PP15: i fold a flush draw

[TStoneMBD]

bunch of people in #sstakes couldnt agree on the fold, so i thought id post it here.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $15.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Hero calls, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero folds

[neuroman]

I think that's a safe fold. You're looking at the prospect of sinking a lot of bets into a pot when there's a very good chance you're drawing dead.

[gharp]

I've never played 15/30, but this looks like a pretty clear call to me. Can you be that sure you're up against a bigger flush draw? You're getting 6:1 immediate odds, and the worst case scenario to me looks like BB folds and CO caps (21:4 -&gt; ~5:1).

I think calling &gt; capping &gt; folding.

[hobbsmann]

good fold.

[krishanleong]

I call. It's being played like made hands, not like a flush draw.

Krishan

[kurosh]

[ QUOTE ]
I call. It's being played like made hands, not like a flush draw.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]I agree.

[Ryan11]

Easy fold there IMO

[baronzeus]

i told you while you after you played the hand that its a fairly easy call for me since im flush-dominated so rarely.

we should consider capping too.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
i told you while you after you played the hand that its a fairly easy call for me since im flush-dominated so rarely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on raw probabilities you aren't, but after doing some Bayesian analysis during this hand, you might be this time.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i told you while you after you played the hand that its a fairly easy call for me since im flush-dominated so rarely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on raw probabilities you aren't, but after doing some Bayesian analysis during this hand, you might be this time.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often can somebody do Bayesian analysis in the course of a hand? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ellipse_87]

What is it in particular about this flop texture and the action that makes a higher flush draw loom larger than it otherwise would?

The three-bet is the only thing that's out of the ordinary, but that move contra-indicates a flush draw for that player. It's consistent with a low Axh trying to buy outs for his A, or maybe Kxh trying protect, but is that enough to get us out of the hand?

[smokingrobot]

you could very well be against a better flush draw, and with 3 bets from your right, its posibly dangerous. You're only getting 6:1 from the pot at this moment and although the later street may yield more money, you run risk of a better flush, or not hitting yours at all.

but maybe my math is wrong, so i want to ask what pecent of the time is there a flush draw on the board and you hold 2 medium flush cards but are up against a higher flush draw, its a small # for sure, right?

w/ all that limping pre-flop though... i dont know.

i'll read the rest of the thread and see what the arguement against folding was here. (just wanted to post my thoughts before they became tainted by a better player's answer)

(edited the odds i wrote, im really not that stupid, just careless)

[ellipse_87]

Actually, the exceptions I mentioned are more significant than I thought.

Any four-flush with an A, K, or Q could be three-betting here, and those hands account for a large percentage of the possible four-flushes out there. So, the 3-bet cannot be interpreted as excluding a flush draw for that player. But, I'm still curious, is there anything about that bet, or any other action on the flop, that suggests a flush draw is more likely than it otherwise would be?

edit--

Is it just that the expansive betting suggests lack of concern over the 2-suited flop, which leaves us more vulnerable to a re-draw (because the Ah or Kh is certainly out there) and increases the chances of our drawing dead?

Someone help. I feel dumb.

[Munga30]

If I give you 2% equity when your flush draw is dead and 37% equity when your flush draw is live and always make you put in 4 bets on the flop, I think your flush draw needs to be live about 65% of the time to break even on four way flop action and about 51% of the time on five way action. Then the overlay from the pot drops those each down a couple of %. I think calling's the way to go, but it's close.

Are you counting redraws to a full house in that 37%?

[Munga30]

It's an estimate of total equity, so yeah, redraws against and runner-runner for. It's a WAG from me. Take it for what it's worth.