Quiz - Family pot flop play with MPTK

[ClaytonN]

First hand of table. 800 kabillion limpers. How do you play this flop?

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $1.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 (poster) checks, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero...</font>

[Vote4Pedro]

Wow, I'm on crack...

Just call the flop, you arent "cleaning" up any outs by raising. Had there been a diamond on that flop, the pots big enough to jack it up

I think you can play it. All of your outs are likely to the best hand. It doesn't seem like it's a very aggressive table and even if it is raised somewhere behind you there will be enough people in the pot to make up for it.

[cfjr2]

All seem passive - raise for value, There is no flush are str8 draw here so maybe you get some people to fold out (incorrectly but may as well give them the chance). We would like to see any KQT, etc. out cleaning up those overs.

Waiting for turn raise will not protect as there will be ~12-16sb after flop and one or 2 BB on Turn gives most hands correct odds to call anyhow.

[Aaron W.]

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All seem passive - raise for value

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/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[cfjr2]

I figure if any re-raise they have a J, due to passiveness many will fold - incorrectly as I said due to odds but they will fold due to the raise implying a J, two pair, big pair or set that they think you are representing.

You have middle pair - you need to represent top pair then slow down if everyone cold calls. Best case you get it HU.

[Aaron W.]

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I figure if any re-raise they have a J, due to passiveness many will fold - incorrectly as I said due to odds but they will fold due to the raise implying a J, two pair, big pair or set that they think you are representing.

You have middle pair - you need to represent top pair then slow down if everyone cold calls. Best case you get it HU.

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That's not what "raise for value" means.

[kirkt]

You're definitely playing and you couldn't have asked for an uglier board. You are way more likely than 6:1 to have the best hand by the river.

As for raising or calling. If you don't raise, the gushots (89s anyone?) have odds to chase. If you raise, the only chasers should be overcards and fish. Our big concerns are AJ and a set, both of which have us clobbered. So on the turn, we should have our feelers out.

If we raise and someone suddenly wakes up or wakes up on the turn, I'd probably fold.

That's my line.

[cfjr2]

sorry - I figured since folding is incorrect the raise was for value not to protect.

Is there more to this definition that I am missing? I'm not being a wise guy here I'm not sure what to call this type of bet otherwise...

[TredWel]

9:1 is more than enough to continue on with a 5-outer, and the combination of position on the bettor and the large pot turns your action into a raise.

[Mathieu]

I raise for the following reasons:

The pot is big and the board is only slightly coordinated. Getting 9-1 we should at least call. Raising is better since it protects our hand which might still be good. It might buy us the button and a free card. It might even make someone fold a better hand. Also, MP1 posted and checked, so he's unlikely to have a very good hand here (worth 3 betting).

[Duerig]

Call and turn an A. I think you're behind right now. I want to see the next card cheap.

[ClaytonN]

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Also, MP1 posted and checked, so he's unlikely to have a very good hand here (worth 3 betting).

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I was wondering how long it would take before anyone noticed that.

[kirkt]

Is that true? Given the posterior probability, he is less likely to have AJ, JJ, KJ, QJ but far more likely to have J2, J7, 72 all of these need to see a thinner field on the turn.

I ran into this exact same situation posting behind at a casino once with Q7.

[Shillx]

Also, MP1 posted and checked, so he's unlikely to have a very good hand here (worth 3 betting).

This isn't a good thing for us. The fact that he posted and checked means that he could have any 2 cards here. Had he limped (and we knew how he played) we probably could rule outs hands like 72 and J2 that have us in bad shape.

[Aaron W.]

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sorry - I figured since folding is incorrect the raise was for value not to protect.

Is there more to this definition that I am missing? I'm not being a wise guy here I'm not sure what to call this type of bet otherwise...

[/ QUOTE ]

It might be splitting hairs a little bit, but here it goes:

I would call this a raise for protection. The *main purpose* of the raise is to make other players fold, thus protecting your hand if it happens to be best. I hesitate calling this a value raise because you're not *that* certain you have the best hand here, with everyone else in the pot left to act.

[Mathieu]

If he is betting with just TP, he is unlikely to have a very good kicker, that is worth 3 betting. This increases our chances of getting a free card on the turn.
J2 and 72 or much less likely than Jx where x is not A, K, 7, 2.

Maybe I'm being over-optimistic, but I think we should not worry about him having 2 pairs just because he has a weak random starting hand. He only bet out for now.

[Aaron W.]

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If he is betting with just TP, he is unlikely to have a very good kicker, that is worth 3 betting. This increases our chances of getting a free card on the turn.
J2 and 72 or much less likely than Jx where x is not A, K, 7, 2.

