Whats the move here?

[DMACM]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t640)
UTG (t175)
Button (t4980)
SB (t2205)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t600</font>, Hero?

[MegaBet]

Fold. SB is raising with any 2, buy it's too risky with the shortstack basically all in on the next hand.

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t640)
UTG (t175)
Button (t4980)
SB (t2205)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t600</font>, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy fold. You have no FE re-raising with your last 40 chips. Plus, SB can have you dominated here with AK, AA, KK, or QQ. Too risky. Plus, 3BBs is plenty to still play with.

[bluefeet]

I don't care how short he is. Unless I'm down to my last buy-in, facing the end of my poker career - I push. There is no guarantee shortie will bust. In fact, if you fold here and he doubles through next hand, you're essentially even with you eating the next blinds first.

Happily push, knowing you are likely a huge favorite. By asserting yourself here, you stand a great chance to finish higher than a "maybe 3rd".

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't care how short he is. Unless I'm down to my last buy-in, facing the end of my poker career - I push. There is no guarantee shortie will bust. In fact, if you fold here and he doubles through next hand, you're essentially even with you eating the next blinds first.

Happily push, knowing you are likely a huge favorite. By asserting yourself here, you stand a great chance to finish higher than a "maybe 3rd".

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, have to disagree.

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't care how short he is. Unless I'm down to my last buy-in, facing the end of my poker career - I push. There is no guarantee shortie will bust. In fact, if you fold here and he doubles through next hand, you're essentially even with you eating the next blinds first.

Happily push, knowing you are likely a huge favorite. By asserting yourself here, you stand a great chance to finish higher than a "maybe 3rd".

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, have to disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see that /images/graemlins/wink.gif ...maybe a minority opinion, but in my experience "folding intoTM" often does not have the desired results. I'm as prudent as the next guy. Give me 300 more chips and I'd fold. As short as hero is here, folding is a gamble also -- the worst form of gambling, where you choose to not effect it's outcome. Shortie's random holdings in the BB are just as likely to hold up next hand when someone pushes through YOUR SB. When that happens, you are actually 10chips shorter at t415. You will be forced to push/call one of the next few hands - not so fun when you could be facing a 3/4-way. Considering SB can/should raise here with ANY TWO...I'd have no problem sleeping after he sucks out w/86o or something.

[MegaBet]

Assuming he has 2 unpaired undercards, you are still around 40% to lose. I'll take my chances with the shortstack going out the next hand.

[zambonidrivr]

this is a push and it's not close. limping into third can't be +ev over the long haul. Play for first. You are getting your money in a situation where you are way ahead.

[redmonk]

definitely push. You will be way ahead quite often. I would give the SB credit for at least A-small, which puts you way ahead.

[MegaBet]

Don't overrate AQ. Play for first AFTER you have secured a money spot. This is basic bubble play.

[MegaBet]

Will someone please run the numbers! I'll stake my reputation on this being -$EV to push.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Happily push, knowing you are likely a huge favorite. By asserting yourself here, you stand a great chance to finish higher than a "maybe 3rd".

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, you get all the way up to "maybe 2nd." because even if you double up here, you're still at 1/4 the stack the bb has. i'd rather take a very high chance at 3rd and a low chance at 2nd+ than a good chance at 3rd, decent at 2nd, and ~40% of busting right now.

btw, sngpt will not be very useful here, as it doesn't know that the shorty is a-i next hand.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
You will be way ahead quite often.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd say you'll be ahead with almost the exact probability that a random hand is not AK/22+.

[ QUOTE ]
I would give the SB credit for at least A-small, which puts you way ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

i would be pushing any two immediately if i were SB. that's a super-auto-easy push.

