88 isolation in MP

11-handed live game at Western Fair.

UTG+1 is agressive, limps with many suited cards/connectors, haven't seen enough preflop raises shown down to have a good enough judge of raising standards.

MP2 is a loose young player, and appears to be on tilt at this point. He came straight to the table after a good run at blackjack, is very talkative, and might even have a couple drinks in him, although he is not drinking now. I have seen him raise preflop and then dump his hand on the flop a couple times now already. EDIT: This led me to believe he has loose raising standards and plays weak-tight postflop.

MP4 is an old lady who hasn't played very much poker (so she says, and judging by her play over the past 2 hours, its not at all unreasonable) and is generally weak-passive, and loose-passive postflop. She's been getting some help from the button, who is a huge table coach and was told off by MP2 a couple hands ago for giving the lady advice during her hands.

BB was a Johnny Chan lookalike and was wearing a Taj shirt.

_______________________________________
Hero is MP1 with 88

Preflop:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets (an isolation move, as not many pots were being 3-bet preflop), MP2 caps, 1 fold, MP4 calls, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls

Flop: (13.5 SB) 9-7-7 rainbow
UTG+1 bets, Hero...?

[Bodhi]

www.pokerhand.org (http://www.pokerhand.org)

duh, I'm an [censored]. Your hand was live. Sorry.

Fold, and fold fast. If you don't injury your wrist as you quickly fold your 8s, you're not mucking fast enough. Based on your post, the only reason you 3-bet was to isolate the aggressive UTG+1 player. Unfortunately, you didn't succeed, and you didn't connect all that well with the flop. You need runner-runner for a str8 or one of the two remaining 8s to likely have a chance. You still have 2 players left to act: A wild player who will likely raise, and an old lady who was willing to call after a raise, a reraise, AND a re-reraise. Based on your position, the fact that you didn't hit the flop, and your statement that "not many pots were being 3-bet preflop" but this one was capped," your 8s are almost guaranteed to be a huge dog. Remember, your original intent for being in the hand was to isolate against a loose player to your right. However, this didn't work. Throw in the towel and save your chips; there will be other hands.

[Bodhi]

No way. Hero raises. Besides the fact that we may have the best hand, we also have a backdoor straight. The pot is too big to fold just yet, so raise.

[Redd]

The pfr just led right into the pf-3bettor and pf capper, on a table where not many hands are making it to 3-bets. Between this (pretty good) sign that we're behind and the chance that we'll get caught in the middle of a war, I'd also fold it.

[kaidoy]

[ QUOTE ]
No way. Hero raises. Besides the fact that we may have the best hand, we also have a backdoor straight. The pot is too big to fold just yet, so raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you raise this you're paying off way too much to the higher pairs,
even your backdoor straight is far from clean,
besides the chance that somebody may have 99,
TT & JJ will often make a full house when you hit your long shot straight,

I'd fold it right away

[sy_or_bust]

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 is a loose young player, and appears to be on tilt at this point...I have seen him raise preflop and then dump his hand on the flop a couple times now already.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then raise the flop immediately. Most of the time, though, you'd be better off calling and waiting for the turn to raise if you can expect MP2 to call 1 or 2 with overcards (not raise) and UTG+1 to lead the turn.

As for a plan for the rest of the hand, I would choose to raise the flop to a) try to clean up overcards if I'm ahead (which is not totally ludacris given my reads on these players); and b) find out where I stand by the players' reactions to my raise. If I'm not 3-bet, I bet the turn and river. Otherwise I fold the turn.

[Bodhi]

Your reasoning is too fearful of losing a few extra bets for the chance of winning a large pot. Hero raises, and if it comes back 2 cold we can fold safely. Folding with 14:1 odds is insane.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Your reasoning is too fearful of losing a few extra bets for the chance of winning a large pot. Hero raises, and if it comes back 2 cold we can fold safely. Folding with 14:1 odds is insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even so, for +EV we'll need to be best like 1 time in 5 or so at showdown. Between both Villains that like their hands and getting drawn out on, are we going to be best that often at SD?

"As for a plan for the rest of the hand, I would choose to raise the flop to a) try to clean up overcards if I'm ahead (which is not totally ludacris given my reads on these players); and b) find out where I stand by the players' reactions to my raise. If I'm not 3-bet, I bet the turn and river. Otherwise I fold the turn. "

But isn't it pretty obvious that you are WAY behind or very likely to be? 8-8 against 3 opponents is not very good. With a preflop raiser/postflop better to your right, the pre-flop capper to your left, and let's not forget the old lady who was willing to call 4 bets COLD, I would recommend fold. You can be fairly certain that you will be played back at, with the pot getting 3-bet by either the players on either your left or right, so why invest 2 more bets when you plan to fold to any subsequent action?

So... how did this hand play out?

I can be fairly certain that IF I was played back at, then I would be beat. However, I can't be certain that I'm not ahead, given the nature of the players in the hand. If I'm ahead, it would terrible to allow the two players behind me to see a turn for only one bet. I want to charge them to beat me. If I'm behind, then I'm way behind, and I'll find out very quickly. If my math is close to correct, I need to be about 20% certain that I'm ahead here, and I think that number sounds good to me.

[ellipse_87]

What specific hand ranges do you put aggro, tilty, and old lady on? What percentage of each range are you ahead of, and then what is the product of those percentages? That number can't be 20%.

For example, if they all have the same range, you'd have to be ahead of each of them 60% of the time. I haven't done the math with specific combinations, but that doesn't seem likely with this action.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your reasoning is too fearful of losing a few extra bets for the chance of winning a large pot. Hero raises, and if it comes back 2 cold we can fold safely. Folding with 14:1 odds is insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even so, for +EV we'll need to be best like 1 time in 5 or so at showdown. Between both Villains that like their hands and getting drawn out on, are we going to be best that often at SD?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd also like to hear Bodhi's reasoning here, as I'm pretty sure that this hand should be a fold.