stud 8 sat final table hand

[Aicirt]

Final table of the tourney. 5 players left, 3 make the WCOOP event, I have the chip lead. It had been 5 handed for quite some time. Most everyone was playing really tight because the stacks were really deep for the stakes because of this being a rebuy tournament.

Seat 2 easilly could be raising with junk in the hole. Every A door was being raised and was taking down the antes. So Im not totally sure if I give him credit for a hand or not.

Hows my line? Check/call the river?



Tournament - 7 Card Stud High-Low - Level XV (4,000/8,000), Ante 500, Bring-In 1,000 (hand converter (http://www.geocities.com/greenage22/7StudConverter.hta.txt))

Seat 1: 80,252
Seat 2: 47,128
Hero: 98,371
Seat 5: 53,926
Seat 8: 14,323

3rd Street - (0.63 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 2: xx xx A/images/graemlins/club.gif___raises
Hero: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls
Seat 5: xx xx T/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif___brings-in___folds

4th Street - (2.88 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx A/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif___bets___calls
Hero: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif___raises

5th Street - (3.44 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx A/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls
Hero: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets

6th Street - (5.44 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx A/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls
Hero: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif___bets

River - (7.44 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx A/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif xx___calls
Hero: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif___bets

Total pot: 9.44 BB


Aicirt

[jon_1van]

I absolutely HATE playing this hand.

I see no reason to play this hand in a satellite. Espically against someone who can put a serious dent in your stack.

[DeadMoneyOC]

[ QUOTE ]
I absolutely HATE playing this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

HI LO homie /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[kschellenger]

I think it's ok until the river. I'd check/call.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I absolutely HATE playing this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

HI LO homie /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't care that this is hi-lo. This is a satellite. You are chipleader. You opponent can cripple you. You can only play hands in that situation with MONSTER edges. And you do not have a MONSTER edge here.


The reason you let this hand go is all about tournement strategy, nothing else.

[DeadMoneyOC]

[ QUOTE ]
You are chipleader.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not by that much and there was still a lot of play left in this tournament.

[ QUOTE ]
You opponent can cripple you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or you could cripple him with a premium hand like 345

[ QUOTE ]
You can only play hands in that situation with MONSTER edges. And you do not have a MONSTER edge here.


[/ QUOTE ]

345 is one of the best starting hands there is. Folding here would be a crime. Especially against an opponent who you can cripple and almost take out of the game. Someone has to do the dirty work in these things you know. Otherwise the short stacks would just steal the antes all day while you wait for rolled aces.

[bygmesterf]

[ QUOTE ]
I absolutely HATE playing this hand.

I see no reason to play this hand in a satellite. Espically against someone who can put a serious dent in your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's five handed, if you aren't going to play 345 what are you going to play? 345 and similar premium hands are what you play aginst people who raise with aces.

There is a good argument for folding everything as this is a satellite. OTH, the limits are high, and you sit and wait the antes will destroy you. I think trying to coast is bad idea in tournaments with ante's.

On to play of the hand.

5th, I would check and call. Too much risk of getting raised. A wheel draw is is in ok shape if he has a made 8.

6th. Standard.

7th. check/call. He is only gonna call you if he can beat aces or get a split, so this bet will lose money. Sometimes he's gonna raise you because some players like to make "free" raises with the low to spook out the high hand. So you have to call. At best on 7th you get your money back, or you lose two bets, by betting out.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
345 is one of the best starting hands there is

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't care.

[ QUOTE ]
Folding here would be a crime

[/ QUOTE ]
This is wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
Especially against an opponent who you can cripple and almost take out of the game

[/ QUOTE ]
You have him covered, he has ~4BB. If he plays he will most likely go all-in.


[ QUOTE ]
Someone has to do the dirty work in these things you know

[/ QUOTE ]
And when you are chipleader in a sat' you don't have to take any risk. So why volunteer for a big risk?

[ QUOTE ]
Otherwise the short stacks would just steal the antes all day while you wait for rolled aces.

[/ QUOTE ]
I never said you wouldn't be stealing like a fiend on most other hands. You opponent is not a "short stack"




When the guy with around 4 BB raises he could be very willing to commit himself to the hand (he did just put in a 1/8th of his stack). Considering the commitment our opponent probably has to this hand we should operate on the assumption that our opponent will get his stack in over the course of the hand.

