General pot odds question

[Raemius]

I hold A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 10/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Flop Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif

There are 9 cards that will make me the nut flush, there is about a 20% chance of me making the nut flush by the river. Assuming there is $400 in the pot, what is the largest bet I should be calling?

I think I definitely call anything <$100

Do I call $100, $125, $150?

I'm thinking even with implied odds, anything above $125 is -EV

Am I correct here?

I have problems seeing odds as a:b and tend to automatically think percentages, that's why I'm asking.

[LetYouDown]

[ QUOTE ]
There are 9 cards that will make me the nut flush, there is about a 20% chance of me making the nut flush by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
No.

And...this isn't limit. Implied odds are very important. If you are facing an all in bet, you need just under 2 to 1, assuming if you catch your flush you will be good no matter what, and your Ace isn't live.

[Luzion]

[ QUOTE ]
I hold A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 10/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Flop Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif

There are 9 cards that will make me the nut flush, there is about a 20% chance of me making the nut flush by the river. Assuming there is $400 in the pot, what is the largest bet I should be calling?

I think I definitely call anything <$100

Do I call $100, $125, $150?

I'm thinking even with implied odds, anything above $125 is -EV

Am I correct here?

I have problems seeing odds as a:b and tend to automatically think percentages, that's why I'm asking.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you will make the flush about 35% from the flop to the river. Thats two cards. If you are calling on bet to see the turn then you have to factor just that one card.

If you are only counting your 9 outs, then your odds are about 1:4.2, probability being about 19% you will catch the flush on the turn. You can definitely call any bet that is less then $95 with a pot this large and be profitable with no implied odds.

For bets bigger then $95, you will have to figure out what your implied odds are and continue from there.

[Mr. Curious]

EDIT: Oops, I thought this was on the turn.

Depends on whether or not your A is an out and if the guy will pay you off if the flush card hits.

There are 47 cards left - 9 spades (provided villian does not hold any) = 38:9 the odds of hitting the flush on the river.

That reduces to 4.2:1.

With $400 in the pot and Villian folding to a flush card, then you can call no higher than $125 bet.

If Villian will pay you off on your flush, then all you need is for him to bet an amount that gives you the implied odds to win. So if Villian bets $300, he needs roughly $700 left in his stack and the willingness to part with it. More likely Villian might bet $250, in which case you will be getting 2.5:1 on your draw and provided you hit your flush, Villian needs to call about a $300 value bet to make it +EV.

There are other angles to consider as well since the 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif can make a boat and if your A/images/graemlins/spade.gif is clean you have another 3 outs.

btw - Never call an all-in on a flush draw without pot odds. I know that is not what you are asking, but I have been seeing a lot of people doing it lately and they are losing a lot of long term money by doing so.

[LetYouDown]

If your opponent bets $400 (all in) and it's back to you, and you know that if you catch the flush you win, if you don't, you lose...you're right to call. Luzion's numbers seem accurate.

[Raemius]

Wow, was my math ever off. Thanks guys. I've been completely forgetting there are 2 cards to come duh!