What would you do with this bet???

[LotsOfOuts69]

Two months ago I was in vegas for the WSOP and placed $100 bet on the Astros to win the NL Pennant at 40-1. At the time they were just getting hot and the line hadn't changed (I heard they only move these types of lines on Tuesdays).

My plan on making the bet wasn't that I thought the Astros were going to beat the Cardinals for the pennant, but rather that they had a good chance of winning the wild card and the fact that they would play the Braves in the NLDS. This way i could hedge my bet in some way to make a profit if they are closde to winning the wild card at the end of the year.

I was wondering what you guys would do with this bet. Are there any good current opportunities to hedge? Should I let it ride to see if they make the playoffs and take it from there? I don't do much Sports betting so i was just wondering what you guys thought. Thanks!

--LoO

[tech]

That's tricky. Right now Houston is about 12 to 1 to win the pennant. Even if they win the wild card, you won't get a whole lot better than that unless they win the division series.

Basically you should look at the new bet you would have to make to hedge, and see if you think it is +EV. If it is not, there isn't really any reason to hedge (unless of course you need to guarantee a profit for financial reasons). Good luck either way, and stay off my tables at the Party SNGs. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
That's tricky. Right now Houston is about 12 to 1 to win the pennant. Even if they win the wild card, you won't get a whole lot better than that unless they win the division series.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's incorrect - Houston should be no worse than 7-1 if they win the WC. And they'd probably be a good bet at 7-1. By comparison, San Diego is only +669 to win the pennant (WSEX), and they've virtually clinched a bid to the postseason. No way SD is as good as Houston.

[tech]

You can't sell SD at +669. That is the ask. You have to lay about 9 to 1 to sell them.

[tech]

One other thought as I think about this more ... I am not a big baseball handicapper, but if Houston does make it to the playoffs, I would give them a good chance to go far. They have the pitching to make a real run, especially in a short series.

[DougOzzzz]

Okay, you're right.

And also, I think the OP is aware that he'd have to make a negative expectation bet to guarantee a win. Still, I think you could probably sell them at 7-1 or so if they do make the playoffs.

They do probably have a good shot at winning the pennant if they win the WC. Not many teams (if any) can match the 1-2 combination of Clemens/Oswalt.

[tech]

Hmmmm, you make a good point. Because of their potential in the postseason, that will indeed cause the line to come down. On the other hand, that would make me not want to hedge. My head hurts. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmmm, you make a good point. Because of their potential in the postseason, that will indeed cause the line to come down. On the other hand, that would make me not want to hedge. My head hurts. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes well, it's definitely a good thing from the OP's perspective that the Astros are probably a good playoff team. Whether or not he hedges, his expected value is significantly higher.

I've had my temptations to hedge futures bets myself. I made fairly large bets on the Sox and the A's to win their divisions before the season.

Both bets could have been turned into a nice profit for a while now. I haven't liked the prices on the Angels or the Yankees to win the division at all though, so I've resisted thus far.

[LotsOfOuts69]

Sorry for the bump, but I was just wondering if anyone had some new thoughts on this? Glad the Astros made the playoffs, I have yet to hedge anything and still have full value on my ticket. However, at this point I know I can make a sure profit. Any thoughts would be appriciated!

--LoO

[maxpowers21]

What do you guys think the true line is for the Padres to beat the Cardinals in the division series or to make it to the World Series?

[whipsaw]

I honestly can't imagine that it's any more lopsided than +200/-200, and I would place the true value somewhere around +175/-175, considering how they've played each other this year. SDG won 3 of 4 in STL during the regular season.