Maybe I'm being over-optimistic, but I think we should not worry about him having 2 pairs just because he has a weak random starting hand. He only bet out for now.

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Are you raising for a free card here?

[Disconnected]

With so many people left to act behind us, I think I'd like to offer them bad odds to continue, so I'd raise. I'd like fold out anyone with overs + back door draws. If 3-bet, you've still got 5 pretty clean outs.

[Mathieu]

I am raising to protect my hand and increase my chances of winning this 9 sb pot.

I think the free card is an added benefit. If I'm behind a J and get to see the river for 2 small bets, it "pays" for my hand protection raise.

[kirkt]

The situations I'd check on the turn are few and far between. One is I buy the last position to act on the turn (unlikely even at poker stars), another jack comes, or the only person behind me is a maniac who will always bet out if another ace or seven comes and I check.

[TripleH68]

With 800 kabillion limpers I call the flop and look for a favorable turn.

The flop is drawless. I don't mind Ax or 7x coming along. And if someone wants to make a runner-runner str8 or flush so be it. We don't have a hand to protect here 7-handed do we?

Tell me if this thinking is too weak.

I'm with you. I like this play a lot better if we're acting after everyone has checked it through, our raise is more likely to fold them out and it is more likely that the bettor is taking a stab at the pot without a jack.

[Shillx]

Call or fold. I would fold. Eh maybe I'd call I dunno.

[@bsolute_luck]

i'd have raised preflop. fold the poster and get HU with UTG+2.

the flop: just call and hope he doesn't have AJ and that all 5 of your outs are goot. you're probably behind to a Jack already, so you're not winning this hand UI.

[VoraciousReader]

Raises?

[Catt]

I'm really surprised. This strikes me as a must-raise. You have the odds to continue; the pot is pretty big; there are a bunch of players left to act behind you; you must raise to protect your hand (and protecting means forcing players to fold and forfeit equity in the pot or make a bad call - either way we've protected).

This reminds me very much of the introduction to post-flop concepts from SSHE in which, if I recall correctly, Hero does something dumb like cold-calling pre-flop with K7 and then calls a flop bet from his immediate right with his second pair and others to act behind. Again if I remember correctly - Ed Miller points out that many can identify the clear error pre-flop but many don't identify the more costly error - calling the flop (Hero in the SSHE hand has a BDFD, I believe). We have a chance to knock out three hands with our raise and the pot is big enough to fight for it here. I'd certainly like to have a BD draw to help the strength of my hand, but even in its absence, I think calling here is a pretty good-sized error. If we're going to contniue, I think this is a must raise.

I don't like a raise here b/c I don't think our hand is good often enough to make it worthwhile to fold the other hands out. I like a raise here if we have like an inside draw or some backdoor draws or some if raising would clear up some of our outs. I'd rather just peel and hope to spike one of our 5 outs on the turn.

FWIW, I also tend to find that these situations work much better if you are raising after the PFR bets. In these cases, everyone respects the preflop raiser, assumes you have a monster and gets out of the way. At least it is much more likely.

[Shillx]

I was gonna wait to post this, but now is a good time. This hand is far different then the scenario you present (and far more dangerous). Let's say the hand goes as follows...

EP raises and you donk it up with A7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. There are 2 more coldcallers and the blinds fold.

Flop: J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

PFR bets and now we have a clear raise. The PFR will be betting a ton of hands here that you beat like big missed aces and kings. A poster (or limper) is not going to bet AK into a field of 6 people in an unraised pot. Now I'm not saying that we should always call in this spot, but it is pretty dependant on the board. If the flop were 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif we should probably raise since there is a good chance that the flop bettor is on a draw. A J72r board doesn't offer many draws that people will choose to bet.

More later. Gotta run.

[istewart]

Catt you have some good points but yeah there's a major difference between the hands in that in SSHE the guy raised preflop.

[Catt]

I recognize that we're facing a bet from a poster and not a PFR. However, the first decision is to continue or not; the second decision is what to do if we continue. We have no information on the poster's hand or his play proclivities; and yes it is more likely that he leads TP rather than 2nd pair, 3rd pair, a pocket pair that we beat, or a draw (like 89, T9). But there's still a decent chance that we have the best hand, and there are still a few draws that could bet this flop; and even if we don't have the best hand but we choose to continue, then we really want to fold out hands that have winning draws to our hand (and any card higher than 7 has a winning draw here) - and if they won't fold, then we want to make them call unprofitably. There will be times when we would raise a weak made hand (not a strong draw) even knowing that we don't have the best hand (I'm not saying this is one of them). J72 doesn't offer a ton of draws, but there are certainly gutshots, pairs with a BDSD, pairs like A2 that we have dominated, etc. We don't have as strong a hand as I'd like, and we are risking an additional bet by raising, but the pot is big and we really need to protect our weak made hand. There are three players left to act behind us, and even garbage hands will be tempted to call getting 10+:1 (but not 5+:2) -- and lots of those garbage hands have outs to beat us.

