone they don't have to bet every game if making picks. Just skip the ones you are unsure of.

I think that would make everyone happy in not forcing anyone to vote while still seeing the results and also making it easier to see the true percentages.

[NoChance]

Here is the 2+2 consensus at kickoff of the early games (need to record in case people vote when the games are completed):

83.7% NE

79.7% Bal
75.3% SD
73.6% Was
70.1% Atl

68.6% KC
67.4% Det
63.5% Pit
61.3% Cin
60.6% Phi

58.8% Buf
58.4% Jac
57.7% Mia
56.7% GB
56.0% NYG
54.2% Ari

[fnurt]

Did you get Dallas and Washington backwards?

[NoChance]

Yes. Thank you. Everyone take note.

[lorinda]

No Chance.

Could you do a little scoring system where the amount staked is the %age of votes, just purely for interest value over the season?

Lori

[NoChance]

[ QUOTE ]
83.7% NE (L)

79.7% Bal (L)
75.3% SD (P)
73.6% Dal (L)
70.1% Atl (L)

[/ QUOTE ]

2+2 top 5 go 0-4-1 /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Will post week 3 in a day or so. Two games do not have lines yet.