Do you call here?-hypothetical

[Inthacup]

Regular low limit game online:

You're in MP, 3 limpers to you and you have 7 7. CO limps, button limps, BB calls. 7.5 sb in the pot.

Flop: 4 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

BB bets, all three EP call, it's to you. You have 10.5 SB in the pot, with 2 more to act after you. Do you call here? How much does implied odds affect your decision?

[Louie Landale]

If you snag a 7 you have likely improved other hands to straight draws. You need to net 6 more BB to break even. Counting the times you snag a 7 and lose I'd guess you need to get the opponents to invest and average of 10BB when you catch. You are in weak position on future rounds and it may get raised THIS round.

Routine fold.

- Louie

[CrackerZack]

never. what could the BB be betting? A gutshot draw? Either he is crazy, or he's WAAAAAAAY ahead of you, and 3 callers, how many EP callers are now ahead of you? all? 2/3s? No, I'll pass on my 2-outer thank you.

[Binkus]

I would fold here with two cards to come your odds of making a set is slightly better than 11to1. even if all five call the flop bet and a turn bet your only getting 10.5bb to your 1.5bb. with your emplied odds you could make up for the difference if you made your hand, but in most online lowlimit games Ive played in you wont have this many callers, most likely you will only have a couple callers on a turn bet, so your implied odds dont justify calling the flop. Thats my take on it at least, any differnt views or critsicm would be appreciated though.

[Homer]

Homer Classic - I'll be getting 12.5:1 on my flop call because the two players behind me will surely call. This means I need to garner 5 big bets on the turn and river after I spike my set on the turn to make the flop call correct. With 6 other players in the hand, it will be easy for me to make >=5 big bets on the turn and river. Therefore, this is an easy call.

New Homer - I can't assume the players behind me will call. In fact they might even raise, shattering the odds I need to make a call correct. Are the players behind me passive or aggressive? If they are passive a call is more likely to be correct. Let's assume the players behind me are passive and loose and will thus call the flop bet. I'm getting 12.5:1 on the call so I need to gain 5 bets on the turn and river to make my flop call correct. However, this assumes that my set will hold up 100% of the time, which isn't the case. If I spike a 7, there will be a bunch of straight draws out there (and maybe a flush draw if the 7 is a heart) which might get there on the river. My set will probably hold up around 80% of the time. Of the 20% of the time that I lose, I will lose, on average, 4 big bets (if you're going to lose with a set, lose big!). This means I really need to win around 7.5 big bets when I win to compensate for the times I lose. That's going to be pretty damn hard to do on this board, even with up to 6 opponents. Plus, I'm assuming the best case scenario of not being raised on the flop. So really, I'll need to earn like 8-9 big bets on the expensive streets to justify my call on the flop. No way in hell. I fold.

-- Homer

[Homer]

Louie, how did you come up with 10 BB's?

Is this something you are able to ballpark due to experience, have you sat down and gone through calculations, have you performed simulations, etc?

In my post, I came up with 8-9 BB's, taking into account (roughly) the possibility of being raised on the flop and the possibility of the hand not holding up (backdoor draws getting there). Still, though, these numbers are approximations. I imagine that to come up with a more exact answer I'd need to come up with more valid numbers for the probability of being raised on the flop, the probability of the set not holding up, and the number of bets I should expect to collect when my set does hold up.

I think I asked a question somewhere in there. /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

-- Homer

[Louie Landale]

As I pushed "continue" I wanted to downgrade that 10bb to 9bb. "8-9" sounds more reasonable. 8bb = 3 opponents for a double turn bet and 2 people paying it off. Maybe that's not so out of line...

No, its subjective. Good luck counting it "exactly". It starts like this:

COST[Flop]: 1sb if its not raised on the flop. 2sb if its raised once on the flop. 1sb (and 0 benefit) if its 3-bet when it gets back to you since you fold. 3sb if its raised and then raised again behind you.

COST[Flop]: Real tough, probably around 4bb-5bb if you make your hand and still lose.

Make some rough assumptions and go for it, I guess.

- Louie

[Bob T.]

Fold.

How much does implied odds affect your decision?

Not enough to make it close. I usually chase if I am getting 17 to 1 on the flop. You aren't close to that here, and you still have players to act behind you.

[MarkD]

No I don't call and implied odds are of zero consideration.

[OffSuit72]

/forums/images/icons/confused.gif ....Mucky Wucky /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[HUSKER'66]

Fold. You were an 8/1 to hit a 7 on the flop, and you missed. As mention earlier, a 7 on the board might help someone with a str8 draw. Stay for the flop with middle pocket pairs if you spike one on the flop play aggresive,if you don't hit, routine fold.

[tewall]

Since you invited criticism, here's a small point. On the flop you're only betting 1 small bet, so the odds for continuing only need to account for 1 small bet, not 1.5 big bets.

[Bubmack]

I think he is analyzing the hand by calling the flop and turn.

That is probably not the best way of analyzing the hand, since a call on the flop and a fold on the turn is the only way the hand could conceivably be continued.

Therefore your 22-1 at a cost of 1 small bet.

Too difficult to call IMO...so I fold the small edge (if any) here.

Bubs

[Bubmack]

If you dont consider implied odds - you are losing Positive EV on many of your decisions. Its ok to chase sometimes!!!

Implied odds is the only way to analyze the hand. It just so happens that the implied odds are not great enough to justify a call.

Bubs

[ResidentParanoid]

Routine fold on the flop.

Your gut should tell you that this is a money loser. I'm sure you've played this situation many times. If you didn't flop your set, let it go. Others have justified this with the odds calculations. If the situation were different and the pot were large enough to justify a call based on odds, then you're likely to see raises and not get away with one SB on the flop.

[tewall]

"If the situation were different and the pot were large enough to justify a call based on odds, then you're likely to see raises and not get away with one SB on the flop."

Why do you think this?

[Inthacup]

The reason why I posted this is because up until recently I viewed this decision as an 11:1 call. But then I realized I'm not going to stay in until the river unless I hit my set, so the real odds on the flop call are 22:1. Which is obviously not even close. Apparently no one else here had this problem. Thanks for the input all.

[Homer]

Because as the pot grows larger it becomes increasing likely that you should raise to drive out opponents in order to increase your probability of winning the hand.

Of course, many low-limit players don't realize this, so it isn't as much of a concern as it would be in a higher limit game.

-- Homer

[Homer]

The reason why I posted this is because up until recently I viewed this decision as an 11:1 call. But then I realized I'm not going to stay in until the river unless I hit my set, so the real odds on the flop call are 22:1. Which is obviously not even close.

I'm not sure what you are trying to say. I have a feeling there might be a flaw in the way you are thinking about this, but will reserve judgement until you elaborate a little more. Why would you call before getting 11:1, but won't call now? I don't understand how your thought process has changed? What in the past led you to believe that this should be a call?

-- Homer

[tewall]

I was thinking exactly the lines of what you said. That is, I have my doubts that enough people are aware that you should be trying to drive people out to make it more likely that someone will raise with a larger pot. I think most people will raise for reasons that having nothing to do with the size of the pot.

[tewall]

I think he was saying that before his only consideration was staying until the river, in which case he would have 2 chances to hit his 22 to 1 shot, which would lower the odds to 11 to 1. (Of course, this would be assuming no turn bet, so even then it wouldn't be 11 to 1, but I think that's what he meant).

[Homer]

Okay, I see...

-- Homer

[ResidentParanoid]

I was thinking along the lines of Homer's response. Also, if you had pre-flop raising (making a large pot), it's more likely that someone has a hand worth raising (protecting) on the flop.