Party 55, Who's the donk here?

Blinds 250-500. I am chip leader on the button with QJo.

Chips counts are:
SB 1640
BB 3280
UTG 1190
HERO 3890

Folded to me, I push. BB calls with AK and cripples me.

I think I did the right thing but ...

[Iamafish]

But what? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

But I wouldn't mind being reassured, or told I'm wrong. Hope this helps.

[Iamafish]

Sorry.

I cant tell you if it was +EV exactly as Iam intoxincated.

I would fold, DEPEDNING on read. I have UTG to steal from and push around.

Fair enough. The only read I remember having was that BB seemed solid.

[Iamafish]

Yeah, like I said can't really tell you if it was +EV.

I myself don't really rely fully on ICM, more on reads, and my intuition. But ICM is good.

If he was tight, maybe I'd push yeah. But really whats the point, I have to short stacks to f*ck with, Im looking good, ya know?

I like to think about, "could I take these guys ITM, and heads up?" to also make my decisions.

Now this is just my little concept or what have you, but I like to put all that together when making a decision on the bubble, unless Im tilting.

I also just realized blinds are 250/500. Id just let 3 go at it mostly.

[chisness]

HE is the donk and should only be calling with big pairs

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
HE is the donk and should only be calling with big pairs

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. 2nd stack has only 6bb and he probably knows that hero is pushing a lot here. I think calling with AK is correct for BB here.

[BadMongo]

There's no way calling with AK is correct there.

As to the OP, this is a very easy push.

EDIT: actually, I just plugged it into SGA, and it's a lot closer than I thought. Depends on your read of the BB.

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no way calling with AK is correct there.

As to the OP, this is a very easy push.

EDIT: actually, I just plugged it into SGA, and it's a lot closer than I thought. Depends on your read of the BB.


[/ QUOTE ]

what is correct to be calling with?

[michw]

Without crunching any numbers I believe it's correct for you to push here, but it may also be correct for the BB to call. If you've been pushing almost any two, I may take a shot at you with AK, try to collect 6500 chips, which gives me a great shot at winning the thing. The other two shortstacks still have 1200+ and may not be going anywhere for a while. If they have have < 700 chips or so I lay the AK down for sure.

[The Don]

Him.

[BadMongo]

Calling with AK is -0.9%, and that's if hero is pushing any two here, which he probably isn't. If the BB is for some reason 100% certain that hero is pushing any two here, only a call with pocket pairs 88-AA is +EV.

Note that if hero is even a little selective about what he's pushing here, that call range quickly shrinks even more. If he's only pushing only the top 50% of hands, for example, the call range shrinks to JJ+.

[BadMongo]

This is only a "push any two" situation if you can confidently put the BB on a very tight range, like 99+, AJs+, AKo. The SB needs to be pretty tight as well.

Question:

I'm curious as to what you put for calling ranges for this push to be only slightly +EV. I actually tried to (finally) download Eastbays thingy but there's a message on the website that I'm out of luck til Sep 13.

My impression of the 55's is that very few will lay down AK here but I still can't see BB calling with any more than AK and maybe JJ+. If he would call with less then he's not as solid as I thought at the time. I think I'm calling with AA, KK and probably QQ as well but that's all. With the stacks the way they are I don't want to be not first into a pot against the other big stack without at least QQ. I wasn't pushing any 2 here either, not sure what my pushing range was actually but what I did just seemed like a good idea at the time.

I just had another look at the HH, maybe my image sucks. I suspect I may have made a mistake here, this from a few hands earlier and how I got to be the big stack.

SB 4525
BB 2070
UTG 2140
Button 1265

I have 1570 after posting the BB and have 33. Folded to big stack SB who pushes, I call and win against his QT. I did figure SB was pushing any 2 but I'm far from sure I was correct to call. I would sure like to hear some opinions here, I forgot about this hand but looking at it now I think I should be concentrating more on this one then the push. Man I really gotta get Eastbay's thingy!

