Green Bay at Detroit: Bar Stool Pundit Slam Dunk

[natedogg]

Detroit is the pick here, according to the Bar Stool Pundit Theory.

The theory goes like this: Go to a couple bars, casually ask people who they like for this weekend. Fade the most common pick. It's THAT simple.

If you can go to yahoo's "experts picke'm" list and find a consensus that coincides with the Bar Stool Pick, you have a near lock.

Ask anyone, I mean anyone. They like Green Bay this week. They are literally counting their money already. Green Bay as an UNDERDOG to Detroit? How is that even possible man! The bookies are crazy!

The Yahoo Experts (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/pickem) unanimously picked Green Bay to win. A 3pt divisional road dog and not one dissent.

According to the Bar Stool Pundit Theory, you have to be insane to bet Green Bay this week. I'm not too crazy about betting on Detroit, but I might do it because this is one of the strongest Bar Stool Pundit lines I've ever encountered.

natedogg

[Boris]

I like the way you think.

[playersare]

using Pinnacle as a "smart money" guide, they are baiting for more bets on Green Bay +3 +100, meaning the sharps have already covered the Lions heavy. the moneyline was +150 for almost an entire week (breakeven scalp with WSEX and probably other books too), and dropped to +143, but still the sharpest line begging for Packers.

so the best value is probably the Lions at -3 -105 and below, or -150 straight up. maybe not enough for a true edge, but a good starting place to shop around. the over also looks playable at 45.5 (-105) or better. I would definitely wait closer to gametime and watch more cheesehead money roll in first.

Harrington having a breakout season opener may not be a majority consensus, but his motivation is very high to usher in a new era in the NFC North.

[TripleH68]

Have you seen the movie 'Let it Ride?'

There is a great scene where Trotter goes around the racetrack with his program asking people who they like and crossing them off until he is left with just one horse.

[judgesmails]

The over is a good play in this game.

The Packers D may be worse than it was a year ago. They cut their best defensive tackle and have a bunch of crappy players in the secondary. Opposing QBs had a cummulative rating over 99 vs. the Pack last year. If Harrington throws 20 TD this season, 8 of them could come in the 2 games vs. GB.

Meanwhile, their offense should still be able to score a bunch. I would look for a lot of high scoring games from this team - and they will lose many of them.

[Ken_AA]

this is a great theory, I use it with some of the guys in my fantasy league (they are typical fans, not bettors) and I fade them usually. However this time I was suckered in to placing my bet when i first saw the line so now I'm a sucker with a piece of cheese on my head......

Ken

[Easy E]

Do we really know the teams before the first few weeks are recorded?

Track that theory's results, natedogg

[McGahee]

couldn't agree more -
Lions are a lock

[natedogg]

[ QUOTE ]
Do we really know the teams before the first few weeks are recorded?

Track that theory's results, natedogg

[/ QUOTE ]

In the past couple days I've seen the Rams turn into another Bar Stool Pundit Pick. If anything they are rivaling the Green Bay pick. I will track these Bar Stool Pundit picks this year. We'll see how they do.

Week 1 picks are Lions and 9ers.

natedogg

[lastsamurai]

I have to go with detroit.

Greenbays D didnt improve during the off season.

Brett farve as always struggled in domes...and he's not getting any younger.

The + 3 looks like a vegas trap. let the buyer beware. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[natedogg]

So far so good. Detroit and San Francisco.

We'll see how next week goes.

natedogg

[Easy E]

Does it matter that the answers in the Detroit bars were probably fading the Lions?

Did you try this theory before Thursday night, this year?

You need to track the Bar Pundit stats as a separate line this year, natedogg /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
So far so good. Detroit and San Francisco.

We'll see how next week goes.

natedogg

[/ QUOTE ]

This thread should be a sticky.

[ QUOTE ]
Detroit is the pick here, according to the Bar Stool Pundit Theory.

The theory goes like this: Go to a couple bars, casually ask people who they like for this weekend. Fade the most common pick. It's THAT simple.

If you can go to yahoo's "experts picke'm" list and find a consensus that coincides with the Bar Stool Pick, you have a near lock.

Ask anyone, I mean anyone. They like Green Bay this week. They are literally counting their money already. Green Bay as an UNDERDOG to Detroit? How is that even possible man! The bookies are crazy!

The Yahoo Experts (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/pickem) unanimously picked Green Bay to win. A 3pt divisional road dog and not one dissent.

According to the Bar Stool Pundit Theory, you have to be insane to bet Green Bay this week. I'm not too crazy about betting on Detroit, but I might do it because this is one of the strongest Bar Stool Pundit lines I've ever encountered.

natedogg

[/ QUOTE ]

So by this thinking the Falcons are a lock tonight...

Seems like 5 out of 6 people are putting heavy money on the Eagles.

[Slacker13]

[ QUOTE ]
The theory goes like this: Go to a couple bars, casually ask people who they like for this weekend. Fade the most common pick. It's THAT simple.

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL. I have been doing that for years. I learned it from my cousin, he lives by this.

[Bill C]

I used to bet football over the phone. I'd call my man just before kickoff on Sunday, and ask "Who do you need?" That's what I'd bet. Plus, he was glad to get the play and sometimes you could chip off an extra half point or so.

Really a version of the same thing.

Bet-a-Millin Gates, a figure of about a century ago used to talk of "coppering the public play" which again is the same idea.

Fade the Yankees...

bc

[natedogg]

[ QUOTE ]
Does it matter that the answers in the Detroit bars were probably fading the Lions?

Did you try this theory before Thursday night, this year?

You need to track the Bar Pundit stats as a separate line this year, natedogg /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Before Thursday the overwhelming pick of the week was Green Bay. As Sunday approached the Rams were also getting as much chatter. By the time Sunday rolled around I was able to surmise that the Rams were quite probably all descended from greek gods, and the 9ers were actually a second string high-school team with three girls on the offensive line to boot.

natedogg