BASEBALL TALK - Yankees Vs. Mariners, Round 1.......

[Zeno]

Starting Tuesday this week a three game set in New Yawk. The Yanks are off to a phenomenal start at 20 and 5; the Mariners are a respectable 16 and 9 and lead the AL west by 1 game over Oakland. At 25 games into the season it is still early but players should be in rhythm and this will be a good test for the Mariners. Mariner hitting has picked up and the pitching is good but they are without Sasaki, the closer who is on the DL, and is having problems, blew 4 of 8 save opportunities. They used Jeff Nelson tonight - hope he gets revved up. Edgar is at 361 BA and OBP of 50% (really .494). So what if he has to crawl around the bases?

Mariners have more BB and SB than opponents and less Strikeouts and better hitting, but not the long ball – 12 less homers than opponents.

It will also be interesting to see the "match up" of Hideki Matsui and Ichiro Suzuki.

Game 1 is Meche/Clemens
Game 2 is Moyer/Petitte (sp?)
Game 3 ?/?


The Yanks do all the above and at better numbers, PLUS they pound the ball out of the park.

Jeter and Rivera still out but that matters little, Jambi will be the DH.


Will the Yanks sweep? They already have 48 homers and lead the league in all stats for batting. Can this behemoth be stopped at all?

My prediction:

Mariners will only win game 2 on wed, which will air on ESPN 2 so I get to watch it. However, don’t put any money on it. Should be a good game to watch.

The Sunday night game tonight was also great – 14 Inning Thriller – Red Sox over the Angels.

In addition, K. Millwood tossed a no-hitter. Baseball is Great!


We should introduce baseball to Iraq, if the Japanese can take to it, why not the Iraqi’s? /forums/images/icons/wink.gif


-Zeno

[andyfox]

Random thoughts:

-Nelson should be a good closer. He's tough and good. If the Yankees can go 20-5 with Juan Acevedo, surely the Mariners are in better shape.

-Edgar should make the HOF. I wonder if he will.

-Matsui is struggling. He doesn't look like half the ballplayer Ichiro is.

-Pettitte pitched poorly in Anaheim this week. I don't understand how Moyer gets anyone out, but obviously he does. BTW, anyone know of any other baseball players with two sets of the same double letters in their name?

-Giambi is swinging the bat very poorly. But Soriano and Williams are on fire. The only reason I can think of for the Yankees acquiring Todd Zeile is to make Robin Ventura look young. (Sort of like the only reason they have Don Zimmer: to make Joe Torre look handsome.)

-I know Atlanta has won 42 division titles in a row, but it would really be impressive if they did it again this year without Glavine and Millwood. Mike Hampton's going to have to show me for me to believe he can win again.

-Have you noticed any differences in the Mariners' play sans Lou?

[Zeno]

"-Edgar should make the HOF."

I agree of course. He is 40 I think and this will probably be his last year, though I hope not, his legs are giving out.

Nelson will have to pitch great to give the Mariners any chance for a win but that means the scores will have to be fairly low and close. Good Luck.

Moyer is great, his fastball is about 43 mph. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

Really it is his movement on the ball that is so good. He has, I think, 300 wins and his win percentage is right up there with Clemens. Hard to believe but I saw on stat on it not that long ago.

"-Have you noticed any differences in the Mariners' play sans Lou?"

My take is that the club as a whole is on a more steady, even keel. More patience ballclub also; Bob Melvin is doing a good job and once everyone gets settled in to his style, the Mariners will be a better team. But to do well in the AL west and have a chance to go into the playoffs - they need a little better pitching. Really, they need another lefty ace. Or else Garica needs to get out of the slump he has been in since the All Star break last year. OK enough.

-Zeno

[Dynasty]

-Matsui is struggling. He doesn't look like half the ballplayer Ichiro is.

Since last June, Ichiro hasn't looked like half the ballplayer we thought Ichiro was.

[Josh W]

On ESPN tonite, I was disheartened to hear that, when hyping this series, some announcer said that one reason why Ichiro is doing better than Matsui is because Ichiro has adjusted to the league. Of course, this is ridiculous, as his performance indicates the league is just now adjusting to him.

I believe game 3 is Piniero (dang sure) vs. Mussina (not too sure).

All three games will be good. The fact that Garcia is not pitching in this series, and likewise Sasaki, helps the Mariners somewhat. Their biggest weakness is that they give up too many longballs, specifically those two players. More innings out of Meche, Nelson, Rhodes, and Shiggy will only help the Mariners.

I'm probably the biggest Mariners fan alive, but I question Edgar in the Hall...but you should understand when I say that that I disagree with many hall selections, inasmuch as I think the bar should be higher.

I had the great fortune of being back in Seattle this weekend, and the even greater misfortune of being at Safeco Field on Saturday night (without a coat, which was truly stupid) to see the Detroit Tigers beat my beloved M's. Happy for Trammell, but, it hurt nonetheless.

