21 outs to improve, 8 to nuts do I lead out?

[Vee Quiva]

Wondering about my decision on the turn.....

***** Hand History for Game 2689002393 *****
1/2 Omaha Hi/Lo Game Table (Limit) - Sat Sep 10 17:47:01 EDT 2005
Table Table 31782 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: williejoe13 ( $28.61)
Seat 2: ACEMORE ( $60.86)
Seat 3: juice_1966 ( $57.86)
Seat 4: godyov ( $42)
Seat 5: porterfield1 ( $20.83)
Seat 6: larryvq ( $61)
Seat 7: desert7 ( $35.88)
Seat 8: InaRage ( $47.50)
Seat 9: tectex ( $93.14)
Seat 10: USA11 ( $28.75)
porterfield1 posts small blind (0.50)
larryvq posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to larryvq [ 9s, 4s, 7h, 8h ]
desert7 folds.
InaRage calls (1)
tectex folds.
USA11 calls (1)
williejoe13 folds.
ACEMORE calls (1)
juice_1966 calls (1)
godyov folds.
porterfield1 calls (0.50)
larryvq checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4h, Jh, Js ]
porterfield1 checks.
larryvq checks.
InaRage checks.
USA11 checks.
ACEMORE checks.
juice_1966 checks.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Tc ]
porterfield1 checks.


Do I bet here? Do I go for a check raise?

[DeadMoneyOC]

EASY check/fold

[Mr_J]

It appears you have many outs but you don't. All of your draws are to poor hands.

[Ribbo]

You were dead on the flop, the guy with quad jacks checked hoping some chump would try and draw to a straight or flush once the board had paired.

You are that chump.

[Eric P]

You have nothing, and you are probably dead even if you get there. Maybe you posted wrong and the board isn't paired?

[Vee Quiva]

hmmm let's see.
No preflop raise.
Checked through on flop.
Any chance a bunch of low draws out there that are now dead?
By the way, 4 jacks is a verrrry remote possibility. Coach me with 3 of a kind or a full house.

[Buzz]

VQ - Good idea! Go ahead and bet!

You need the steal to work more than one time out of four to have favorable odds.

You know where 8 cards are and collectively your five opponents have 20 cards. Assuming randomness, the probability no jack is amongst the twenty is
C(42,20)/C(44,20)
or about 29%.
In other words, if you took the known cards out ot the deck and dealt out 20 cards to five opponents, the probability at least one jack would be amongst the twenty cards would be about 71%.

That's about seven times out of every ten at least one opponent will have been dealt a jack - assuming random cards for these opponents. That doesn't look especially good for your steal attempt.

However, doesn't it seem like anyone who had a jack would have bet the flop, just to protect his/her hand! Therefore when nobody bets the flop, it looks like nobody has a jack.

Another possibility is someone could have flopped fours full of jacks and is afraid to bet it. Considering you have a four in your hand, that's something of the order of 31 to 1 against.

The problem is everyone you play against in a poker game, especially at low limits, does not have the wisdom of Solomon. It's plausible that someone could hold a jack here and could somehow not have bet this flop.

However, even without the wisdom of solomon, anybody with a jack will probably at least call if you bet.

Thus if you bet and anyone calls, I think you have to figure them for a jack - and I think you also have to figure they'll hang in there for the showdown. Maybe they don't and maybe they won't, but I think you have to figure they do and they will.

Meanwhile, you figure to make a straight or a flush on the river about 20/43 or about 46.5% - but against random cards you'll only win about 27% when you do make a flush or straight. (That's via a simulation).

Thus you really do have a crummy hand and a crummy board fit.

However maybe nobody has a jack, and maybe they'll worry that you have at least a jack if you bet.

Therefore you can go ahead and bet, hoping to steal the pot.

Might work! You could plausably hold a jack with a weak kicker, not have flopped a full house, meekly decided to check, but now that nobody else has bet, you've decided it's time to bet your jack with the weak kicker. It's even plausible you flopped quads or a full house and decided to slow play a round, or that you made a full house or quads on the turn.

Therefore, sure, take a flyer here to see if you can steal a pot. You're getting three to one odds for the attempt and considering the betting up to this point, assuming you have credibility with your opponents, the ploy might work for you more than one time out of four.

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, 4 jacks is a verrrry remote possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... not really. I think it's about 31 to 1 against, about the same as somebody having flopped fours full. That makes it a long shot, and nothing to worry much about in a limit game, but I don't think of it as an extremely remote possibility. (What's in a word)?

Just my opinion. I like betting to steal the pot here.

Buzz

p.s. This is no big deal. Doesn't matter one way or the other for the main principles involved in the reasoning. But I only count 20 outs, not 21.

[Ribbo]

In a pot limit game, sure I would bet and try to steal it, in a limit game, meh.