Oh and thanks for all the responses so far, I really do appreciate it.

[Ogre]

nobody is a donk in this hand. you both played correct

Nobody's a donk this hand? Man the 55's are getting tough. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Chaostracize]

I'm amazed at all the responses that say to push. This is a fold and I fold this all day every day. I'm not tight on the bubble by any means, but people like opening up their ranges and while it hurts them more than it hurts you, it's important to remember that they do this, and act accordingly. With a player that has 2 BBs and is getting hit up next hand, I fold this happily.

Easy, easy fold.

[michw]

As I stated previously, I would call w/ AK. Even though the ICM analysis shows it to be slightly -$EV I don't think it's a terrible play. 1st and 4th are my highest % finishes respectively, probably because I tend to make calls like this.

[BigHobo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm amazed at all the responses that say to push. This is a fold and I fold this all day every day. I'm not tight on the bubble by any means, but people like opening up their ranges and while it hurts them more than it hurts you, it's important to remember that they do this, and act accordingly. With a player that has 2 BBs and is getting hit up next hand, I fold this happily.

Easy, easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I fold this also. I used to make pushes like these and would get called by all kinds of crap (@ 215) and go down in flames. If the original poster had an extra 750 and BB had 750 less then it would be worth it but this is just life or death and I don't want to do with those cards.

[chisness]

anyone have a big problem with a raise to 1200? does BB play back here with a wide enough range (or even nothing) to make this bad? how often do $55ers steal here compared to $215ers?

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm amazed at all the responses that say to push. This is a fold and I fold this all day every day. I'm not tight on the bubble by any means, but people like opening up their ranges and while it hurts them more than it hurts you, it's important to remember that they do this, and act accordingly. With a player that has 2 BBs and is getting hit up next hand, I fold this happily.

Easy, easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do u know how loose their callin range is? If he caling with 77+, A9+... then this is a +1.2% push... HUGELEY +EV!!! If he gets looser than that-- then you COULD be in trouble...

If he picks up a top 10% of hands (A9+, 77+) , then so be it.. but those free 750 chips are too good to pass up-- it's pushes like these which increase your 1sts and 4ths...

If you want to fold this because there is a guy w/ 2x BB left-- then that is totaly not understandable... it's because there is a guy w /2x BB that u HAVE TO push this. IF u pick up the blinds, u can push next hand with any 2-- that's 1500 chips. This is so standard-- he picked up a MONSTER and u still had a 33% chance of having a 7500 chips stack w/ 3 left.

[Chaostracize]

With the BB being able to cripple you, the risk far outweighs the return. As was stated, if I had about 500 more and BB had 500 less I would do it in a heartbeat. I'm still in great shape without pushing this. I do not these t750 at this point. I get calls with K high constantly on the bubble, with second biggest stacks; it makes no sense. But you have to take this into consideration. Unless you have a solid read that villain is tight there is no way a push can be a good play here.

[BadMongo]

[ QUOTE ]
As I stated previously, I would call w/ AK. Even though the ICM analysis shows it to be slightly -$EV I don't think it's a terrible play.

[/ QUOTE ]

It amazes me that even with the wealth of information regarding ICM on this board, people still makes statements like this.

[BadMongo]

I think this is an easy push at the 55s. If this was an 11 or a 22, I would agree with you, but most players at the 55s are competant enough to know they can't call with K-high in that spot.

Like I said initially, this is very read dependent on the BB, but as long as he's not a donk I'm shoving my chips in there. You just can't pass up that much +EV because its "too risky".

Edit: also,

[ QUOTE ]
The only read I remember having was that BB seemed solid

[/ QUOTE ]

[Iamafish]

[ QUOTE ]
With the BB being able to cripple you, the risk far outweighs the return. As was stated, if I had about 500 more and BB had 500 less I would do it in a heartbeat. I'm still in great shape without pushing this. I do not these t750 at this point. I get calls with K high constantly on the bubble, with second biggest stacks; it makes no sense. But you have to take this into consideration. Unless you have a solid read that villain is tight there is no way a push can be a good play here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my exact thinking.

