Stealing: it's only illegal if you get caught

[bigredlemon]

Stealing last to act is just too obvious. Stealing two seats off on the other hand...

Reads: villain is a mouse. VERY passive once someone takes the lead. He won't raise without a very strong hand.


PP stud 8 3/6

3rd: $4 antes
BI 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif __Brings in $1
8/images/graemlins/club.gif folds
9/images/graemlins/heart.gif folds
5/images/graemlins/heart.gif folds
9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif folds
Hero [Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif] A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif completes $3
8/images/graemlins/heart.gif folds
J/images/graemlins/club.gif folds

There's almost no hand the two behind me can call my completion with, so it looks to be a fairly safe steal and easy much if raised. Standard so far?

4th: $10
Hero [Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif] A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif __bets $3

BI xx xx 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Since he called, I'm guessing he has a reasonable hand down. If I check, I would certainly be giving up the pot right here as I'm sure he'd bet. Since quitters never win, I decide to bet out knowing I'll get called, and try to setup a second steal on 5th if he bricks, and check/fold if he doesnt. I think he'll very likely fold if does not pickup a two-way hand on fifth.


Here's my justification for betting 4th:
I'm paying $3 for a 50% chance to risk $6 to win $16. Put another way, I'm paying $7.5 for a chance to win $16. I only need to be 47% confident that he'll fold 5th to break even. I think he'll fold more often than that. If I miss, I can show my cards for free advertising that I'm a LAG fish.


Feel free to post comments before reading post #2.

[bigredlemon]

(Since there's a second part, obviously villain called. Though technically, since he has the legit hand and I'm stealing, shouldn't I be the villain?)

5th: $16
Hero [Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif] A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif __bets $6
BI xx xx 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif __calls

Good news: I actually hit a big pair
Bad news: he has a low straight draw!
Since he doesn't have a pair, I may as well charge him for his draw

6th: $28
Hero [Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif] A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif__bets $6
BI xx xx 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif__calls

His hand is getting deader and deader, and I'm still charging him for his draw. To my surprise, he folds 6th.


I think I probably read his hand wrong somewhere. Or maybe he read me for a steal and played a more marginal hand than he normally does. Having reached part two, I presume everything here is standard?

Presuming villain was not passive, do we fold 5th if he raises?
Conversely, if I have (26)53, do I raise 4th, 5th, or neither?

Personally, I've had more success raising 5th than 4th, though I do either so rarely that it's probably not a meaningful sample size.

[Alchemist]

[ QUOTE ]

There's almost no hand the two behind me can call my completion with, so it looks to be a fairly safe steal and easy much if raised. Standard so far?

[/ QUOTE ]
Looks good to me.

[ QUOTE ]

4th: $10
Hero [Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif] A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif __bets $3

BI xx xx 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Since he called, I'm guessing he has a reasonable hand down. If I check, I would certainly be giving up the pot right here as I'm sure he'd bet. Since quitters never win, I decide to bet out knowing I'll get called, and try to setup a second steal on 5th if he bricks, and check/fold if he doesnt. I think he'll very likely fold if does not pickup a two-way hand on fifth.


Here's my justification for betting 4th:
I'm paying $3 for a 50% chance to risk $6 to win $16. Put another way, I'm paying $7.5 for a chance to win $16. I only need to be 47% confident that he'll fold 5th to break even. I think he'll fold more often than that. If I miss, I can show my cards for free advertising that I'm a LAG fish.

Feel free to post comments before reading post #2.

[/ QUOTE ]
Even though he likely caught a good card, I think you almost have to bet 4th. It just looks too weak not to. You'd still lead out if you actually had split Aces right? If he raises you, you can still call and see what 5th brings and hope it's not another baby.

[Alchemist]

[ QUOTE ]

5th: $16
Hero [Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif] A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif __bets $6
BI xx xx 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif __calls

Good news: I actually hit a big pair
Bad news: he has a low straight draw!
Since he doesn't have a pair, I may as well charge him for his draw

6th: $28
Hero [Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif] A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif__bets $6
BI xx xx 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif__calls

His hand is getting deader and deader, and I'm still charging him for his draw. To my surprise, he folds 6th.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not too surprised. He may have had 4 to a low without an immediate straight draw and was hoping to make any low by 6th street. Since he caught total bricks on 5th and 6th, and you showing strength the whole way, he probably figured it was time to jump ship.

[ QUOTE ]

I think I probably read his hand wrong somewhere. Or maybe he read me for a steal and played a more marginal hand than he normally does. Having reached part two, I presume everything here is standard?

Presuming villain was not passive, do we fold 5th if he raises?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd have a hard time picturing him raising 5th, especailly with the cards that came. The Jack almost certainly didn't improve him and I can't picture a hand that he's got that can be very threatening for high. If your read on him is correct, he probably would have raised you on 4th.

[ QUOTE ]

Conversely, if I have (26)53, do I raise 4th, 5th, or neither?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a tough call. It's complicated by the fact your opponent is showing A5 and it's not entirely clear if he raised something like (23)A. I think it's dependent on what you know of his tendencies. I do like the idea of raising 4th with (26)53 in an effort to slow him down and because we've got a pretty good draw. But we have to catch a good card quickly.

[Andy B]

I fold third. Stealing may and may not show an immediate profit, but if you find yourself throwing several bets after a dog like this when it doesn't work, well, you've lost a lot more than the five bucks you were hoping to gain. And your hand is not merely weak--it's bad.

On fourth, I check and fold if the other guy bets. Given your characterization of your opponent, it seems that you should be able to get a free card or two, so I think you should try to.

I prefer the image of a tough SOB to that of the LAG fish. I think it's more profitable overall.