Buy-in confusion

Let's assume 50 buyins is a safe amount to start with to play the 33s without having to move down, and you know you're a winning player. Then let's assume you drop 30 buyins, which is supposedly a reasonable downswing. Now you're left with only 20 buyins... should you continue playing the 33s now with just 20 buyins?

This is hypothetical, but something that doesn't quite make sense to me.

[KramerTM]

Dropping 30 buy-ins is a good indication that you shouldn't have been at the 33s in the first place. That's not exactly variance working there.

That said, if this was just a bad run, I'd definitely drop down with only 20 buy-ins.

[pergesu]

I'd drop to $22s

[lorinda]

When you had 50 buyins you had an acceptable risk of going bust, let's call it 1% for you as I'm really not in a math mood to use real numbers.

After dropping 25 buyins, and assuming your previous sample was 8000000000000 bazillion SNGs so that losing 25 buyins hasn't changed your win rate by anything important, you now maybe have a 10% chance of going bust.

You are 10 times more likely to go bust now that you've had a 1/10 chance "bad run"

Edit: Changed numbers to make the point more clear, in the new example, losing 25 buyins happens 10% of the time.

Lori

Like I said this is hypothetical, so maybe the 33s was a bad example. What about the 109s? What actually is a safe amount of buyins without having to move down? Can there be one? Because if you start with a bad run, you'll have less than that amount of buyins.

[pergesu]

I'm not sure what your point is.

If I lose a lot of money, I drop to a level where I've got a healthy number of buyins. In case of the 109s, I'd drop to 55s.

[The Don]

This happened to me... I beat the 22s for 25% over 1000 and dropped 30 of my 60 starting buyins (cashed out etc..) over my first 200 33s. It was just so obvious to me that I was running terribly and that I could easily beat the game (even if I did think it was much tougher than the 22s). I never moved down and ended up with a 7.5% ROI over that first 500. I think it is pretty easy to tell if you are being outclassed or if it is Murphy's Law.

[lorinda]

In theory, there is always a chance that Gigabet will lose the next 4 million SNGs he plays due to bad beats.

There is no completely safe bankroll ever, there are acceptable levels and unacceptable levels and this changes for each person.

It would not be ridiculous, say, to always move up when you had a 50 buyin roll and move down straight away after losing just 1 tournament until you finally got a win at your new level.

You can calculate your required roll for each level in terms of "If I kept playing this level, what would my risk of ruin be" If that number is out of your comfort zone you should drop down.

There is no exact science because everyone has a different comfort zone, but you are correct that in theory you can never have enough money.

Lori

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume 50 buyins is a safe amount to start with to play the 33s without having to move down, and you know you're a winning player. Then let's assume you drop 30 buyins, which is supposedly a reasonable downswing. Now you're left with only 20 buyins... should you continue playing the 33s now with just 20 buyins?

This is hypothetical, but something that doesn't quite make sense to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Move up the the $55s (where I play - mwhahahaha!) and try to get your money back as fast as possible. Start to like the $55s and decide to stay.