View Full Version : Party 55 who's the donk here part 2
I didn't get any responses to a hand that I mentioned in the other "donk" thread so I will post again as I think it is interesting.
SB 4525
BB 2070
UTG 2140
Button 1265
I have 1570 after posting a quarter of my stack (500) in the BB and have 33. Folded to big stack SB who pushes, I put SB on any 2 and call.
I am not questioning the push in SB, for me that's an easy push so if anyone's a donk in this one it's me. Was I correct to call?
KramerTM
09-11-2005, 02:30 AM
With blinds this big, I'm more than happy to get my money in here as a slight favorite. Can't get too selective this late. Also, no shorty is guaranteed to go out in the next few hands, so no value in waiting.
psyduck
09-11-2005, 02:33 AM
I hate it. I'd rather push any 2 next hand against a same-sized stack. Even if that doesn't go through (maybe big stack is aggressive again), you can push a good range the next next hand pushing into two same-sized stacks.
ace_in_the_hole
09-11-2005, 03:26 AM
I think in this scenario, you can lay this down and push your next heand against the other 2000 stack. I thinka fetr seeing you fold he may dot he same.
The problem with this push any 2 next hand idea is that the chances of me getting to do this are slim and none. If I fold now the big stack just gets even bigger and even more "pushy" and will no doubt push any 2 on the button next hand before the action gets to me in the SB.
Does this change your thinking?
bennies
09-11-2005, 04:42 AM
Biggie can push every hand with my blessings. I will fold every time and wait for shortie to race first.
I've tried this. What often happens is that after folding next hand in the SB I have 1220 to the other shorty's 1265. We then often fold one more round and then we both have less than 500. Then he manages to win a pot, I'm left way behind and am thinking man I'm such a wimp, I should have taken my chances with the 33 when I still had 2000 chips.
I just HATE folding away most of what is still a decent stack with such a small lead over the short stack.
Still like folding? Let me ask you this then, how small does your lead over "shorty" have to be before you're willing to take a chance?
Um, if you're looking 2 hands ahead then I will be the button, big stack will be UTG and still likely be pushing.
If you're thinking of the next hand after that when I'm UTG and WILL have a chance to push any 2 I will be down to 1320 I think, big stack is the BB, not sure how much FE I will have at that point.
bennies
09-11-2005, 06:33 AM
Are you calling med a wimp??!! ARE yOU?
/images/graemlins/cool.gif
haha
Ok, I don't have a formula for this. I guess if the shortie is forced to gamble first, then I'll be quite passive. Or at least wait until a decent chance comes along, calling with 33 is horrible imo.
With AT or 88 calling looks ok to me. Pushing 33 some other time with some kind of FE is fine too.
fisherman112
09-11-2005, 07:12 AM
i believe this is 100% fold for a couple reasons.
1)you're on the bubble and there's a 2bb stack in the mix.
2) you're either racing the sb or 80/20, there's no need to make this high variance a play before you're in the top 3.
MegaBet
09-11-2005, 07:14 AM
I'm never a fan of calling with low pocket pairs. You are most likely around 50% to lose out of the money, and occasionally 80% to lose. This makes it a -$EV call in the long run.
MegaBet
09-11-2005, 07:15 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Still like folding?
[/ QUOTE ]
Yes.
I'm not a big fan of calling with small pairs either (duh) especially on the bubble infact I can't remember when I last did this but I don't think it's that simple in this case. I understand what you're saying but I think what Kramer TM said also has much merit.
I don't have the ICM tool but if I understand correctly what it does it may not be accurate here anyhow as the blinds/position are critical here. I will then take a stab at calculating equities.
VERY roughly then:
If I fold I have slight lead over shorty in the battle for third, second is quite possible but first is highly unlikely. Say 40% OTM, 40% third and 20% second, this would make my chips worth 70$ how does that sound?
If I call say I'm 50-50 to win, either a slight favorite or dominated (or he has 22-23 /images/graemlins/grin.gif). If I win I need for my chips to be worth 140$ and with 4140 I believe I have more than that, am I wrong?
The more I think about this one the more I think it's a call, maybe it's close but I can't see how this could be considered a easy fold.
MegaBet
09-11-2005, 07:58 AM
[ QUOTE ]
...maybe it's close but I can't see how this could be considered a easy fold.
[/ QUOTE ]
It's not close. Easy fold. It's a call if you either had too few chips to fold or a huge stack. In this case it's neither and you have position over the other short stack. This means he'll HAVE TO play a hand before you do. I hope this makes sense to you.
[/ QUOTE ]
It's not close. Easy fold. It's a call if you either had too few chips to fold or a huge stack.
[/ QUOTE ]
No it's call if it's +EV to call.
Here is my slightly refined version of equity calling vs. equity folding.
Finishes after folding:
1 - 5%
2 - 10%
3 - 50%
4 - 35%
After calling and winning:
1 - 40%
2 - 30%
3 - 20%
4 - 10%
This would make my equity 77.5$ after folding, 165 after calling and winning which is to say 82.5 after calling.
Maybe I'm wrong, if so I'd sure be glad to hear why but an arbitrary statement like "It's a call if you either had too few chips to fold or a huge stack." doesn't prove a thing to me.