[gergery]

I might bet out there, but I would consider it close to a pure bluff.

[Buzz]

Ribbo - Maybe you’re right and it won’t work often enough.

I have ten chips lined up in a line in front of me. Seven of the chips are blue and three are red. That’s because roughly only three times out of ten when you deal twenty cards to five opponents, after taking eight cards out of the deck including two jacks, none of your five opponents will be dealt a jack. Now I’m stacking three blue chips on top of each of the red chips. That’s because if everybody who doesn’t have a jack (or better) folds when you bet, you’ll win the three big bets already in the pot.

You should easily see that over the course of ten attempts, you’ll lose seven bets but you’ll win nine.

When you bet, nobody without a jack belongs in this pot. That’s obviously an oversimplification. Somebody with a pair of fours (31 to 1 against) belongs in this pot. And somebody with two overpairs also belongs in this pot. I have no idea, offhand, what the odds are of somebody here having two overpairs here. Let’s see..... maybe about two hundred fifty to one against. Something of that order of magnitude? Whatever it is, I’m not worrying about that one. (Never a guarantee I hit the right buttons on my TI34 Texas instruments calculator).

Well... somebody with a pair of tens also belongs in the pot. That’s not so remote as two overpairs.... maybe only seventeen or eighteen to one against. Something like that, assuming I punched the numbers into my calculator correctly. Never a guarantee of that.

Somebody slow-playing four jacks is a possibility. But it’s only about 0.03 (the probability) someone here was dealt a pair of jacks. Something of that order, I think. And I already included it in the jacks consideration.

Put it all together (the chance of fours or tens full, two overpairs, or a jack or two) and maybe it’s closer to eight to two than seven to three that somebody dealt cards randomly will have a hand with which they belong in the pot.

But remember that nobody has bet the flop. And I think that makes it less likely anybody actually does have a jack. How much less likely is hard to say. Depends on these particular opponents.

The biggest danger here, I think, is that somebody has simply screwed up and not bet a jack when it should have been bet (after the flop on betting round #2) - and now will tag along. More likely than that is somebody will chase just because of poor playing habits - but if Hero gets a caller it’s difficult and probably unwise for Hero to bet again.

Another danger is an opponent who correctly reads Hero for a bluff here and is in position to steal the pot with a counter-bluff. Those moves are usually very unwise in limit Omaha-8. It’s just too likely that somebody has what they’re representing. Here Hero would be representing a jack or better for the bluff - and it’s very plausible Hero actually does have a jack or better.

(Guys who try fancy moves like counter-bluffs in limit Omaha-8 games move on to pot limit Omaha-8 or no-limit Texas hold 'em where those sorts of stunts work more often, but with the end result that in spite of some successes with their stunts, the fancy move syndrome players lose their money even faster.)

Anyhow, I’m leaving the chips the way they’re stacked, seven blue and three red. And three blue chips on top of each red chip. And I’m figuring the chance of stealing this pot in a low limit game is not as remote as you seem to think.

Maybe I’m wrong. But what’s to lose by trying here? One big bet? And if it doesn’t work, you get advertising value worth many times more than that one big bet, assuming you play wisely.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I might bet out there, but I would consider it close to a pure bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg - Yes.

In my humble opinion, a bet here is a bluff.

You have to choose your opportunities to bluff carefully in limit Omaha-8. Ideally you steal a pot, nobody knows, and then you steal another pot, also without anyone knowing... and then another pot, and then another.

However, if you try it <font color="white">_</font>too often, you're going to get caught, and then continued bluffs don't work well, except as continued (and, in my humble opinion, necessary) advertising. (But you don't want to pay <font color="white">_</font>too much for advertising). Opponents remember for years when you bluff them out of a nice pot and have to show down your hand! And you can make that work for you - but you have to cut way, way back with the bluffs against these guys to make it work well.

But every once in a while, it's somehow very satisfying to bluff and steal a pot. I think you have to choose your spots carefully. This, in my humble opinion, is a possible spot to try one.

Buzz

[Buzz]

I should have looked at this before. The probability of one of five opponents with random cards holding a pair of jacks is not 0.03.

Instead it's about 0.05. I did my daily walk after posting a reply to Ribbo. I actually did the jacks calculation late last night. As I was walking it popped into my head that the number was about 5%, not 3%. Funny how those things pop into my head over the background brain music that's always there. (Right now Prokofiev's fifth is playing. Whatever.)

At any rate, I just ran a simulation to check my pop-up idea and one of five opponents with random cards has quad jacks 5.37%. If I run the sim again, the percentage will almost surely be a bit different, but it's still going to be in the neighborhood of 5%.

I must have punched in a wrong number (or whatever) to get the 3%. Don't know why I didn't remember earlier that it's more like 5%. Whatever.

