Hand Reading made the River Bet Easy

[QTip]

He's 13/6.5/1.5 and plays fairly straight forward

Just thought it might be fun for some...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>,

I like it...perfectly played IMO. I think the other player has a medium holding like TT or lower. QQ would have reraised the flop and AK likely would have done something on the turn. I'm not sure if he called you, but a bet is +EV here IMO.

Lozing

[Cumulonimbus]

Hell yeah? I don't see any reason to do otherwise. Am I missing something?

[W. Deranged]

It is unlikely the K helped villain since he would not likely bet out overcards on the flop or just check-call once the K hit.

Villain is not that likely to have AA here because of the flop and pre-flop action. QQ is a possibility though most players would give a little more action with it; passives though will often not get that deep here fearing AA or KK.

Villain is extremely unlikely to have two pair (pre-flop raise) or a set (would've gotten more action at some point).

Flush is unlikely since only real possibilities would be nut combos A /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif or A /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif; either would've given you more action by this point.


I think TT is probably the most likely hand villain could be holding, followed by QQ, 88, and A9s. The last two a bit less likely because a player with those stats often will not be raising those hands.

Betting here is for value and for the outside possibility of maybe folding out QQ.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it...perfectly played IMO. I think the other player has a medium holding like TT or lower. QQ would have reraised the flop and AK likely would have done something on the turn. I'm not sure if he called you, but a bet is +EV here IMO.

Lozing

[/ QUOTE ]

From the kind of player described, I'm actually expecting to see TT here damn near 50% of the time.

[Octopus]

My best read: He has QQ or something and was planning to pop you on the turn, but the flush/king scared him and he decided to call down. Or he has AK and again, the flush scares him and he is calling down. Or he has A/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ and will fold to your river bet.

In any case, it is not clear to me that this is an easy river bet. But, as we know, I am a wimp on the river. Enlighten me. TT is thie only reasonable hand that we like that will play like this; are you that sure he has it?

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
My best read: He has QQ or something and was planning to pop you on the turn, but the flush/king scared him and he decided to call down. Or he has AK and again, the flush scares him and he is calling down. Or he has A/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ and will fold to your river bet.

In any case, it is not clear to me that this is an easy river bet. But, as we know, I am a wimp on the river. Enlighten me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt a villain with that profile bet out the flop with overcards and a backdoor flush draw.

A bet on the flop from a tight passive here indicates a pair very often. I think it's more likely to be a pair we beat (TT or possibly 88) than one we're beat by (QQ is about the only real option), hence we find a bet.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like it...perfectly played IMO. I think the other player has a medium holding like TT or lower. QQ would have reraised the flop and AK likely would have done something on the turn. I'm not sure if he called you, but a bet is +EV here IMO.

Lozing

[/ QUOTE ]

From the kind of player described, I'm actually expecting to see TT here damn near 50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking at least 85% or the time TT or a chop or something out character the other 15%.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Just thought it might be fun for some...

[/ QUOTE ]

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like it...perfectly played IMO. I think the other player has a medium holding like TT or lower. QQ would have reraised the flop and AK likely would have done something on the turn. I'm not sure if he called you, but a bet is +EV here IMO.

Lozing

[/ QUOTE ]

From the kind of player described, I'm actually expecting to see TT here damn near 50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking at least 85% or the time TT or a chop or something out character the other 15%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice hand, QT. I really, really enjoy hands where it's possible to put villain on a very tiny range of hands and to bet accordingly.

This is actually kind of a nice exercise in hand reading. TT is very much the most likely hand but I'm not sure everyone here would've gotten that.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
A bet on the flop from a tight passive here indicates a pair very often. I think it's more likely to be a pair we beat (TT or possibly 88)

I doubt a villain with that profile bet out the flop with overcards and a backdoor flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. I doubt he has eights though. Say his hands are QQ, JJ or TT 90+% of the time and AK or AQ with a spade the rest. If so, then it depends on the probability he will fold QQ (low) or JJ (almost as low) versus the probability he has AK (probably not as low). I guess the bet has value, but it is not clear to me that it has a lot. (If he'll cap with queens then the value goes up, obviously, but it is not clear that he does.)

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A bet on the flop from a tight passive here indicates a pair very often. I think it's more likely to be a pair we beat (TT or possibly 88)

I doubt a villain with that profile bet out the flop with overcards and a backdoor flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. I doubt he has eights though. Say his hands are QQ, JJ or TT 90+% of the time and AK or AQ with a spade the rest. If so, then it depends on the probability he will fold QQ (low) or JJ (almost as low) versus the probability he has AK (probably not as low). I guess the bet has value, but it is not clear to me that it has a lot. (If he'll cap with queens then the value goes up, obviously, but it is not clear that he does.)