You don't NEED the blinds in this spot.

And if you WANT them, you can get the from UTG.

Its also going to be a push fest when you get ITM, just because you have a big stack does (if you win your pushes = somewhere around t5000) doesnt give you a better chance to win coin flips (and thats IF you make it ITM).

[BadMongo]

It's not about needing the blinds. It's about taking advantage of a +EV spot. Do you like money? This situation is saying, "here, have some money"... and you're saying, "no thanks, I don't like money."

[Iamafish]

.....What are you talking about?

The situation is, wanna flip a coin?

EDIT: This one I'd like to say depends on style of play. Im sure all kinds of good players have different views, and especially if you were actually sitting at that table.

[FlyWf]

No way you're stealing from UTG next hand. He has 2 BB. Play money SNG players will call that push getting almost 5 to 1. This is a pretty good stealing spot, though I'd still recommend a fold.

[Iamafish]

I thought about that also. So thats why Im leaning on reads more.

Im sure everyone would have different thoughts if they were actually sitting there.

EDIT: FlyWF brought to my attention that, these blinds are big, and yes UTG and other shorty would pretty much call a push. Basically everyone has a wider range. This is a difficult hand, for me atleast, that I can't make out away from the table.

[tigerite]

That, even if he KNEW you had QJo, he shouldn't call with AKo anyway (because he needs to win 67.5% of the time). Even if he called with the exact hands he can in this situation (QQ+, AJ, AQ, KJ, KQ) it's +EV, adding AK and say TT, JJ doesn't alter this, just makes it slightly less +EV anyway.

[BadMongo]

[ QUOTE ]
.....What are you talking about?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm talking about a cool little thing we have called ICM, which tells us that we make money by pushing here.

[ QUOTE ]
The situation is, wanna flip a coin?

[/ QUOTE ]

How is this a coinflip situation at all? The BB folds the vast majority of hands here and we pick up the blinds.

[tigerite]

Agreed.. interestingly though the SB should call with more than the BB does, in theory he only needs to be a ~58% favourite to call..

[Iamafish]

Thats one of the reasons I didn't like it. Id rather push agiants one. Reads.

[tigerite]

Thing is even if he does call with the hands exactly 58% favourite against QJo, with the BB calling with the range I said it's above +1% $EV..

[BadMongo]

Yup... I considered that as well. If you put the BB on a tight range like TT+, AQs+, AKo, then the cutoff point for this play to still be +EV would be a SB range of top 35% (22+, A2+, K5o+, K2s+, Q9o+, Q8s+, J9s+).

I can't see the SB calling with that many hands considering the short stack is in the BB next hand. So if hero's read is good, a push is definately +EV.

[michw]

Maybe I've got a big leak in my game that I need to think about and fix. I honestly never knew to take the ICM numbers so rigidly. This is one of those situations that they can be taken so rigidly? I don't know enough about ICM to answer that question myself. I've played almost 2K s&g's at the 33 level with a 15% 1st and 14% 4th finish distribution, which I'm happy with. I assumed that this was because I'm willing to gamble like this on the bubble. But maybe I'm just running well, or maybe I'm just too easily satisfied.

[AlphaWice]

At this level people do not understand that it is incorrect to call with AK. This is the reason you should fold.

[BadMongo]

Well, there definately are cases when the ICM numbers should not be taken rigidly. This is not one of those cases. The numbers aren't even remotely close to AK being a call. There are lots of factors that could make it correct to go against a marginal ICM calculation, but this isn't a marginal situation, and there are no such factors in this hand. The validity of ICM has been discussed to death, and I'm not going to go into detail here.