Therefore we should expect 1 of 3 things at the end of this tourney
-We split and make a couple hundred in antes
-We win and are 1 step closer to a seat (not a super big improvement because those extra chips we gained aren't too significant...although knocking someone out is nice)
-We lose and are now forced to run further risks to accumulate chips and knock out others. The risks that will be required from this point could have been avoid altogether.

The ONLY way to play this hand is to raise 3rd and hope our opponent folds. We should avoid a big pot AT ALL COSTS. And because our opponent should do the same thing (if he doesn't hold a super premium hand) we should give him an opportunity to fold.


Why not wait for the tiny stack to bust?
And then why not wait for the 2 remaining small stacks to go to war?

And in the meantime steal antes like it's your job.

[jon_1van]

345 just isn't that good heads up against and Ac.

Every real hand your opponent could have is about a coin flip. Why coin flip for 1/2 your stack against someguy who isn't gonna mess with you without the goods?

The only play you can make is to raise and hope the guy was on a steal.

Again, I don't advise folding everything. I wouldn't fold this against the tiny stack. I just can't agree with playing a big stack IN A SAT with a slim to non-existant edge. There is just no reason for it.

[benneh]

at this point in the sat i probably sit out and go make dinner. you've got your seat, why bother? Let the smaller stacks fight over it. it's not like they're gona ante you out.

[Bartholow]

In a "super-satellite" like this, I wouldn't play this hand on 3rd. You don't need to increase your stack, you need to outlast people or bust them.

If I did play, I would be reraising right away in hopes that your opponent also understands that you should both be avoiding confrontation, and so folds his steal hand. It's also tempting to check 5th, given the way the cards fell it's unlikely that he'll fold here but he might check along.

[Bartholow]

As far as "trying to coast", there is some truth to that, but you'd rather whittle people away by stealing more than your fair share and occasionally having the goods than by playing against an ace.

[Bartholow]

Jon and I are 100% on the same page here.

[DeadMoneyOC]

No. Here is why...

[ QUOTE ]
You have him covered, he has ~4BB. If he plays he will most likely go all-in.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thats the idea

[ QUOTE ]
And when you are chipleader in a sat' you don't have to take any risk. So why volunteer for a big risk?


[/ QUOTE ]

Its not quite like the OP had the rest of the table covered by that many BBs. If the OP had 200K and everyone else had 25K I would agree but this clearly not the case. The one guy who is sitting on 14K is in very bad shape but other than him everyone else has some room to manuver. Our hero doesnt need to make a move, but if an amazing oppurtunity arises where he has the chance to nearly bust some guy then he should obviously take it. You clearly dont think that this is an amazing opportunity but you have to look at from this perspective. Hero is risking 4K on 3rd and 8K on 4th to make a hand and bust/cripple this other guy. He could even afford to lose another 8K on 5th if he missed.

[ QUOTE ]
When the guy with around 4 BB raises he could be very willing to commit himself to the hand (he did just put in a 1/8th of his stack). Considering the commitment our opponent probably has to this hand we should operate on the assumption that our opponent will get his stack in over the course of the hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is not totally true. This guy could haave had 9T in the hole for all we know and could have been on a complete steal and would have folded to a re-raise on 4th. Like I said...his stack was big enough where he had room to manuver.

[ QUOTE ]


Therefore we should expect 1 of 3 things at the end of this tourney
-We split and make a couple hundred in antes
-We win and are 1 step closer to a seat (not a super big improvement because those extra chips we gained aren't too significant...although knocking someone out is nice)
-We lose and are now forced to run further risks to accumulate chips and knock out others. The risks that will be required from this point could have been avoid altogether.


[/ QUOTE ]

1. Very true
2. If we scoop the hand then there is only one person left in the tournament who needs to go and they only have 14K(Or two people who almost no chips). Hero would never not qualify for the WCOOP in this situation.
3. Losing 20K is not the end of the world in situaiton. It certainly wouldnt be ideal, but it certainly isnt tragic/tournament ending.

[ QUOTE ]
The ONLY way to play this hand is to raise 3rd and hope our opponent folds. We should avoid a big pot AT ALL COSTS. And because our opponent should do the same thing (if he doesn't hold a super premium hand) we should give him an opportunity to fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think anyone is ever folding on 3rd to one re-raise. Re-raising on 3rd is about as good of an idea as lighting yourself on fire and jumping into a huge pile of dog [censored].

