Standard Top Set(66) Party 2/4

[AceHiStation]

I have a very aggressive image, but it doesn't matter at this table because villain had just sat down and I ended up only having 22 hands on him at the end of this session. Easy decision to move it all in on the flop? Am I going to force big draws/two pair/overpairs to fold with a play like this? Curious how everyone else plays this hand.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button ($556.55)
SB ($175.40)
BB ($330.10)
Hero ($700.70)
MP1 ($554.30)
MP2 ($458.10)
CO ($383.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $2.
Hero calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($14) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $18</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $50</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $150</font>, Hero ???

[maranello11]

could he not have 45 here? With all that raising it looks like a smaller set or the straight, the re-raises dont make sense for 2 pair or even a flush draw or over pair, for they would just call your re-raise to 50.

I doubt that he has two pair given the board, obviously the straight is possible but I don't think that you're worried about that and neither am I (at least not without any info on player). If 2 pair is out of the question, then he probably has 77-TT (assuming any bigger pair would have raised prelop), a set or a big draw. Given that he would be scared by many turn cards if he has a mid-overpair, and if he has a draw hes not going anywhere, I'd say a push here is optimal.

[maranello11]

I just dont see 1010 here or and over pair for that matter, I know there are bad players on this site but all these re-raises is screaming a set or straight, either way I say push.

[tagtastic]

You're up against another set, a straight, a big draw (A2c-A5c) or a horribly played overpair (this line is not that uncommon for JJ-AA on Party I'm happy to say).

You're beating 3 out of these 4 situations pretty badly (he's 30% at best) and if he has the straight, you're still 35% to win (30% if he has the best possible here, 4c5c).

The 3 out of 4 things you're beating can definitely outdraw you, therefore pushing is your only move. I wouldn't be surprised to see 45s more likely than any other hand here, however I still think this push is definitely +EV.

[ahnuld]

DO IT

I started to say that OOP, you must push this...

but I can see a case for calling. If he has a lower set and you smooth-call/check, he will push the turn (if its a non-club). If you re-raise all-in on flop and he has 22, he might lay-down -- (but I doubt most players would).

given his betting pattern, I just don't think he has 2 clubs, unless its 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif... 2-pair seems unlikely given the board cards...

so how often will he lay-down a set here after already putting that much money in? Net net, I see an argument for calling if he has an overpair or a smaller set and will push the turn... but too many cards might kill that action...

net net, he has 77-99, a small set or 54... most of the time he won't get away from his set if you push here so push in case a club comes on turn and just suckout vs 54...

[The Bear]

I probably push because I don't expect him to fold, but I don't think it's necessarily bad to wait. After putting half his stack in on the flop I don't see how this guy can fold the turn/river if you bleed him one street at a time, regardless of the action killers that come off.

Also, I definitely raise PF.

The Bear

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
The 3 out of 4 things you're beating can definitely outdraw you, therefore pushing is your only move.

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't make any sense to me.

[Heimdal]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I definitely raise PF.



[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this? Game is 7-handed. You dont want anyone else to take control of the hand or...?

It's just not fun to get 3 callers (unless you flop a set). And if someone makes a big reraise, you should probably fold when you could have limped in, called a standard raise and flopped a set.

[Marlow]

If I'm feeling frisky, I'll minraise sometimes because the stacks are relatively short (read: pot commited) and he could have something that he might lay down to a push. The minraise is basically the same thing as a push here, but it's just more enticing for him to call.

Obviously, the idea would then be to get the rest in on the turn.

Oh, and if he's flopped the str8, so be it. I double him up no matter what line I take.

Interested in the results...

Best,
Marlow

[Imperial]

I put him on 45 and move all in.... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[AceHiStation]

[ QUOTE ]
I put him on 45 and move all in.... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly my play. I wasn't in the mood to fold top set so I put all the money in there and he called. Villain showed 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif for the nut straight, i went unimproved and he took down a monster. I tried to avoid hinting towards the fact that he had the straight to try and get better responses. Does anyone "get away" from this hand? I think in the long run "getting away" is -EV and putting it all in there is the only choice. Anyone disagree?

[ryanghall]

You simply do not get away from this hand.

That would be stupid.

You're very likely well ahead of someone. There's a small chance you're moderately behind.

Ryan

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I definitely raise PF.



[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this? Game is 7-handed. You dont want anyone else to take control of the hand or...?

It's just not fun to get 3 callers (unless you flop a set). And if someone makes a big reraise, you should probably fold when you could have limped in, called a standard raise and flopped a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like playing raised pots when I have a pair. I also like having iniative in raised pots.

As for your suggestion of limping and calling a raise, hoping to flop a set, I think this is a classic case of NL players vastly overestimating their implied odds out of position. When most players do that, it narrows their hand range so much (basically to pairs) that any semi-competent player will destroy them in position. I absolutely love it when players do this against me. It's a huge chip-burner for them, since they're check-folding the vast majority of flops and they don't make much money when they flop big.

There are some NL games where I might prefer to limp w/ a small pair up front, but a 7-handed Party 400 is definitely not one of them.

[maranello11]

We know he has the straight when he re-raises to 150. But it is tought to lay down a set and you are looking to fill up. You knew he had it when you put your money in!

[Marlow]

[ QUOTE ]
We know he has the straight when he re-raises to 150. But it is tought to lay down a set and you are looking to fill up. You knew he had it when you put your money in!

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that there's any way to know what CO has. As CO, I do the same thing here with undersets or (sometimes) with a hand like Ac2c or Ac5c.

I used to always think my opponent had "it." Not only was that very stressful, but it made it tough to win on a consistant basis (because it was frightfully weak-tight).

Just my $0.02

Marlow