The point is, you can't just ignore the ICM numbers. If your goal is to make money, you should be following the ICM numbers unless you believe that the assumptions of the model do not apply to a particular situation for one reason or another. You can't just go against ICM unless you understand exactly why it might be in error. That requires a solid understanding of the model. I'm not trying to be harsh here, but for you to say something like "ICM says AK is a fold here, but I think calling is right" without even trying to explain why ICM is wrong shows that you really don't have this understanding. But since I see posts like that all the time, you clearly aren't the only one.

Sorry I had to call you out like this, but it needed to be said. The good news is that there's a TON of information on this stuff for you to learn if you choose to. I think if you read up on some of that ICM theory and maybe try to do some calculations (by hand, not with SGA), your game will improve a lot.

[BadMongo]

[ QUOTE ]
At this level people do not understand that it is incorrect to call with AK. This is the reason you should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, its not.

Go ahead and put AK in the BB calling range. It's still not a fold. Hell, go ahead and put AQ and AJ in there too... still not a fold.

[michw]

[ QUOTE ]
The point is, you can't just ignore the ICM numbers. If your goal is to make money, you should be following the ICM numbers unless you believe that the assumptions of the model do not apply to a particular situation for one reason or another. You can't just go against ICM unless you understand exactly why it might be in error. That requires a solid understanding of the model. I'm not trying to be harsh here, but for you to say something like "ICM says AK is a fold here, but I think calling is right" without even trying to explain why ICM is wrong shows that you really don't have this understanding. But since I see posts like that all the time, you clearly aren't the only one.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, and I'm unable to do that in this scenario given my current ICM knowledge.

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry I had to call you out like this, but it needed to be said. The good news is that there's a TON of information on this stuff for you to learn if you choose to. I think if you read up on some of that ICM theory and maybe try to do some calculations (by hand, not with SGA), your game will improve a lot

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I actually ran through several hand ICM calculations on this board earlier in the year with some help from others. I'm proficient with the calculations just not understanding the underlying assumptions that drive the model. But.... maybe if i thoroughly understood the underlying assumptions, the anomolies, and the practical application of the tool, I could then show why my intuition is right in this situation, and that that ICM cannot be applied, and that I was right all along, and glorious vindication!!! bwahahahahaha...i've got some work to do

[Chaostracize]

The BBs range for calling is huge. I don't care about reads. I fold this. Period. I want to make money. The difference between third and fourth is 100 bucks.

[Chaostracize]

As villain I am only calling with AA and KK... maybe QQ.

[KingDan]

[ QUOTE ]
At this level people do not understand that it is incorrect to call with AK. This is the reason you should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding AK 4 handed is not easy, and you cannot expect anyone at this level to do so.
This does not mean it is not a push, it just means you have to include it in their range. You can't assume that he will only call QQ, KK, and AA even, even if that is the best play.

[BadMongo]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't care about reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I want to make money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you may have a problem here. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't care about reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I want to make money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you may have a problem here. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I have to agree. If Villain can smartly lay down AT here, and SB isn't calling any 2, you push this if you want to make money. At a place where most understand gap concept, and people understand principles behind ICM, this is an autopush without reads.

[FlyWf]

This is one of the situations ICM gets wrong. Things like a 2BB stack being UTG tend to muck up the numbers, ICM will overrate the shorty's chances because it doesn't know that half his stack is going into the BB next hand.

Thing is, ICM understates how bad a call here is. It's a bad call at 50/100, it's grosteque at 250/500. You cannot call off your entire stack when you have a big stack and there are two tiny stacks, one of which is about to face the blinds. ICM probably likes a call with something like 99 there, I say QQ is a borderline call.

Excellent question. I thought about this myself not during the hand but later. I have been avoiding this play lately however as I just feel like such a donk when I do get raised but this may have been a good spot for it the stacks being the way they are. Pushing seems like the simpler play though.

Thanks for all the responses, FWIW after reading them all I think J-Lo's comment expresses my thoughts very well. BadMongo also made much sense to me. Gotta call people on statements along the lines of "well I know 2+2 is 4 but I don't think 5 is such a bad answer".