MegaBet
09-11-2005, 09:20 AM
OK, let's be generous here and assume villain just has 2 overcards that are not suited connectors, and you are basically 50/50 to win.
50% of the time you win, and using your numbers (which I haven't checked), the places are (if you win):
1 - 40%
2 - 30%
3 - 20%
4 - 10%
So, 55% of the time you get $0. Therefore, even in the best case scenario, you are more likely to finish out of the money than not. If you factor in the possibility of an overpair or suited connector (both of which are favorites over 3s), I'm estimating that number would be closer to 65%. Therefore, I stick to my judgement that this is a fold unless a) you are so shortstacked that you have to gamble, or 2) you have plenty of chips to gamble with. There would be a good case to call if you and the other shortstack were switched places, because you have position on him and he has to play a pot before you do.
Maybe we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one, but this could be a leak for you.
In terms of straight forward chip EV 33 has 53.69% pot equity against a random hand, and you are getting 1.6 to 1 on your money. So in a cash game, against a complete maniac who is pushing with any two, you have a clear call. But that's beside the point, since this is a SnG.
It is very difficult to calculate equity with four players left, but here is my attempt:
I am assuming all players are equally skilled.
Your chances of winning are proportionate to your stack size (as demonstrated by David Sklansky in 'Tournament Poker for Advanced Players').
If the above is true, then I believe it is true to say that your chances of going out next are proportionate to the sum of your opponent’s chips.
This leaves second and third to apportion percentages to. We have a figure for first and fourth, so we can work out how often we come second OR third, but there is no easy way to estimate the split. I have split them equally.
FOLD
1. 15.7(250) = 39.25
2. 28.1(150) = 42.15
3. 28.1(100) = 28.10
4. 28.1(0) = 0
Total = 109.5
CALL
1. 41.4(250) = 103.5
2. 19.54(150) = 29.31
3. 19.53(100) = 19.53
4. 19.53(0) = 0
Total = 0.5369(152.34) = 81.79
This would indicate a fold.
Adjusting these figures for the fact that the small stack will be posting the BB before you would make the decision to fold even better.
Not what I expected.
BadMongo
09-11-2005, 11:10 AM
Doesn't anyone else use SGA? I mean geez...
This is clear, clear fold. If the bigstack is pushing any two, you lose $11.59 in equity just by making this one call. If the biggie is being even a little selective here, it's even worse. No room for debate here, this is a fold.
[ QUOTE ]
If the bigstack is pushing any two, you lose $11.59 in equity just by making this one call.
[/ QUOTE ]
How did you figure that, out of interest?
BadMongo
09-11-2005, 11:17 AM
As I implied in my previous post, this is what SGA calculated assuming that the SB is pushing any two.
Or are you asking how SGA calculates that number?
I'm tempted ask you of you entered the data correctly, 11.59 -EV OMG.
I am surprised but if what you say is true then obviously I am wrong here by a lot. Hopefully I will get the chance to put this hand through SGA myself sometime soon (not saying I doubt you btw) and I look forward to that.
Does SGA tell you what my equities are folding and calling or just the -11.59 part? I would love to know where I erred with my equity guesses.
MegaBet
09-11-2005, 12:04 PM
Thanks Mark, that's basically what I'm getting at.
Yes, how does it convert stack size to $?
MegaBet
09-11-2005, 12:06 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't anyone else use SGA? I mean geez...
This is clear, clear fold. If the bigstack is pushing any two, you lose $11.59 in equity just by making this one call. If the biggie is being even a little selective here, it's even worse. No room for debate here, this is a fold.
[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the confirmation. I was starting to second guess myself for a minute there!
I guess I should have read the FAQs.
I assume it uses ICM, since this gives the same answer. That should help me figure out a few of my own hands...
BadMongo
09-11-2005, 12:21 PM
http://www3.sympatico.ca/ntcampbell/SGA.JPG
BadMongo
09-11-2005, 12:23 PM
Yes, it uses ICM. There are some good links in the FAQ to resources that will explain/calculate ICM numbers for you.
You were starting to second guess yourself? Was I that persuasive?
All kidding aside, it seems you were right and I was wrong. I can't wait to get my hands on SGA now, I'm still having a hard time understanding where I went so wrong with my thinking.
BadMongo
09-11-2005, 12:28 PM
It just goes to show you how bad calling all-in on the bubble is. If you have a decent stack you have to be a substantial favourite to call an all-in. With 33, you are barely a favourite against a random hand, and certainly not far enough ahead to risk going out in 4th.
Thankyou for this. Very interesting.
After folding equity is over 100$, thats where I was waaaaaaaaay off. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif
Good to know, thanks again. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Yeah I knew calling on the bubble is awful, I just thought small lead on shorty, still over 2000 chips, only calling for 1570 with 2570 already in the pot, lots of mitigating factors made me think. Good to know that even with all that calling is HORRIBLE. Thanks again for setting me straight.
Will repeat over and over to myself - calling on the bubble bad. Wimpily slinking ITM good.
BadMongo
09-11-2005, 12:44 PM
Calling bad. Pushing good.
Glad I could help. /images/graemlins/cool.gif
curtains
09-11-2005, 12:45 PM
Im quite sure that folding is correct.
Very good job with the equity estimates at least compared to my woeful attempt.
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