Mucking Deuce-Deuce when its folded to you on the button.

[Huh]

3-3-6-9 home game.

I have pocket deuces on the button. Both blinds defend 95% of the time. One blind may check-fold if he catches no piece of the board and doesn't have an ace. The other blind will hang on to any pair until the end, unless the ace hits, or something really scary happens (4-suits on the board).

Folded to me, I pick up 22 on the button and muck.

Was this a horrible play. I figure there are four overcards out there, and with these players I am never going to know where I am at. On top of that, one of the two may have caught a real hand this time. It felt wrong and right at the same time.

Opinions appreciated
-Huh /forums/images/icons/confused.gif

[ElSapo]

I folded 2-2 on the button this morning after a MP raise and it it folded to me (one EP caller). I wasn't sure about the play initially but figured nothing good could come from it. Of course a 2 flopped, what can you do, but aside from that I'm still unsure of the play.

[Homer]

I would fold this without hesitation. If you can't steal the blinds what is the point in raising? Calling is no better, because you can't play for a set with only two opponents. Folding is clearly the best option.

-- Homer

[Homer]

Folding should be routine with 22 on the button after an MP raisor. The next best option is reraising, hoping to get it heads-up and take it down with a bet on the flop. The worst option is coldcalling.

-- Homer

[Bob T.]

I think that this is a reasonable play, given your opponents. If you play, basically, you are committing yourself to playing AK unimproved, with a much smaller chance of improving.

[Binkus]

This is a easy fold here, your only value to this had is making a set and the two blinds wont give you the odds or implied odds to play this hand. And given the fact that they defend there blinds 95% of the time this would be a band hand to atempt a blind steal.

[Homer]

Good post, Bob. I was thinking something similar but wasn't able to summarize my thoughts so concisely.

-- Homer

[Huh]

Pretty much what I thought, but some people in the game seemed to think this was insane. AHh well,
-Huh /forums/images/icons/confused.gif

[Bubmack]

2,2 is an underdog against a random hand!!! So if there is no value to raising to steal the blinds - then this is definately a negative EV play to raise or call...the worst being raising.

Bubs

[CrackerZack]

No it isn't. Any pair is a favorite to any non-pair. Unfortunately my proxy now blocks the site I use for odds.

http://www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Value.htm

(thanks mk)

[SoBeDude]

Heads up 22 is in the lead over any non-pair hand, including AKs. So even if you can just get one blind to fold and the other comes back at you, you're still +EV.

-Scott

[SoBeDude]

I'm with biglick here.

any non-pair is an underdog to any pair (heads-up).

-Scott

[Homer]

Heads up 22 is in the lead over any non-pair hand, including AKs. So even if you can just get one blind to fold and the other comes back at you, you're still +EV.

This would be true if you were going all-in before the flop. However, you aren't, so you have to deal with reverse implied odds. In other words, if your opponent bets into you on the flop you won't know if he has you beaten or not. If you call down, you will often find out that your hand was surpassed on the flop. On the flip side, if you are checked to, you can't be certain that you are ahead, and thus cannot bet the hand yourself (maybe you can take a stab at it on the flop, but if you are called what do you do when checked to on the turn?).

In summary, you will not be able to capitalize when you are ahead and you will be charged when you are behind, so it is not as cut and dried as saying that your hand is +EV against an random hand, because we aren't playing showdown poker.

-- Homer

[Homer]

I think you guys might be missing the point. It doesn't matter if 22 is a "favorite" against a random hand or not. It WOULD matter if we were going all-in preflop. But we aren't. We have to deal with reverse implied odds in this case.

-- Homer

[Vehn]

I would play it. I might even limp.

[Homer]

Ya know, I think I understand poker, then I read something like this and start scratching my head.

I scrolled back to the original post and noticed for the first time that the game has a 1-1-2-3 structure. I assume this has some bearing on whether or not you'd play the hand? I assume you are playing this hand for its set value only (and maybe the possibility of stealing on the flop)?

-- Homer

[Glenn]

I would be happy to take Jh Th against 2d 2s and bet $1 on the outcome of each of 100000 hands. Any takers?

If you don't like that I will also take:

Js Tc
5h 6h
Td 7d
Kd Qd
7c 8h
6h 9h
Qd 8d
Ah Jh
etc...

[Homer]

No thanks. And I don't care if you mean 1) hot and cold or 2) actually play the hand.

-- Homer

[Glenn]

Homer,

SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. 10% to you if you can just keep from posting any more right things in this thread /forums/images/icons/smile.gif.

[Homer]

Sorry, I just can't help it. Ya gotta love www.twodi............ (http://www.twodi............)

-- Homer

[SoBeDude]

If its appropriate to defend against a steal with ace-high, why isn't it appropriate to attack with a hand that beats ace high?

-Scott

[Homer]

Question for you: Would you rather defend against a steal with A-high or 22? Why?

I'd rather have A-high because it is nearly as likely to be the best hand as 22 (with the exception of being outkicked sometimes by other Aces) preflop, but has a much, much greater chance of improving postflop.

If your opponent has two big cards, say KT:

- Ax has 3 outs with which to surpass it on the flop, whereas 22 only has 2.

If your opponent has a medium pocket pair, say 88:

- Ax has either 3 or 7 outs with which to surpass it on the flop (depending on whether or not x is larger than 8), whereas 22 only has 2.

