PP15: passive play with a strong hand

[TStoneMBD]

i am villain in this hand. hero probably has no stats on me as im on a new screen name for these limits.

hero is 17/10/2.2 after 11k hands with a winrate of 2.2BB/100.

hero is AJo UTG

hero raises, folded to the BB who 3bets, hero calls.

Flop: A rag rag rainbow.

villain bets, hero calls

Turn: rag

villain bets, hero calls

River: rag

villain bets, hero calls

[Michael Davis]

Hero played perfectly.

-Michael

[jason_t]

Standard wa/wb.

[TStoneMBD]

isnt a river raise for value good poker? folding to a 3bet should be easy.

[jason_t]

Let's start working on analysis of that idea of raising the river. Intuitively I don't like it.

I don't know what your 3-betting standards are here. Maybe:

AA - 1
AK - 8
AQ - 8
KK - 6
QQ - 6
JJ - 6
TT - 6

I also don't know if you'll lead all streets with TT/JJ but they should be discounted some as you might not. Let's discount them to, say, 3 each. Hero is ahead of 18 combos and behind 17. 18/35 = 51% so Hero isn't ahead often enough for a raise to be profitable.

Maybe you 3-bet 99 preflop or maybe you won't lead all streets with QQ. I don't know, but what I've done seems like a fairly sensible start.

[thesharpie]

There are only 3 combos of JJ to begin with.

Another reason not to raise the river is you're not gonna be ahead anywhere near 50% when villain calls it. For instance the hands that are questionable he even holds, 99-JJ, are not often calling a river raise.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]


There are only 3 combos of JJ to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks.

[ QUOTE ]
Another reason not to raise the river is you're not gonna be ahead anywhere near 50% when villain calls it. For instance the hands that are questionable he even holds, 99-JJ, are not often calling a river raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that's essentially why raising is intuitively not correct.

[Michael Davis]

I think hero has to consider folding the river. Raising looks insane to me, he's losing that second bet a pretty heavy amount of time it gets called.

-Michael

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero played perfectly.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup

Krishan