Trying to bluff my way out of yet another tough spot

[Kirkrrr]

This always gets to me - players in position with disguised hands who refuse to make the bet on the river if they missed their draw when their opponents are obviously weak and probably would not call (1/2xPot bet would give perfect odds on the bluff). So on to the hand...

As always, 2/3 NL at Ocean'11. My opponent is a little weird - he overplays his big hands (have never seen him push all in without literally the mortal nuts), doesn't bet his draws, and rarely makes big moves, but has been caught bluffing at dangerous boards where he bet 100 into a 130 Pot in position on the river, got check-raised All-in for 115... and folded. All in all, he is not very tricky, though. He's got about 600, I got him covered. My image is very aggressive but I haven't sucked out on anyone in quite a while so for the most part my bets are respected.

I'm on Button and look down at 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UGT (Villain) calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, I raise it to 15 (my standard open-raise), Villain calls (as he always does if he already limped in), UTG+1 calls, all else fold.

Flop: 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif (Pot - 50'ish)
Check, check, I bet 40, UTG announces "i already got trips, don't know what you got," and calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: Q /images/graemlins/club.gif (170)
UTG bets 50, UTG+1 folds, I call.

River: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

He looks at me, asks "You got pocket Aces?" and checks.
I bet 150...

Comments?

Kirk

[captZEEbo1]

he's not folding tripssssssssssssss and probably not even liek AJ if he somehow has it

[scdavis0]

I wouldn't bluff here. His commentary is inducing you to bluff. I'd be almost sure that he's calling here, even with a weak hand.

[captZEEbo1]

I kind've thought his commentary was he wants you to check, but will call anything anyways, as in "I can't believe my full house was just beat by pocket aces, but I'll still make sure you have aces full".

[Kirkrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
His commentary is inducing you to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the 300 pot and the fact that I got 6-high is what's really inducing me to bluff.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be almost sure that he's calling here, even with a weak hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not anywhere near. This isn't online, this is live, where people go a few feet away and cash out the chips for real money... they don't think "Pot odds!", they think "OH my God!... $150 is a lot of money, he MUST have a hand." I don't think he's calling me with anything besides the Q, so the only question is, does he have the boat/trips.

So the way the hand played out, you would never try to bluff the river? That's really what I'm agonizing over - can you just surrender the 100BB pots without taking one last stab at it.

Kirk

[lapoker17]

The way this played out coupled with his commentary adds up to folding the second the board pairs - you're done on the turn. Wait for a better spot.

[ QUOTE ]
I kind've thought his commentary was he wants you to check, but will call anything anyways, as in "I can't believe my full house was just beat by pocket aces, but I'll still make sure you have aces full".

[/ QUOTE ]

i fully agree, happened to me before same commentary, i bluff he calls with a very strong hand

[Kirkrrr]

Don't know if anyone is still following this, but wanted to thank everyone for their comments.

He called and turned over Q8s for the trips. Oh well.

Kirk

[Lucky]

Your opponent sounds like a nut peddler trying to incorporate some trickiness into his game, but cant quite get there.

Anyway, this player calls your PF raise, calls flop bet...Bets turn small, then talks smack before checking river....is that right?