Level 3, over the top with TT?

[1C5]

Party 22.

Raiser has been tight. I have a good feeling he has AK/AQ. Do I push as a 55% favorite to double up now or fold?

Total number of players : 6
Seat 2: dubo3457 (895)
Seat 3: DohNutz (755)
Seat 4: Dr_Jeckyl_00 (705)
Seat 7: Hero (595)
Seat 9: discodollars (2070)
Seat 10: noaho9 (2980)
discodollars posts small blind (25)
noaho9 posts big blind (50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ts, Tc ]
dubo3457 raises (150) to 150
DohNutz folds.
Dr_Jeckyl_00 folds.
Hero?

[octaveshift]

With your stack size, I push this every time.

ALTHOUGH, with a "tight" player making an UTG raise, I wouldn't be super psyched about it.

[unreal_nh]

i agree

[Pete H]

Like Octave said, with your tiny stack there's not much to do but lose a coin flip.

At least I'm not good enough to fold this.

NP: Mustach - Alpha Male

[octaveshift]

OK, now I am thinking about this a bit more. (Sorry, I hopped right on 2+2 after waking up after a night of drinking Chopin martinis. Gak.)

1. When are the blinds going up?
2. How did you end up shortstacked?
3. Have you seen villain call any pushes yet, and if so, with what?

I don't think it's nearly as clear as I first thought.

The most troubling thing, IMO, are the two biggies to your immediate left. You have no FE against them, so you are probably going to need to show them a good hand. So you can either build your stack and gain some FE, or pray for a good hand when the blinds jump. I prefer the former.

With a stack of 595, you can still hurt a lot of the other players.

Personally, I know that lately I have been trying not to "panic" as much when I am hovering at 10x BB.

TT is probably *just* on the threshold for me. I'd definitely push JJ+, AK without a second thought in this spot.

Man, I'm hung over.

You dont have so much chips left so if you think he has 2 overcards is it a good time to gamble.

Sorry, I didn't see your stack size. Should've been push. Keep in mind, though, that his range must include hands that dominate you unless you have evidence that he limps them.

[applejuicekid]

How do you put someone on two overcards? I've always been amazed by people with this talent. Apparently, there are many of these geniuses on party poker. Someone please tell me the secret!

[ezmogee]

you have way too few chips to consider anything other than a push.

[1C5]

You get a knack for it after 3000 tournaments. Of course not always correct but quite often I am.

[BadMongo]

I agree that AK/AQ is the most likely holding here, but you can't just rule out high PPs either based soley on the fact that he raised in EP.

I don't see you having any FE here, so it's really just a question of how much equity you need to have against his range for pushing to be a better option than folding. Unfortunately, if you read him as tight, I don't see how you can be ahead of his range here. For example, let's say he's raising TT+, AJ+, KQ here. Tens only have 46% equity against that range. Therefore, if you think his range is similar to this, you should fold.

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that AK/AQ is the most likely holding here, but you can't just rule out high PPs either based soley on the fact that he raised in EP.

I don't see you having any FE here, so it's really just a question of how much equity you need to have against his range for pushing to be a better option than folding. Unfortunately, if you read him as tight, I don't see how you can be ahead of his range here. For example, let's say he's raising TT+, AJ+, KQ here. Tens only have 46% equity against that range. Therefore, if you think his range is similar to this, you should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it depends how often he'll get a better hand in one of the unacted players to enter too. If you assumed they'd always fold and just went with the numbers in your post then it is still clear he should fold:

EV of push and call is: 1265 * .46 + 0 * .54 = 581 but overall $EV is $16.30
EV of fold is: 595 which by $EV is $18.04

But how do you think he'd play 77-99? Limp with such a short stack? Fold?

I think his range should include some more of the low pairs you dominate.

[BadMongo]

Yeah, I assumed everyone else would fold. I was just trying to show that TT does not do well against a tight player's likely EP raising range. Factoring other potential callers in would tend to lower the EV of a push even further though, so that tends to make a fold even more correct.

Whether or not you include 77-99 in the range is debateable, but I don't see a tight player raising these from up front. Maybe 99, who knows. But even if you include those pairs (and assume that he calls your allin with them) TT would then have about 52% equity. Still not enough for a push to be correct, IMHO.

[BadMongo]

As a side note, I think this result is kind of surprising. I would definately have pushed in this position. The key factor I think is the read that villian is tight.

Good thread. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Weatherhead03]

You have yourself one wicked ass avatar.

[cha59]

[ QUOTE ]
you have way too few chips to consider anything other than a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the reason I push. Your hand isnt bad, there are a decent amount of chips in the pot, and your stack is relatively small. This could be a very good opportunity to add some much needed chips or even double up. I'd gamble here.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
You get a knack for it after 3000 tournaments. Of course not always correct but quite often I am.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic. And I sort of agree with his sentiment. There is no reason that AK is any more likely here than JJ.

Regardless, I think it's a close push here.

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You get a knack for it after 3000 tournaments. Of course not always correct but quite often I am.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic. And I sort of agree with his sentiment. There is no reason that AK is any more likely here than JJ.

Regardless, I think it's a close push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure there is. Count the number of ways he could be holding AK compared to JJ.

[curtains]

You must move allin here

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You get a knack for it after 3000 tournaments. Of course not always correct but quite often I am.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic. And I sort of agree with his sentiment. There is no reason that AK is any more likely here than JJ.

Regardless, I think it's a close push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure there is. Count the number of ways he could be holding AK compared to JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, what about JJ + QQ + KK + AA + 99? It's just stupid, in online poker, to "put someone" on such a narrow range of hands based on an UTG raise.

[BadMongo]

Can you elaborate a bit? It looks to me like you'd be behind any reasonable range a tight player is raising with in EP.

[curtains]

Please replace EP with 3 off the button (aka MP).

Basically the tightest player in the world will tend to raise AA-88 and AK-AJ, KQ maybe....now realize that almost no one is the tighest player in the world. Some people are actually much looser. Meanwhile we have under 4x the BB and TT. Folding is just flat out terrible. Folding this hand makes you just as bad as the morons who play 53s early in the tournament for a big raise.

[lastchance]

We have 12x BB Curtainz. o0.

[curtains]

lol. Okay but still we are short stacked. I actually knew that, I dont know why I said 4x, probably because we have 4x the raise. Also its not an EP raise! If the table was full , everyone would be calling it an MP raise.

[BadMongo]

OK, I agree with you about the position thing. Still, it's six handed and a tight player raised UTG. If the guy was a typical 22 donk, then the decision woulld be easy. But the OP has a read that this is not the case. Lets go ahead and open his range a bit though, say 77+, A9+, KJ+, QJ. Tens are still only 55% to win. And that's a pretty wide range for a "tight" player, IMHO. I think this is a lot closer than people are making it out to be.

[curtains]

I have to be honest I don't think its close. You just dont have enough chips to be so selective right now.