Rasputin
09-08-2005, 12:07 AM
I've been getting completely bitchslapped at the $50NL on FullTilt to the point where in 552 hands (miniscule, I know) I have lost half what I made in 8700 hands of $25 NL and I'd like to toss out a few of the big ones for commentary.
Is it me or is it variance?
$50 NL, in the small blind with QJc.
One poster in addition to the BB and two limpers to me. I complete, BB checks. Five players, $2.50 in the pot.
Flop 7c Tc 9h
Hmm, straight draw and flush draw and two overcards.
I bet $1, fold, raise to $2, call call, and I call.
Turn gives us 7c Tc 9h Qh
Top pair, jack kicker, plus straight draws and flush draws.
I bet $10 which is about pot sized, and get three callers.
Turn gives us 7c Tc 9h Qh Qd
Top set. I push, next guy pushes, third guy calls, fourth guy folds.
I lose to the guy who raised the flop bet who had QTo
Did I misplay that? Should I have assumed that if four people were willing to call a pot sized bet on the turn that at least one of them would already have a set beaten?
Second hand, I get aces in UTG+1 and raise preflop to $1.5 get three callers including the small blind, $6.50 in the pot.
Flop comes Ah, 8h, 3h
I say crap but don't want to assume I'm beat already and bet pot after two checks...fold, fold, call.
Turn gives us Ah, 8h, 3h, 2d
I bet pot again. It felt wrong when I did it because I thought the chances were very strong that he already had the flush but I told myself I had ten outs if he did. He pushed.
There's $59 in the pot and effectively a $26.35 bet to me as that's what I had left. So it was $26.35 to win $85.35 which is about 3.25:1. With three eights, treys, and deuces plus another ace, I have ten outs out of 44 cards for 3.44:1 or slightly bad odds. If there's any chance he's bluffing, don't I have to call? Should I assume that the case ace (or some of my other outs) is/are out already since there were four callers? Should I assume that some of the hearts are out already thus making my odds better?
I fully understand that five hundred some odd hands is a pathetically tiny sample size and it's entirely possible that this is simple variance. These two hands account for almost half my losses at this level.
So, how much of this was bad play and how much the dark side of variance?
Is it me or is it variance?
$50 NL, in the small blind with QJc.
One poster in addition to the BB and two limpers to me. I complete, BB checks. Five players, $2.50 in the pot.
Flop 7c Tc 9h
Hmm, straight draw and flush draw and two overcards.
I bet $1, fold, raise to $2, call call, and I call.
Turn gives us 7c Tc 9h Qh
Top pair, jack kicker, plus straight draws and flush draws.
I bet $10 which is about pot sized, and get three callers.
Turn gives us 7c Tc 9h Qh Qd
Top set. I push, next guy pushes, third guy calls, fourth guy folds.
I lose to the guy who raised the flop bet who had QTo
Did I misplay that? Should I have assumed that if four people were willing to call a pot sized bet on the turn that at least one of them would already have a set beaten?
Second hand, I get aces in UTG+1 and raise preflop to $1.5 get three callers including the small blind, $6.50 in the pot.
Flop comes Ah, 8h, 3h
I say crap but don't want to assume I'm beat already and bet pot after two checks...fold, fold, call.
Turn gives us Ah, 8h, 3h, 2d
I bet pot again. It felt wrong when I did it because I thought the chances were very strong that he already had the flush but I told myself I had ten outs if he did. He pushed.
There's $59 in the pot and effectively a $26.35 bet to me as that's what I had left. So it was $26.35 to win $85.35 which is about 3.25:1. With three eights, treys, and deuces plus another ace, I have ten outs out of 44 cards for 3.44:1 or slightly bad odds. If there's any chance he's bluffing, don't I have to call? Should I assume that the case ace (or some of my other outs) is/are out already since there were four callers? Should I assume that some of the hearts are out already thus making my odds better?
I fully understand that five hundred some odd hands is a pathetically tiny sample size and it's entirely possible that this is simple variance. These two hands account for almost half my losses at this level.
So, how much of this was bad play and how much the dark side of variance?