Should I bet the river # 1

[mikeca]

8 handed PP 0.5/1 game, on the tighter side. I am UTG+1 with Ad Qh.

UTG folds. I raise. Folded to the button who cold calls 2. SB and BB also call. Button looks like a reasonably tight player. SB seems a little looser than button, but still reasonable. This is BB first hand.

Flop is 2h Js Qd

I like the flop. SB and BB check to me. I bet. Button calls, SB folds, and BB calls.

Turn is [2h Js Qd ] 2s

I’m not too worried about a 2, but in this game, you never know what people will play. BB checks again. I bet. Button and BB just call. I guess nobody had a 2.

River [2h Js Qd 2s ] Jh

If nobody had a 2, then does someone have a J? What have they been calling my bets with? A straight draw? Overcards like Ax? A spade flush draw? A Qx?

BB checks to me. What do you do here? If they have a J, they will raise me. If they had some kind of draw that missed, they will fold. A Qx would probably call, but the board has got to look scary to some one with Qx. If I check, that would be inviting the button to bluff at the pot. Is it worth it to bet this hand on the river?

What I did and results to follow.

[Homer]

It think it depends on whether the button is passive or aggressive.

Passive - Bet and fold to a raise. If you check I assume you plan to call a single bet? If so, you should bet it yourself against this type of opponent. That way, you will get the button to call with a worse Q, which is a hand he wouldn't bet himself when checked to. He will raise you if he has a J, but in such a case you will lose the same amount as you would have had you check-called, since you can safely fold to the raise.

Aggressive - Check and call a bet. An aggressive button will bet with all the hands he would call/raise with (a weak Q or a J) and then some (bluffs).

-- Homer

[tewall]

You gain by betting if:
A1) Someone calls with a worse hand that wouldn't have bet had you checked.

You gain by checking if:
B1) Someone with a worse hand bets that would not have called had you bet.
B2) Someone with a worse hand raises you if you bet.

This is a assuming you will fold to a raise.

I think A1 is more likely than B1, so I would bet provided the opponents are not the least bit tricky and check otherwise.

[elysium]

hi mikeca
you should bet. you have no reason to suspect that you're not in the lead.

[mikeca]

I would like to thank everyone for their reply.

In the game I bet, and both the button and BB folded. I have no idea what hands they were holding.

When I was reviewing the transcript latter, the more I thought about this, I started to wonder if this bet made sense. I just could not see many hands that I could beat that would call my bet.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Mike:

You wrote:

BB checks to me. What do you do here? If they have a J, they will raise me. If they had some kind of draw that missed, they will fold. A Qx would probably call, but the board has got to look scary to some one with Qx. If I check, that would be inviting the button to bluff at the pot. Is it worth it to bet this hand on the river?

Your answer is right there. You're clearly making an argument to check, and I think it's a good argument.

Best wishes,
mason