I'm surprised nobody mentioned Posada yet. Torre has sworn to given Posada off 1 or 2 days per week, and he was off Sunday, so he'll likely play all three vs. the M's. Pettitte (I'm thinking he only has one set of TT in his last name) will help slow down the M's on the basepath with his balk (he doesn't even PRETEND to step towards first when he throws over there). The Yankees are better defensively without Jeter, although their losses in leadership and offense are tough to make up.

Yankees starting pitching has been emaculate so far (Petitte's loss the only blemish), but they've done that against substandard teams (Minnesota is the only possible exception).

Melvin needs to decide if he wants to go with the defense of cirillo at third, or the offense of McLemore. My choice would be defense first, because Mac is valuable off the bench, and he's getting close to being a liability at the hot corner.

To say that Ichiro isn't half we thought since june of last year is a huge overstatement...although his avg dropped to .280, his power increased dramatically. Yes, he has declined...by probably 15 to 20% (if quantifiable). But his defense hasn't lost anything (fewer highlight throws, because runners know it's better to plant themselves than test him). So half his game has lost a step.

But I agree...should be an awesome series. Not nearly as good as the 1995 divisional playoffs (best series ever), but still very good.

Josh

[IrishHand]

"-Edgar should make the HOF."

Edgar Martinez has been a fine player, but he shouldn't even be considered for the Hall.
-He played a total of 591 games in the field - that's less than 4 full seasons. I feel badly for the guy that his physical situation precluded playing defense as well as taking a turn at the plate, but over not having to play the field for the vast majority of his ~1800 career games certainly taints his offensive achievemnts. (Plus, the DH is an abomination in the abstract.)
-His career totals (.317, 1995 H, 275 HR, 1114 RBI) aren't nearly close enough to be Hallworthy despite his other detractors. Puckett's induction was an embarassment and even his numbers are better (.318, 2304 H, 207 HR, 1085 RBI, 134 SB) - plus, he was exciting, charismatic and a great defensive player.


"[Moyer] has, I think, 300 wins and his win percentage is right up there with Clemens."
I hope that was a joke. Moyer has all of 167 career wins with a 57% win pctg. Clemens has 297 wins with a 66% win pctg. Moyer is the definition of the average pitcher for his career - basically a mini-Frank Tanana in a pitcher's park.

Don't get me wrong - I grew up in the Northwest and went to many Mariners' games each year. However, their two great players (re. future HoFers) are now playing elsewhere. They have a great bunch of serviceable guys to go around an excellent (by conventional AL standards) pitching staff.

[andyfox]

"their two great players (re. future HoFers) are now playing elsewhere."

-Don't you mean their three great players?

[IrishHand]

Johnson's borderline - 225 wins isn't enough, although the ERA is passable and the Ks are outstanding.

[andyfox]

Interesting, I thought the third man was Griffey.

I think Johnson will be a first ballot electee. The Cy Young awards and the (eventually) 4,000 Ks will get him in.

BTW, do you think Joe Torre will get in? My sense is he will when they combine his career as a player (very good player, but not HOF caliber) with his managerial career.

[Zeno]

"[Moyer] has, I think, 300 wins and his win percentage is right up there with Clemens."
I hope that was a joke. Moyer has all of 167 career wins with a 57% win pctg. Clemens has 297 wins with a 66% win pctg. Moyer is the definition of the average pitcher for his career - basically a mini-Frank Tanana in a pitcher's park."

You didn't believe me when I compared Moyer to Clemens? /forums/images/icons/shocked.gif Couldn't blow it by you could I. /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif You Statmongers are a pain. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

-Zeno

[IrishHand]

Griffey is one decent year from 500 HR, and despite the last trio of years, he will in all likelihood play at least another 3+ full seasons. That would push him over 600 making it a no-brainer. If his injuries were of the chronic type, I'd be concerned, but he keeps finding new ways to get injured - he'll be fine soon.

Johnson will be an interesting case. I wouldn't vote for him, but then I'm more conservative than most voters. It might depend somewhat on what happens the next couple years, but you could be right.

I suspect that Torre will probably get in as a manager as a result of the 1996-present Yankees run of dominance combined with average performance before then (77-95).

[Glenn]

"Johnson's borderline - 225 wins isn't enough, although the ERA is passable and the Ks are outstanding. "

Are you joking? Johnson is the second best left-handed pitcher in the history of baseball. If that's not good enough, I don't know what is. If he doesn't get in you have to take out Koufax and Ford.

[Josh W]

While I agree (as stated below) that I don't think Edgar shouldn't be in the Hall (the bar should be higher, across the board, IMO), your comparison is misleading:


>>His career totals (.317, 1995 H, 275 HR, 1114 RBI) aren't nearly close enough to be Hallworthy despite his other detractors. Puckett's induction was an embarassment and even his numbers are better (.318, 2304 H, 207 HR, 1085 RBI, 134 SB) - plus, he was exciting, charismatic and a great defensive player.