[DMACM]

I asked the question so I just ran the numbers in SNGPT. Its a fold with SB pushing 100%. The limitations of ICM make this even more of a fold since shortie is BB next hand. I mistakenly called here but you are right Megabet its a fold without a doubt.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
I asked the question so I just ran the numbers in SNGPT. Its a fold with SB pushing 100%. The limitations of ICM make this even more of a fold since shortie is BB next hand. I mistakenly called here but you are right Megabet its a fold without a doubt.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the confirmation! My reputation is intact for now! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Agreed, how could this not be a fold? Play to win is good, but I'll take third and making some money over fourth and losing money anyday of the week. How big a smile is on short-stacks face when he sees you move all in when he's forced blind next? When he realizes you put him from an almost guarnteed fourth to a possible money spot I'd say damn big.

[pooh74]

what is most interesting here is not perhaps the push-fold part of this hand...but the fact that next hand shorite in BB will have 25t more than BB...this makes Hero's job a little tougher...will CO and button comply and minraise? Or will they raise enough so that in order for hero to call, hero would be AI and BB could fold with 25 left. (I would hate this, bc BB will be heads up in that case, and very likely against any 2...)

On this hand, FWIW, I am only calling with maybe 4-5 hands here. I want a big edge, but I would fold even quicker if shortie had 150 or less bc I am all for cooperation on the next hand..

Would you call with AKo in the same situation? What your minimum calling hand be?

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you call with AKo in the same situation? What your minimum calling hand be?

[/ QUOTE ]

Without running the numbers...AA or KK.

[deathpotato]

The hand in question is certainly a fold, but folding QQ would be a huge mistake, and quite ridiculous. There is a massive difference between how AQ and QQ perform against large pushing ranges, which SB almost definitely has. If SB is good (and knows you are) you should call with 99.

I would call, and then regret it.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
The hand in question is certainly a fold, but folding QQ would be a huge mistake, and quite ridiculous. There is a massive difference between how AQ and QQ perform against large pushing ranges, which SB almost definitely has. If SB is good (and knows you are) you should call with 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, too ridiculous to even make a sarcastic comment on.

[deathpotato]

Are you saying calling with 99 is ridiculous? What I was suggesting is that should you play this hand and find yourself holding QQ, I don't think you would fold it, because to do so would seem silly when actually confronted by the situation. And silly it would be. Here are the numbers for 99, if SB is pushing any two (which he should if we call with 99+):

http://img379.imageshack.us/img379/8006/ridiculous5vm.th.png (http://img379.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ridiculous5vm.png)

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying calling with 99 is ridiculous?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

[deathpotato]

Folding loses you .6% against a good player, there is no room for debate here.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't care how short he is. Unless I'm down to my last buy-in, facing the end of my poker career - I push. There is no guarantee shortie will bust. In fact, if you fold here and he doubles through next hand, you're essentially even with you eating the next blinds first.

Happily push, knowing you are likely a huge favorite. By asserting yourself here, you stand a great chance to finish higher than a "maybe 3rd".

[/ QUOTE ]

HUGE FAVORITE???? You have AQ against any 2 or something close to it, you are not a HUGE favorite against that range.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding loses you .6% against a good player, there is no room for debate here.

[/ QUOTE ]

deathpotato what do you know? You dont even have an avatar.

[45suited]

well as long as you say there's no room for debate... folding 99 is still the correct play

[deathpotato]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif I lay in bed trying to sleep for an hour but couldn't (stayed home sick all day and slept for about 9 hours, it's catching up with me now). So I'm playing a HU on stars! Brings back memories, I tell you what...

45suited, how can you say folding is the right play when I have actually posted a screenshot of the SGA telling you that folding is wrong? I guess I'm not going to convince you with, oh, ICM math and numbers and all that wizardry, so I won't try anymore past this point. Please, though, for your own sake, run the numbers for yourself and see what they tell you to do.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
well as long as you say there's no room for debate... folding 99 is still the correct play

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, nh

[45suited]

Let me put it this way... No, I did not look at the screenshot yet. I trust that you ran the numbers for SB pushing any two.

Usually my gut on these is correct. (Usually.) If the math says to go with 99, then I can't ignore it.

Sorry for my hasty reply. But, man, I just had a hard time believing that before seeing it for myself. It is very counter-intuitive.

