$55 party heads up play

[SCfuji]

villain seems reasonable preflop. he folded sometimes on his sb with a 2:1 chip lead in the previous level until i sucked out on him and took a big lead. i have been steal-pushing 3 out of the last 5 hands when he limped or it was my sbb.



***** Hand History for Game 2701363920 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:15683854 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) - Monday, September 12, 21:52:42 EDT 2005
Table Table 11774 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 2
Seat 2: villain( $1788 )
Seat 7: hero( $8212 )
Trny:15683854 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to hero[ 5s 7h ]

push or fold?

[Isura]

I think it's a fold.

Edit: But it depends whether he considers 4bb desperation time, or will make an incorrect fold and "wait for a better hand".

[Degen]

once the blinds hit 200-400 you should be pushing at least 60% of the time, and yes this is easily a pushing hand

fold

This is a definite fold I think. Yeah, you want to push and steal as much as you can, but anytime I'm down 4 times with the blinds this big heads up I'm not gonna fold anything heads up respectable, so you have to figure he's gonna make his move soon going in on something like J-10, K-8, etc....if you push here and he calls your in definite trouble of putting him back in the game. Wait for a better moment and don't waste your chip lead on hands you'd likely be so far behind in.

[SCfuji]

i think another argument can be made about letting him back into the game by not stealing this big blind.

I'm not against the attempt at stealing at all, I also think your patterns might come into effect here. Have you been pushing to steal big blind numerous times without getting caught leading to the assumption all your doing is trying to steal and not putting the fear of a strong hand in? I just don't think this is a risk worth taking, with this level of blinds taking the 600 is not going to matter as much as the risk of him doubling up off such a poor starting hand with the realization that he's going to (assuming he's reasonable as you've said) push anything respectable anyways.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
once the blinds hit 200-400 you should be pushing at least 60% of the time, and yes this is easily a pushing hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhm, not sure where you get the 60% number, but you seem to be leaving out a lot of information.

[MegaBet]

Definite definite fold.

Degen: Definitely wondering your reasoning for thinking this is a pushing hand/situation?

[ChuckNorris]

I usually push 32o here, and the villains usually fold. Even the "loosest" $55'er villains aren't likely to be calling with much more than 50% of their hands here. You need a good reason not to push. I'm suprised at how many of you are folding this. If you've folded as many as 2 of your last 5 hands and you haven't seen villain calling you with worse than jack high or something or know that he's a really good player, push push push.

[Shillx]

Push. He has to call into the Tx's to make this a fold. It is one of those spots where you are either taking slightly the worst of it or way the best of it (i.e. he folds far too much). Pushing anything here is never going to be a significant mistake.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually push 32o here, and the villains usually fold. Even the "loosest" $55'er villains aren't likely to be calling with much more than 50% of their hands here. You need a good reason not to push. I'm suprised at how many of you are folding this. If you've folded as many as 2 of your last 5 hands and you haven't seen villain calling you with worse than jack high or something or know that he's a really good player, push push push.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really REALLY bad advice.

[SCfuji]

its tough to listen to a drunk baby... =]

i ended up folding this but i was really itching to push - you know me brad =]. but i feel that i have been pushing far too much and also calling a bit too loosely ill have to post some of those later. whenever i cant make a decision i fold - its the safe route at the time until i know any better. this was my $55 cherry popping tourney so i wanted to know what others thought.

thanks,
fuji

[MegaBet]

Did you end up winning the tourney?

[SCfuji]

yup good start to my "stab-taking" at the 55s

[ QUOTE ]
I usually push 32o here, and the villains usually fold. Even the "loosest" $55'er villains aren't likely to be calling with much more than 50% of their hands here. You need a good reason not to push. I'm suprised at how many of you are folding this. If you've folded as many as 2 of your last 5 hands and you haven't seen villain calling you with worse than jack high or something or know that he's a really good player, push push push.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is horrible! His stack is to the point where he's gonna gamble because he doesn't want to get low enough that doubling up doesn't gain him much. Right now he doubles up and he makes a much better chunk than folding until he gets something good and has nothing to make by doubling. Put yourself in villian's position...you want a shot at first you push yourself very, very soon, and even on any two your likely behind. Do not let him get back into this by being dumb here.

[Sciolist]

If you're pushing 60% of the time, this isn't a top 60% hand. Personally, I aim for more like pushing with top 40% hands when one player has ~10bb or less.