Nearly every point you bring up is wrong. I'm assuming you'd agree that the best way of judging a hitter is by looking at OPS...Puckett's was .835, Edgar's is .953. Not even close. Puckett did steal 86 more bases in his career, but SB's are nearly meaningless in a teams performance (Or TB would be better this year).

Defensive difference is huge.

And, if you have been in Seattle in the last 6 years (since Griffey developed an attitude), you'd know that Edgar is the most popular Mariner EVER (with the possible exception of Alvin Davis). He may not have 100% the charisma of Puckett, but he's got at least 95% as much. He won't get the sympathy votes that Puckett got, though, that's for sure. If he was healthier.....well, let's not play the what if game, even though voters did with Kirby.

As for Moyer...you make me laugh. How many pitchers have a career winning percentage of 57% or higher? Maybe 20% of pitchers? MAYBE. Somehow this makes him "the definition of the average pitcher for his career".

In truth, though, Moyer's winning percentage while in Seattle is 67.3% (101-49). And by "pitcher's park", I'm sure you meant "hitter's park", since Safeco is smaller than the avg. AL park, and has been hitter friendly since it's conception (compared to AL parks). Before Safeco, Moyer pitched in the Kingdome with a .703 win percentage...and please please please don't say the Kingdome was a pitcher's park. It was the antithesis.

Johnson is a first ballot hall of famer, guaranteed. He'll retire probably (assuming he comes back from this injury) #2 all time in K's, with a win percentage of .68 (assuming he holds his current average, which, even with an anticipated decline from his last few years, he should be able to do pretty easily).

But other than that, we agree.

Josh

[IrishHand]

I'm assuming you'd agree that the best way of judging a hitter is by looking at OPS
You assume too much. I consider OPS to be a grossly overrated stat. Baseball simply isn't a game where you can look at any one stat and know much of anything. When I'm comparing players, I look across the line - from G to OBA (on a "typical" stat line for a hitter). OPS is about as valuable in my mind as these sites that try to rate basketball players with points formulas (often a total of PPG, RPG and APG). I'm not interested in efficiency...I want accuracy.

Puckett did steal 86 more bases in his career, but SB's are nearly meaningless in a teams performance
I completely disagree. While we're certainly in the midst of an era where SBs are being de-emphasized, I have faith they'll come back as the game continues to oscillate as it has for the past 100 years between different trends and emphases. For example, I consider Rickey Henderson an infinitely more valuable player than either Edgar or Puckett (or most other players I can think of offhand).

I realize how popular Edgar is in the Seattle area. So what? Puckett was a big deal wherever he went - people just loved to watch the bubbly little bowling ball. Edgar on the road is about as big a draw as Ben Davis. Regardless of his popularity or lack thereof, he's not even in the HoF ballpark, so it's not an issue.

And sorry - should have said that Moyer was "the definition of the moderately above-average pitcher for his career". I stand corrected. He's still a middle of the rotation starter for his career no matter how you slice it. Like every other pitcher of his ilk, he's had a couple of outstanding years interspersed with the average (or above-average) ones. If the Mariners make some noise in the playoffs, it will be because Garcia and/or Pineiro decided to behave like aces.

FYI - although it's not a big deal for the purposes of this discussion, I don't like to leave completely ignorant statments hanging out there for others to read...Safeco's size is irrelevant. Coors field is the biggest park in the majors by a large margin and is still the best hitter's park by an equally large margin. If you want actual facts, here are the numbers from 2000-2002, courtesy of The Sporting News:

Top Hitter's Parks in ML (% effect on total runs relative to the ML average)
Colorado +50%
Kansas City +18%
Houston +14%
Arizona +14%

Top Pitcher's Parks in ML
Los Angeles -18%
San Francisco -17% (2001-2002 only)
Seattle -14% (2001-2002 only)
Detroit -12% (2001-2002, before they moved the fences in this year)

So yes - not only is Safeco a pitcher's park - it the best pitcher's park in the entire AL. (For the curious, the "neutral" parks which have no aggregate effect on runs scored are Yankee Stadium, Fenway and Tropicana Field in TB.)

[andyfox]

"I consider Rickey Henderson an infinitely more valuable player than either Edgar or Puckett"

No Doubt. Rickey was a much greater player than either. But not because of his stolen bases. Because of his OPS. Now Rickey is unusual in that he stole tons of bases, so that his stolen base totals did contribute to his value. But 86 more stolen bases in a career is not significant to a ballplayer's value.

[andyfox]

"Mariners will only win game 2 on wed"

Two for two thus far. Who do you like tonight?

/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

With love,
Andy

[bernie]

it's a good series because it's a rivalry of sorts.

the mariners likely wont make the playoffs and definitely wont make the world series. though they will probably have a winning season. barely. theyll be just as involved in trades after the all-star break as they were last year...(one reason lou left)

the couple series with the yanks is pretty much their playoff.

just some thoughts

b