[deathpotato]

No worries, I found that as I learned more and more and improved at the SNG game things that once seemed counterintuitive became much more easy. Eventually the decisions that seem tough are in fact the ones that are within a few tenths of a % of each other when you check them out later on.

The logic behind this play is really quite sound when you think about it. 99 crushes the vast majority of hands that AQ is only slightly ahead of, and it is that difference that makes 99 callable while AQ is not.

And hey, I won my HU SNG /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[45suited]

Well, the good news is that folding AQ here is obvious to me. My gut reaction in this spot would have been to fold all but QQ+ here, possibly stick with JJ.

I always look at posts prior to running the numbers, since I don't have the benefit of running them while at the table. I'm pretty happy with the way I've been progressing in handling these situations, but obviously there's always room for improvement.

I fold everything but QQ, KK, or AA here still despite what the numbers say to do. I still think in this situation you play to get in the money and then go from there. If you were the shortest-stacked by all means push it, but you have someone in an almost forced push position on any two coming up. Let him bust and then push with something and maybe you catch. If not you still made money on the tournament which should be your ultimate goal.

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't care how short he is. Unless I'm down to my last buy-in, facing the end of my poker career - I push. There is no guarantee shortie will bust. In fact, if you fold here and he doubles through next hand, you're essentially even with you eating the next blinds first.

Happily push, knowing you are likely a huge favorite. By asserting yourself here, you stand a great chance to finish higher than a "maybe 3rd".

[/ QUOTE ]

HUGE FAVORITE???? You have AQ against any 2 or something close to it, you are not a HUGE favorite against that range.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. A large exaggeration - 60/40...sound better?

Ok, so we fold. I won't argue, and don't doubt the numbers. But let's consider the next hand:

75/150...before/after posting
Hero-SB (t490/t415)
BB (t175/t25)
UTG (t4980)
Button (t2360)

- UTG should be raising here with a wide range. If he isn't, Button will
- For the same arguement pursued the previous hand, you MUST fold (assuming you're not holding AA/KK i guess), as shortie is NOT AI yet - though he certainly will call if you're not AI

If BB doubles up here (to t425), YOU are short stack with 0 FE. "folding intoTM" is likely no longer an option.

----

By passing on the probable 60/40 in the OP hand, you are in effect gambling on shortie's cards next hand. Which may fair no worse than yours now. Of course even with him doubling, you still have life. But you will see very few hands - having to open-push one of them into one or both big stacks.

It just seems that there has to be some consideration for OUR short stack, and the possible results of not taking this opportunity.

I disagree because although AQo is 64% against a random hand, if you lose, you're out. If you win, you still haven't won the money.
By first letting shorty take what is essentially a 50/50, you get an even shot at winning the money. If it doesn't pay off, you are still in with a small chance.

[barry111]

I am really not sure what I would do here for the $16 game. What was the buy-in for the OP?

[adanthar]

Any ace is an easy fold etc. I probably call QQ because of the last bluefeet post although it's close and fold everything lower.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

By passing on the probable 65/35 in the OP hand,

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

ICM doesn't take into account blind structures. This is a close fold by pure ICM, but because of blind structures and position I think this is a call.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

By passing on the probable 65/35 in the OP hand,

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

ICM doesn't take into account blind structures. This is a close fold by pure ICM, but because of blind structures and position I think this is a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you saying AQ is a call?

regardless of what you're talking about, i think the situation means ICM is going to favor a call too much, because shorty's being in the BB next hand makes folding much more favorable.

[deathpotato]

Adanthar, I'm really curious as to why you say this. Do you think the fact that shortie is in the BB next hand improves your equity by &gt;2.1% (the equity ICM tells us we lose by folding JJ)? I can see folding 99 for this reason, as ICM says this only makes a difference of .6%, but TT, at 1.4%, seems a lot tougher.

