Two $22 Hands

I found these two hands interesting. One seems to be a math call (I suck at that ICM stuff so I need help), and the other is a strategy bubble push/fold question.


Hand 1
------

Seat 4 is the button

Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: BucNasty22 ( $1946 )
Seat 4: kiddkabuki ( $1040 )
Seat 5: Bytor2005 ( $2927 )
Seat 10: HERO ( $2087 )

Blinds(150/300)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 2h Th ]

BucNasty22 folds.
kiddkabuki is all-In [1040]
Bytor2005 folds.
HERO??

Do you call this? Is it an easy call or auto muck?



Hand 2
------

Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6

Seat 1: hooded4 ( $245 )
Seat 4: SooKay ( $180 )
Seat 5: SCHMITTO9393 ( $2750 )
Seat 7: jansen_21 ( $1815 )
Seat 9: gmillswild ( $885 )
Seat 10: HERO ( $2125 )

Blinds(75/150)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Kh Jd ]

HERO? Push or fold?

[Freudian]

Fold
Fold or standardraise (you will get reraised often, so I prefer folding)

[citanul]

hand 1 seems to be a very easy fold. i don't think there's really any argument to be made here, though i'm open to seeing what people come up with.

hand 2, do note that you could make a standard opening raise here instead of just open pushing or open folding. depending on the table texture, that would in fact be my decisions: standard raise or fold. at many/most tables in the lower limits, i'm open raising there for 2.x bb or so. at a tough table where you know you'll get set in if you open raise normally, i'd fold here. if the stacks and stuff were just right, sometimes i'll open raise in a spot similar to this to set up an open raise that i'm glad to call all in with later.

in fact, in certain spots here i'll just limp, sometimes reraising all in after an all in from a short stack, if it's allowed.

citanul

Thanks,

Hand one seemed interesting to me for a number of reasons:

a) I am in the BB and already have 300 sitting in the pot
b) I am gussing that I will win this pot about 40% of the time (or is this thinking totally wrong?)
c) It is the bubble, and I could gain lots of chips and get ITM
OR
I lose and still have 1000 chips and have some hope to crawl back. Is my thinking flawed here?

For the record I folded this, since I cant see myself calling with 10 2, but hey, was just wondering what you guys thought.

[jadducci]

In the first hand, although your getting about 2:1 odds (1490:740) I think folding is +EV.

Call and WIN: 2087+150+1040=3277
Call and LOSE: 2087-1040=1047
Fold: 2087-300=1787

You call and win, you become big stack and push your chips around and most get 1-2nd majority of the time. Say the EV is then approximately $85.

You call and lose, you are short and then after SB are down to 850 and are forced to push within the next 3-4 hands. I would guess you get ITM maybe 1/2 the time and so your EV is ~$30(That number is def. open for discussion)

-I fold this, you will still have a decent chip stack and can wait for a better hand to make a move.

The only situation where I think a call is reasonable is if the villian has been pushing almost every hand, because if he shows you any 2 over cards (Even 10x has you dominated) or any PP you are not getting the odds you need to make this call.