[ QUOTE ]

And in the meantime steal antes like it's your job.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do understand that occasionally people do defend their BI? And then what? Your left fighting for pots with sometimes marginal holdings. Sounds like fun to me...

Yes, I understand our Hero was the chipleader in a sat, but that doesnt mean he has to totally shut down.

[Aicirt]

I appreciate your honest feedback. However I disagree with some of your comments.

Villain could have ANY two cards in the hole. We might as well assume two random cards in the hole. Every A was raised and was taking antes...no reason to give credit for a hand yet. Granted, he could have a hand. Here are some trials from twodimes showing different possibilities.

7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
4d 3d 5h 239816 250011 249968 21 246915 2946 65 0.607
Ac 9c Jd 132974 249968 250011 21 13110 5974 65 0.393

7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
4d 3d 5h 163860 269575 230286 139 170144 40852 156 0.508
Ac 7c 2d 155422 230286 269575 139 175508 55955 156 0.492

7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
4d 3d 5h 126916 145576 354388 36 199655 11335 117 0.393
Ac 7c Ad 233875 354388 145576 36 62648 23597 117 0.607

Like I said earlier, I believe the first case is much more likely than either of the second two. I cant really imagine laying this down here for a mere 4k when Im most likely ahead and if not even money.

345 needs a little help to be able to scoop. For 4k I can see 4th. If I improve then Im sitting great. If I dont and villain bets, I can lay the hand down. Heres what 4th street looks like with the trials I ran earlier.

7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 4d 3d 5h 262785 272511 227469 20 361584 437 121 0.699
Ac 9c Jd 8h 63464 227469 272511 20 10565 23556 121 0.301

7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 4d 3d 5h 202132 294563 205255 182 307561 20591 168 0.627
Ac 7c 2d 8h 75276 205255 294563 182 139555 206898 168 0.373

7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 4d 3d 5h 150619 163090 336896 14 343849 2523 181 0.526
Ac 7c Ad 8h 124538 336896 163090 14 47791 97070 181 0.474

I can now say with almost 100% certainty that I am ahead on 4th and I can start putting pressure on him.

[ QUOTE ]
The ONLY way to play this hand is to raise 3rd and hope our opponent folds. We should avoid a big pot AT ALL COSTS. And because our opponent should do the same thing (if he doesn't hold a super premium hand) we should give him an opportunity to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree completely. Calling here does a couple of things for me:

1) If he is indeed bluffing, it will give him a shot to bluff at me again on 4th.
2) Lets me see if I can improve cheaply on 4th. If I do improve, Im more than likely dominating the hand.

If I raise on 3rd and he does have a pair of aces then 3 bets are going in on 3rd and I am a dog. If I just call, then I see 4th cheaply and get 2 bets in on 4th. So this is what it looks like:

1) I raise and he has aces: 3 bets go in on 3rd and I am a dog.
2) I raise and he has junk: he maybe folds, maybe takes a card off.
3) I call and raise on 4th only if I improve. 3 bets go in by 4th street, vilain is close to pot committed, and I am ahead in the hand, even if he has aces. Im likely dominating this situation.

Aicirt

[bygmesterf]

[ QUOTE ]

The only play you can make is to raise and hope the guy was on a steal.


[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, Just flat call, and your in good shape if you catch good. A2,67 all give you scoop draws, and an 8 gives you a back door scoop. Your 60/40 against a pair of aces, and either even money or better against everything else (quick pokerprobe sims).

This hand to me, is a definatly worth taking a card off.

[jon_1van]

Lets see what the tourney gurus have to say.

For now let's just agree to disagree about this. I really do believe this should be a 3rd reraise or fold. I see no middle ground.

I understand some of you may not agree.

[jon_1van]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=3357015&page=2&view=e xpanded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1

I know I'm killing this horse, but the MTT forum poster that responded don't like playing this hand.

[Nick_Foxx]

I think you played this hand perfectly, except for the bet on the river. It turned out fine because he just called, but you might have been forced to pay an extra 8k to show down.

I can't put him on a very good hand given the pretty passive way he played after you bricked on 5th street and he caught good. I think your read that he was on a complete steal or had a weak 3-low is accurate. If he did indeed start with split Aces, you probably would have been facing a re-raise on 4th street, and definitely a raise on 5th street.

Also, I do not believe you could have just folded this hand, sat out and coasted into the seat (given that 2 more players had to be knocked out). Winning this hand would've enabled you to do just that, however.

Mike