[/ QUOTE ]

88 is probably not that likely, and we can basically dismiss JJ not only because it's unlikely but because it's going to be a chop anyway.

The basic point is this: which hand is villain more likely to play the way he did: QQ or TT? This line is quite consistent with the way a lot of players will play TT, but not how they'll play QQ. QQ would likely have either capped pre-flop, or three-bet or check-raised the flop.

I think AK/AQ type hands are quite unlikely because AK give more turn action and neither are that likely to lead this flop (given our opponent is quite tight-passive).

[Rico Suave]

W. Deranged:

[ QUOTE ]
The basic point is this: which hand is villain more likely to play the way he did: QQ or TT? This line is quite consistent with the way a lot of players will play TT, but not how they'll play QQ. QQ would likely have either capped pre-flop, or three-bet or check-raised the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I don't think it likely that QQ gets capped preflop or QQ gets 3-bet on the flop from a guy with those stats. I would say it is pretty close between QQ or TT (maybe JJ) with TT being a mild favorite.

I really added nothing to this thread.

--Rico

[krimson]

Anything that has you beat is going to play back at the turn I think. Easy river bet.

I think the obvious reads would be TT, JJ, QQ. I also think some others are a possibility such as AsQx or something. His flop bet might have been testing whether you have an overpair, then picked up the flush draw on the turn.

[QTip]

I get an almost overwhelming to desire to type "You're TT isn't any good". It's just so fun...but I restrained myself.

Once in a live game, I raised EP, and UTG+2 sat there for a while. He was pretty tight, and I'd see him 3 bet QQ...he just didn't have a firm grasp of the PF game. Anyway, after a minute, he cold called (which was a 1st as well). I was pretty certain he had JJ and figured if he raised undercards and the flop, that would be his hand.

Anyway, the BB calls and the flop comes down 559r.

BB checks, I bet as a result of my civic duty, he raises

BB calls 2 cold, I fold.

Turn is a rag, BB c/res and this guy just sits there thinking. So...I lean over to him and say "He's got a 5, you can fold your jacks now."

He almost fell out of his chair.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
My best read: He has QQ or something and was planning to pop you on the turn, but the flush/king scared him and he decided to call down. Or he has AK and again, the flush scares him and he is calling down. Or he has A/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ and will fold to your river bet.

In any case, it is not clear to me that this is an easy river bet. But, as we know, I am a wimp on the river. Enlighten me. TT is thie only reasonable hand that we like that will play like this; are you that sure he has it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really felt he would have capped me PF with QQ...you wouldn't have known that though...

AK he doesn't lead the flop.

[thejameser]

nh, mr. tip.

[lu_hawk]

this river bet is easy without hand reading.

[callmedonnie]

So, say we are villain and have tens in this pot. You fold turn because you put Q on are either overpairs or AK? I guess AQ might be in range, Q will have to tell us. Against this villain perhaps because he seems a bit weak, that an extra small bet pf might be worth investing if we think we can use that as credibility.

The only reason I mention this is that while reading this thread it seemed that the general opinion is that his hand is quite lucid. But who would have played it otherwise?

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
this river bet is easy without hand reading.

[/ QUOTE ]

Every poker play, particularly on the river, involves some degree of hand reading. Maybe you don't need to put villain exactly on TT here to make a river value bet, but you are doing some hand-reading by simply deducing that villain is likely to have a worse hand.

This is all semantics, though... and hand-reading is fun...

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
So, say we are villain and have tens in this pot. You fold turn because you put Q on are either overpairs or AK? I guess AQ might be in range, Q will have to tell us. Against this villain perhaps because he seems a bit weak, that an extra small bet pf might be worth investing if we think we can use that as credibility.

The only reason I mention this is that while reading this thread it seemed that the general opinion is that his hand is quite lucid. But who would have played it otherwise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely don't play my hand like villain does.

Out of position with TT on that flop, I'm probably check-raising the flop. If I'm three-bet it becomes a very easy check-fold on the turn once the K and the spade hit. If I'm not three-bet I'm leading the turn and probably folding to a raise.

[alul]

I play this hand the same way. It does not really matter what the villian has, what matters is he did not raise on the turn (either because he has a pair smaller than yours or because he is scared of flush). Unless he is really tricky, he will not raise the river, so you can safely bet (since if you check and he bets you will call anyway).