[kevkev60614]

For the love of God, be nice when you respond to this. Everyone is in agreement that I'm wrong, I just want to know what's wrong with my logic. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Will someone explain to me why calling and folding to a push here is wrong? HOH2 that you should almost always at least call from the SB when HU, unless your opponent is constantly raising. I know Harrington wasn't talking specifically about HU with a shortstacked opponent, but calling and folding to a push only loses you 1/2 a BB, and it doesn't seem like villian is pushing that much. If he checks, he's probably weak. You may be able to bully him out, or you may have flopped something yourself.

Call/fold is not a bad idea. If he's weak and this low chip stack he won't re-raise you without a strong hand since he doesn't know your hand strength, and you can see three cards for a cheap price and maybe you'll get a favorable flop.

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I usually push 32o here, and the villains usually fold. Even the "loosest" $55'er villains aren't likely to be calling with much more than 50% of their hands here. You need a good reason not to push. I'm suprised at how many of you are folding this. If you've folded as many as 2 of your last 5 hands and you haven't seen villain calling you with worse than jack high or something or know that he's a really good player, push push push.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is really REALLY bad advice.


[/ QUOTE ]

Then show me what's really REALLY bad about it.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I usually push 32o here, and the villains usually fold. Even the "loosest" $55'er villains aren't likely to be calling with much more than 50% of their hands here. You need a good reason not to push. I'm suprised at how many of you are folding this. If you've folded as many as 2 of your last 5 hands and you haven't seen villain calling you with worse than jack high or something or know that he's a really good player, push push push.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is really REALLY bad advice.


[/ QUOTE ]

Then show me what's really REALLY bad about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ususally do explain my decisions, but I felt no need to explain this one. It's awful. Shorty is getting to the point where his range of calling hands is huge. You have him on the ropes. Why let him back in the game pushing 75 (or 32o in your example) ?

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
I ususally do explain my decisions, but I felt no need to explain this one. It's awful. Shorty is getting to the point where his range of calling hands is huge. You have him on the ropes. Why let him back in the game pushing 75 (or 32o in your example) ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because shorty's calling range should be huge, doesn't mean that it is. They need to be calling with Tx or something like it to make this move -EV. And by x I don't just mean 9 or 8. I'd venture to say that the average villain doesn't even call with 50% of their hands here, which clearly makes this a profitable push with 32o. Of course this depends on the situation and the villain, and it is sometimes correct to fold 32o. But pushing should be the default here, and you should need a good reason to fold if you do IMO.

I'm not certain what part of this you disagree with. The calling ranges I assume or the "math" part.

Edit: You still didn't really explain your decision, you just said "pushing is -ev, folding is +ev" in a fancier way /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[MegaBet]

You're giving villain too much credit for a fold IMO. This is where we disagree.

[Ogre]

i fold

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
You're giving villain too much credit for a fold IMO. This is where we disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case all we can do is /images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="pink">agree to disagree</font> /images/graemlins/heart.gif

But seriously, if you NEVER, or almost never push 32o here you are missing a lot of $$$. I guess the "average" or "general" situation is somewhat irrelevant, since you always need to make individual reads when heads up.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're giving villain too much credit for a fold IMO. This is where we disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case all we can do is /images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="pink">agree to disagree</font> /images/graemlins/heart.gif

But seriously, if you NEVER, or almost never push 32o here you are missing a lot of $$$. I guess the "average" or "general" situation is somewhat irrelevant, since you always need to make individual reads when heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, let's agree to disagree (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=3400644&amp;page=0&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=&amp;vc=1&amp;PHPSESSID=) /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I apologize if it seemed like I was attacking you Chuck. I just think if the villian is reasonable he reckons the fact that a double up here puts him on the road to back in it while a double up later is insignificant. As such I see him pushing any two here and if he does you are likely in trouble due to the fact your starting hand is so weak. I say fold and then push him when you have a stronger starting hand as opposed to pushing when you are weak when he is likely in a position to call. Just my opinion.

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]

I apologize if it seemed like I was attacking you Chuck. I just think if the villian is reasonable he reckons the fact that a double up here puts him on the road to back in it while a double up later is insignificant. As such I see him pushing any two here and if he does you are likely in trouble due to the fact your starting hand is so weak. I say fold and then push him when you have a stronger starting hand as opposed to pushing when you are weak when he is likely in a position to call. Just my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

It didn't occur to me that you were attacking anobody. I certainly agree with you if the villain is reasonable. I don't think that villains at $55's are all that reasonable. They are very weak/tight in situations like this. Hell, you see villains folding to all-ins with 2:1 or even BETTER odds almost daily when it doesn't make any sense whatsoever. And this is much better. You're effectively pushing 4BB and have a lot (more than you should have) of FE.

He said the villlian seemed reasonable at the start of the post, therefore I'm thinking he realizes he should call here with nearly anything to give himself a shot. And if he does call we are likely in a bad situation.