It seems pretty tough to analyze the next hand, where shortstack is in the BB. The fact that big stack didn't steal from you on the previous hand means he may very well not be seeking to preserve the bubble to steal from the 2nd stack. I think we can expect him to raise about 20% of hands here. I'm guessing on this one, but I think we can expect 2nd stack to raise about 25% of the time button folds, as he has a definite interest in getting ITM as soon as possible. When both of them fold, you obviously push with any two. We'll ignore the times that you or 2nd stack call, because that will happen very, very rarely.

Big stack pushes
.2*.635 = .127 Big stack wins
.2*.365 = .073 Big stack loses

Big stack folds, 2nd stack pushes
.8*.25*.624 = .1248 2nd stack wins
.8*.25*.376 = .0752 2nd stack loses

Big stack and 2nd stack fold, hero pushes
.8*.75*.5 = .3 Hero wins
.8*.75*.5 = .3 Hero loses

So .127 of the time the stacks will look like this:
5230 $EV = .427
2355 $EV = .3455
415 (HERO) $EV = .2275

.073 of the time they will look like this:
4830 $EV = .4103
2355 $EV = .3283
425 $EV = .1292
415 (HERO) $EV = .1322

.1248 of the time they will look like this:
4980 $EV = .4202
2605 $EV = .3532
415 (HERO) $EV = .2266

.0752 of the time they will look like this:
4980 $EV = .4155
2180 $EV = .3211
425 $EV = .1332
415 (HERO) $EV = .1302

.3 of the time they will look like this:
4980 $EV = .4184
2355 $EV = .3395
665 (HERO) $EV = .2421

and .3 of the time they will look like this:
4980 $EV = .4171
2355 $EV = .3342
350 $EV = .1307
315 (HERO) $EV = .118

So, assuming raising ranges of 20% and 25% for the biggest and 2nd biggest stacks, respectively (I think these are reasonable ranges?), hero's EV in this hand is:

.127*.2275+.073*.1322+.1248*.2266+.0752*.1302+.3*. 2421+.3*.118 = ~0.1846

Calling with 99 against any two in the hand in question gives us equity of .187, and as such I can see folding it if you think the numbers in the following hand could be even more favourable than the ones I picked. But calling with TT gives us equity of .195, and I think it would be difficult to stretch the numbers in the next hand enough to give us that much equity.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
No worries, I found that as I learned more and more and improved at the SNG game things that once seemed counterintuitive became much more easy. Eventually the decisions that seem tough are in fact the ones that are within a few tenths of a % of each other when you check them out later on.

The logic behind this play is really quite sound when you think about it. 99 crushes the vast majority of hands that AQ is only slightly ahead of, and it is that difference that makes 99 callable while AQ is not.

And hey, I won my HU SNG /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


high pairs are very strong against any 2 pushes. I think 88 is slightly better than AK.....Another extremely funny thing is that AJs is better than AKo against any 2!

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No worries, I found that as I learned more and more and improved at the SNG game things that once seemed counterintuitive became much more easy. Eventually the decisions that seem tough are in fact the ones that are within a few tenths of a % of each other when you check them out later on.

The logic behind this play is really quite sound when you think about it. 99 crushes the vast majority of hands that AQ is only slightly ahead of, and it is that difference that makes 99 callable while AQ is not.

And hey, I won my HU SNG /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


high pairs are very strong against any 2 pushes. I think 88 is slightly better than AK.....Another extremely funny thing is that AJs is better than AKo against any 2!

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG, really? Interesting...

That is interesting guess I never thought about AJ being stronger against any two due to the fact that it's a better drawing hand.

[deathpotato]

Any thoughts on my last post? Still think QQ is a fold? I'd like to get some discussion going about 99-JJ because it sounds like there's a fair bit of difference in opinion regarding them.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
Any thoughts on my last post? Still think QQ is a fold? I'd like to get some discussion going about 99-JJ because it sounds like there's a fair bit of difference in opinion regarding them.

[/ QUOTE ]
It all depends on what Villain pushes. If Villain's 2+2, I instacall 99+. If Villain's limps every other hand, and hasn't raised all day, I have to put him on a 50% range or so, and call QQ+.