Peel one off or fold preflop?

[ekky]

Final 5 of the stars $20 hi/lo tourny... was cl then my AA45 got a bad flop and like a seasoned pro i cut my losses and capped it all the way to the river!!

My thinking on this is that I need some chips, and given a good flop, I can likely double up.

Read on the guy is that he has raised my BB every single time.


PokerStars Game #2538355116: Tournament #12088819, Omaha Hi/Lo Limit -
Level XV (6000/12000) - 2005/09/09 - 21:21:41 (ET)
Table '12088819 1' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: Spidurman (155272 in chips)
Seat 4: Mister Teeny (21902 in chips)
Seat 5: foxycoxy (14376 in chips)
Seat 6: GMAN09 (39670 in chips)
Seat 8: katyrix (25280 in chips)
Spidurman: posts small blind 3000
Mister Teeny: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mister Teeny [Th Kd Jh 8s]
foxycoxy: folds
GMAN09: folds
katyrix: folds
Spidurman: raises 6000 to 12000


I apologise if this is a bit simple, I am trying to get tourney strategy a bit more advanced... I would ask this in the MTT forum but those boys only play 2 card games.

thanks in advance

[Doc7]

if this is omaha8 as the forum suggests it would be, I fold this pre-flop no matter who is raising me, I think... you still have plenty of chips relative to everyone except CL to make your way back up to a much better finish by NOT playing this junk hand.

[Buzz]

Ekky - You have a crummy heads-up starting hand, but you're actually a slight favorite for high against a random hand. Including low in the bargain, you're only about a 5 to 6 overall underdog against a random hand.

The problem is Spidurman has about 60.5% of the chips in play while you only have about 8.5% of the chips in play.

The 6000 chips you put in the pot as your big blind post do not belong to you anymore. That's the key to figuring your odds here.

If you just call, you will have committed more than half of your chips. The most likely scenario is Spidurman will bet the flop, whatever it is. You won't know if Spidurman has a flop fit or not - but you probably won't have a much of a flop fit yourself. At that point, you'll have the choice of giving up the 12000 chips you have invested, calling another 6000 chips, or raising all-in. If Spidurman doesn't bet the flop and you do, I think you can assume Spidurman will check-raise you all-in. If you check behind Spidurman, I think you can assume that Spidurman will bet the turn and in that case you'll be all-in if you decide to call.

Thus if you just call, you should fully expect to be virtually forced all in either on the second betting round or the third betting round. Either that or you weakly fold to a bet or raise on the second or third betting round.

So think of this in terms of the roughly 16000 in chips you have left in front of you. If you commit the chips you have left you'll be getting roughly 28 to 16 implied pot odds. (The 6000 you've already posted as a blind, plus what Spidurman has to put in the pot to match all the chips you started the hand with is what you stand to win. Roughly you started the hand with 22000 chips, so 6000+22000 is what you have a 5 to 6 chance to win if you gamble the roughly 16000 chips you have left).

It may look to you as though you're getting 3 to 1 pot odds to call the raise and see the flop. However the 3 to 1 is very deceptive. What you're effectively getting, should you decide to continue play is about 28 to 16 implied pot odds (as explained, in the previous paragraph).

Meanwhile the odds against you winning the hand are confusing, because of the times you'll split the pot. But overall, I think they're only about 6 to 5 against you.

So the price is definitely right. You have a crummy starting hand, but the price is right for you to defend your blind.

But how best to defend it....

I think you come back over the top with a re-raise yourself. If Spidurman is on a steal, he might back off and fold. Not much of a chance of that, but I think an immediate counterpunch gives you the best chance for success.

At any rate, the foregoing is my reasoning. My conclusion is you come back over the top with an immediate re-raise.

Just my opinion.

Buzz