Good question, you have me thinking.

-- Homer

[SoBeDude]

I could be really off base here, but even with a straight flush draw you'll never get near half the deck as outs.

Given this fact and that you HAVE to improve to win, you will improve and win much less than 50% of the time. If neither of us improve, I win with my 22

Now I'll freely admit my logic is possibly flawed here, but lets say I'm on the button with my 22 and I raise and I get one caller (either button).

And lets say the blind bets out every street and I simply call every time. Or I bet and he calls, or whatever. One of us reverts to the check-call mode to see the showdown.

I still win more than 50% of these hands, right?

Also factor in the times that even with heavy defenders, some times the blinds will fold (even if only the 5% stated).

Now I do have the issue here of implied odds. If the blind folds somewhere along the line I'm not going to get paid off as well, then if he stays only when he hits, I lose more money. But I should make up for that by winning more often, I think.

But there will be times he hits and fold anyway because he doesn't feel his hand is a winner, and times I hit a set or a straight or a baby flush.

So where does this leave us? heck I'm not sure.

buts its a great discussion!

I had a situation the other day like this where there was a open-raise from LMP, folded to me on the button. the blinds were folding a lot and I was sure that a reraise by me would make it heads up. So I have a pair and position against an unknown hand, and I've shown aggression. Is this a good play? (I wimped out and folded)

-Scott

[tewall]

22 is not a good hand to play here, largely for the reasons Homer pointed out. The problem is it's not likely to improve, and it's difficult to play. Every card that doesn't improve you possibly gives your opponent a better hand. Every single card. So there's no card (other than a 2) that your happy to see. That's a difficult situation. Your opponent can play aggressively with draws or pairs, and you don't know where you are. The fact that you're out against two people makes this an easy fold.

In the situation where you thought about re-raising LMP your fold was a good decision. The fact the LMP raised means he has a better than average hand. 22 heads up against an unknown hand may not even be +EV. It's chance of winning is 50.3%, but it's a difficult hand to play so could easily be -EV. Given the fact that LMP raised makes its chance of winning less than against a random hand. You're not against an unknown random hand, but against an unknown hand which raised. Not the same thing.

In response to your question about prefering 22 or Ax heads up, I would strongly prefer Ax, especially if the x is a decent kicker. There are many hands Ax can play strongly even if the flop misses, but not many 22 can.

[elysium]

hi huh
it's not a horrible play, but you likely should raise in with them, and then bet out if checked to on the flop, perhaps check-calling to the river against a good opponent who knows that you would raise here with A high.

[Bubmack]

Notice I said Random hand (not unpaired hand). A random hand includes all possible hands inlucing bigger pocket pairs too. So to raise not knowing what he has is a losing proposition since the occasions that 2,2 has a small edge over unpaired cards is outweighed by the few times it is a huge dog to an overpair.

If you run a simulation you will this to be the case.

Bubs

[Bubmack]

True, but I think any analysis should at least begin with the favorite preflop - to river and then consider the other factors that go into betting, folding, raising that can change a hands EV.

[Joe Tall]

I've very surprised to the reaction to this post. 100% muck for me, given this situation.

I know I'm new around here, however, I've read the forum for months before I found the guts to post, yet, I've never seen such a mixed reactions over such a hand. I find this interesting, and I'm glad to read and I respect all opinions.

Now, answer me this: at what point (GIVEN THE EXACT SITUATION) is your pocket pair good to steal with? 3s, 4s, 5s?? I think 5s...are the lowest I'd steal with here.

[Huh]

If I was against sane opponents, I would have tried the steal with this hand. The BB puts you on AK whenever his blind is raised. If I thought I could get it heads up, I would have raised, and then check-called down any flop that did not contain an Ace, King or Deuce.

-Huh

[lefty rosen]

If you know the percentages of hitting a 2 on the head and you couple this with bad chasers that is the only play you can do in this situation anything below eights you would either have to passively call and wait for the flop or fold.

[Robk]

I think Vehn is right on here.

1. Both blinds defend 95% of the time... The other blind will hang on to any pair until the end, unless the ace hits

This means raising is clearly wrong, IMO.

2. The game is 3-3-6-9...

Your implied odds are there to hit a set in this structure. I consider 10 to be the magic number when playing a hand strictly for set value. As in I need to make 10 of whatever I invest preflop. There are already 2 in the pot, and with the big bet on the river getting 8 more should be no problem against 2 loose players. If they both call the flop and one calls you down, that's 9 right there. Add in the fact that you can occasionally win with unimproved ducks, and it looks like a limp is in order.

3. Exception: If either blind is going to raise a lot here, I'm folding preflop.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Huh:

You may want to look at the short handed section in our book Hold 'em Poker for Advanced Players where we talk about this exact situation. The right play with blinds that almost always call might be to limp in when you're first in from the button and then bet the flop if they both check.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Bob T.]

If you openlimped on the button, I would be so terrified, I would fold the BB preflop. /forums/images/icons/smirk.gif

[Bubmack]

Steal against any opponent that might fold - say 25% of his raised BBs...even with 2,2. Otherwise, fold.

If you know you are going to be called - no matter what - then you should probably be raising on hand strength/ position.

Raise with 5,5 and above in situations like this. (just an estimate)


Bubs

[Vehn]

Well at least you'd be sure I don't have 85 offsuit?

[Bob T.]

True, /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif . Best laugh of the day.