It's going to take some real convincing from Brad (and others!) to convince me that investing another bet in an effort to fold out the players behind us or present them with a really unfavorable calling decision is not the right play.

[PokerSparky]

I can see a case for raising here, but with so many opponents still to act, I think I'd like to peel here and hope it doesn't get raised behind me. IMO, it's unlikely MP1 would bet into this large field without top pair.

[gharp]

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PFR will be betting a ton of hands here that you beat like big missed aces and kings. A poster (or limper) is not going to bet AK into a field of 6 people in an unraised pot.

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This is a good point but I think it's worth pointing out that this guy actually posted 1.5SB preflop. That is, he's not some guy who just sat down, he's posting both blinds in MP1. So he's psychologically more invested in the hand and I think that opens up his betting range a bit. He certainly doesn't have to have top pair here.

Like Catt, I think there's way too much discussion about calling (or folding) here. I looked at this and thought it was a pretty clear raise. If you're going to continue (and you should) and you think the pot is big (which it is) and there's some chance you have the best hand (and there is), then why would you just call?

So I still think it's a clear raise, but I'm interested in hearing more arguments against it...

Fold. If there was a diamond or you thought you had MP1 beat you could justify a raise. Unfortunately, this hand fits neither criteria.

[milesdyson]

Post edited by milesdyson

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Fold. If there was a diamond or you thought you had MP1 beat you could justify a raise. Unfortunately, this hand fits neither criteria.

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so from now on all i have to do is make a mental check list, like this?

i have suited cards,

1. is there one of my suit on the board?
2. could my hand be better than the bettor's hand?

and if the answer to both is no, i fold, right?

this is huge. maybe you should delete this so no one can program bots to play suited hands perfectly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I always love to read your witty put downs. They add so much value to everyone's poker play.
I had a much longer post planned (that included being OOP) but unlike yourself, I didn't want to waste anyone's time.
Quite obviously, I'm crap. Surely someone of your wisdom and poker playing experience might be able to offer some constructive critisism. Or even better - a response to the OP. Help me learn, not cry myself to sleep.

[milesdyson]

i'm basically asking you in a creative way to explain your statement. didn't mean to make you sad, dude. just want you to realize what you typed.

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i'm basically asking you in a creative way to explain your statement. didn't mean to make you sad, dude. just want you to realize what you typed.

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I still think a lot of people would prefer to see a comment from you on the OP. I'm sure everybody (including me) values your opinion more than mine. It's cool to put me down, I really do enjoy the put downs (that's why I post, it's definitely not because I think I'm right). But without reasoning, the "creative" nature to your put downs seems like a waste.

P.S. I love being owned by you.

[milesdyson]

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P.S. I love being owned by you.

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this always happens to me.

as for the hand, i'm not sure what i would do. call/raise/fold, they all seem pretty close, and if you could simulate this hand a million times and do each action a third of the time, the results would probably be close.

[ClaytonN]

I put MP1 on two cards. Yes, he could have a jack, but he could just as easily have a worse 7, a pp smaller than a 7, or some kind of gutshot draw. Maybe even overs.

There's 9 sb's now in the pot though when it's to me, and I consider this a big pot, even though it was unraised preflop. I wanted to win it with aggression. Viewed it more as a hand to protect from gutters and overs as a hand to improve by hitting another 7 or A. Mainly because pot was already 9 SB's large and I wanted position and the lead in the hand.

What was good about this flop texture was that it didn't represent any kind of draw, so any raise made by a player behind me would *likely* represent a hand better than mine. I highly doubt anyone would try to make a free card play with overs in a pot (and flop) like this, but I could be wrong. This would be even moreso when they're looking at two cold instead of raising a single bet. Were it to get raised behind me (or coldcalled, which would be even weirder), I would then call and re-evaluate on the turn.

Anyways, I raised. And everyone folded. Including Mp1. Holla.

[ClaytonN]

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as for the hand, i'm not sure what i would do.

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Just stop here Miles. Kthx?

[istewart]

I'm not sure what overcards you're talking about people having. There was no preflop raise and the flop is jack-high.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
First hand of table. 800 kabillion limpers. How do you play this flop?

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $1.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 (poster) checks, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero...</font>

[/ QUOTE ]
so you raised and they all folded, huh?

how was this the first hand at the table and you're in MP2?

you made this hand up.

[ClaytonN]

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you made this hand up.

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wanna bet?