I apologize for my error. Doesn't change my opinion this is a good spot for a bluff.

Buzz

[Buzz]

Well, that was stupid of me. I ran the sim including the possibility a jack showed up on the river. In that case an opponent holding one jack would make quads.

But that’s not all. Before making that correction, we have to figure the probability ofan opponent making quad tens - or at least the proportion of quad jacks to quad tens.

From what is know to Hero, the board could make a pair of tens on the river 3/43. And if that happens, an opponent has the same chance of making quad tens as quad jacks. I think that makes the probability an opponent makes quad tens on the river 3/43 of the probability an opponent makes quad jacks on the river.

So first, lets reduce that 537 simulation result by 40/43. 537*40/43 = ~500.

Then, with what is known to Hero, a jack will appear on the river 1/44. 1/44 may not seem like much, but in 10000 trials, it’s about 227 times. When that happens, one of Hero’s five opponents with random cards figures to have the case jack 20/43. And then one of Hero’s five opponents will have the case jack and will thus make quads 227*20/43 = ~106.

So second, let’s reduce that 500 by 106.
500-106 = 394.

Looks like about 4%.

Doing it another way, I earlier got ~3%.

I might come back to this later and work on it some more, but there’s other poker stuff I want to do first - and there’s lots of non-poker stuff my wife wants me to do.

So I’ll leave it there for now. I’m certain my 5% posted correction is too high and I currently think the chance one of Hero’s five opponents holds a pair of jacks after the turn is about 3% or 4%. Something like that. Maybe the mathematicians in the group have a better idea.

Buzz

[Vee Quiva]

Here's how it turned out for the results oriented crowd.

In hindsight, the check raise on the turn was a really bad idea, but after it was checked all around until the late player, I thought my bet would clear out most of the riff raff, which it did.

***** Hand History for Game 2689002393 *****
1/2 Omaha Hi/Lo Game Table (Limit) - Sat Sep 10 17:47:01 EDT 2005
Table Table 31782 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: williejoe13 ( $28.61)
Seat 2: ACEMORE ( $60.86)
Seat 3: juice_1966 ( $57.86)
Seat 4: godyov ( $42)
Seat 5: porterfield1 ( $20.83)
Seat 6: larryvq ( $61)
Seat 7: desert7 ( $35.88)
Seat 8: InaRage ( $47.50)
Seat 9: tectex ( $93.14)
Seat 10: USA11 ( $28.75)
porterfield1 posts small blind (0.50)
larryvq posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to larryvq [ 9s, 4s, 7h, 8h ]
desert7 folds.
InaRage calls (1)
tectex folds.
USA11 calls (1)
williejoe13 folds.
ACEMORE calls (1)
juice_1966 calls (1)
godyov folds.
porterfield1 calls (0.50)
larryvq checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4h, Jh, Js ]
porterfield1 checks.
larryvq checks.
InaRage checks.
USA11 checks.
ACEMORE checks.
juice_1966 checks.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Tc ]
porterfield1 checks.
larryvq checks.
InaRage checks.
USA11 checks.
ACEMORE checks.
juice_1966 bets (2)
porterfield1 folds.
larryvq raises (4) to 4
InaRage folds.
USA11 folds.
ACEMORE did not respond in time.
ACEMORE folds.
juice_1966 calls (2)
** Dealing River ** : [ Kc ]
larryvq checks.
juice_1966 checks.
** Summary **
Main Pot: $13.25 | Rake: $0.75
Board: [ 4h Jh Js Tc Kc ]
williejoe13 balance $28.61, didn't bet (folded)
ACEMORE balance $59.86, lost $1 (folded)
juice_1966 balance $66.11, bet $5, collected $13.25, net +$8.25 [ Qs 4c Qh 7s ] [ two pairs, queens and jacks -- Kc,Qs,Qh,Jh,Js ]
godyov balance $42, didn't bet (folded)
porterfield1 balance $19.83, lost $1 (folded)
larryvq balance $56, lost $5 [ 9s 4s 7h 8h ] [ two pairs, jacks and fours -- Jh,Js,9s,4s,4h ]
desert7 balance $35.88, didn't bet (folded)
InaRage balance $46.50, lost $1 (folded)
tectex balance $93.14, didn't bet (folded)
USA11 balance $27.75, lost $1 (folded)

[theben]

where is 8 nut outs?

[Vee Quiva]

Good catch.
The original thought was since it was checked on the flop and checked almost all around on the turn, that no one had 4 Jacks and no one was playing with 3 of a kind or full house yet. Thus making a straight or a flush the nuts by the end.

I counted all my straight outs as the nuts but that is incorrect. I only have 3 outs to the nuts which are the 3 7's left. All the other straight outs are non nut straights.

[Ribbo]

Where is 1 nut out?