Unimproved aces, anyone value bet?

[Bartholow]

Opponent was at least somewhat loose. For some reason I want to value bet this river, is that nuts?

7 Card Stud High ($20/$40), Ante $2, Bring-In $5 (hand converter (http://www.geocities.com/greenage22/7StudConverter.hta.txt))

3rd Street - (0.80 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 2: xx xx T/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 3: xx xx K/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/club.gif___brings-in___calls
Seat 7: xx xx A/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls___folds
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif___completes

4th Street - (3.05 SB)

Seat 6: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets

5th Street - (2.53 BB)

Seat 6: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif___bets

6th Street - (4.53 BB)

Seat 6: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks___calls
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets

River - (6.53 BB)

Seat 6: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif xx___checks
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ??

[jon_1van]

I routinely value bet when I open the action. But I won't reopen the action to my opponent to make such a thin Vbet

[Jeffage]

I would bet. Since your aces were buried, your opponent might think you have a lower pair that he beats. Plus you won't be raised with two pair. If he made a flush he probably bets 7th...if you get checkraised, fold. I bet though b/c if he missed a draw and hit a pair he may keep you honest cause the pot's big.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

Why is it thin? Your opponent has done nothing but check and call. Most people would bet out if they made their hand here, so when you bet he will fold a missed draw but possibly call with a pair that beats your door card (either one he had all along or one he made in pursuit of a draw). If you are checkraised on the end, you simply fold.

Jeff

[BeerMoney]

I'd bet.

So you should probably check.

[Roland]

I’d check.

So you should probably bet.

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are checkraised on the end, you simply fold.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

I would hate to do this though. Although the checkraise river bluff does seem rare. Are plays like these what's hurting my win rate? (River folds.)

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are checkraised on the end, you simply fold.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

I would hate to do this though. Although the checkraise river bluff does seem rare. Are plays like these what's hurting my win rate? (River folds.)

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Do you really think he will bluff-check-raise you 9% of the time or whatever it has to be? I think significantly less than that.

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are checkraised on the end, you simply fold.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

I would hate to do this though. Although the checkraise river bluff does seem rare. Are plays like these what's hurting my win rate? (River folds.)

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Do you really think he will bluff-check-raise you 9% of the time or whatever it has to be? I think significantly less than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

So your answer is yes then?

[bygmesterf]

[ QUOTE ]
I routinely value bet when I open the action. But I won't reopen the action to my opponent to make such a thin Vbet

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with that. Bets you save spend just as well as bets you earn. Also his board shows all sorts of potential draws, which suggests that he doesn't hold a payoff hand of an unimproved big pair.

Chances are you will be called by small 2 pair, or else C/r by a complete hand.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is it thin?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the hero raised on 3rd into several unduplicated high cards I would put the hero on a big PP at minimum. I don't think the pot is big enough that someone would feel like they got seriously outplayed if they fold something like 7s here. So I don't think there is much value in getting a hand you beat to call.

I also think our hero might check-call a small 2 pair because he probably puts you on a big PP and he hasn't seen you improve. So I don't want to throw money at this hand. I admit what you said about someone betting this hand out is possible, but people play crap 2 pair differently.

And the main reason I check behind here is because if I was on the 4 flush and I made it on the river I'd insta-check raise here (in the opponents seat). I know I go for the cr too often though. But because its what I'd do, I worry about getting check raised perhaps more than I should.

Pulling some number out of my....bum, I'd guess that you are gonna get checkraised at least as often as your gonna get a crying call from a hand you beat.

[Jeffage]

Ok, I don't have time for the long explanation right now, but....

1) If your opponent has two pair, he will check call and you will lose one bet. He will not checkraise.

2) If your opponent has one pair, he may call because of the size of the pot, esp. if it's a pair that beats your door card. Many people will pay off without a second thought here so the bet has value.

3) Most opponents will NOT checkraise the river with a made hand like a flush b/c they know people dog it on the river and they want their sure bet. You are not most opponents. When he checks, it is very likely he doesn't have the flush but he may have a hand he calls with that you beat. When a typical opponent checks here, he is MUCH more likely to have a calling hand or a missed draw he plans to fold then a monster. Thus, I will place a bet and see what it collects.

Just my opinion...I think a bet has some value though checking behind isn't horrendous by any means.

Jeff

[grb137]

In my opinion, value plays are only really worth their while when you are know your player well.

I don't value bet unimproved pairs unless I've seen the player call with an unimproved pair.