Correct to play for 2nd here?

[Olback]

$27 turbo on Stars (finally worked off the deposit bonus :-)

Was i correct to call and check it doen here instead of putting myself all in? I figure that this was the best way to play it and then call for the last chips on the flop if need be.

Or should i folded preflop and hoped shorty went out?

PokerStars Game #2523859469: Tournament #12282545, Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2005/09/07 - 22:29:07 (ET)
Table '12282545 1' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 4: davislawyer (10035 in chips)
Seat 6: Scoot2 (1355 in chips)
Seat 8: Olback (2110 in chips)
davislawyer: posts the ante 50
Scoot2: posts the ante 50
Olback: posts the ante 50
Scoot2: posts small blind 300
Olback: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Olback [7s 7d]
davislawyer: raises 1200 to 1800
Scoot2: calls 1005 and is all-in
Olback: calls 1200
*** FLOP *** [3h 9s Jd]
Olback: checks
davislawyer: checks
*** TURN *** [3h 9s Jd] [Tc]
Olback: checks
davislawyer: checks
*** RIVER *** [3h 9s Jd Tc] [Th]
Olback: checks
davislawyer: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Olback: shows [7s 7d] (two pair, Tens and Sevens)
davislawyer: mucks hand
Olback collected 990 from side pot
Scoot2: shows [6c 6d] (two pair, Tens and Sixes)
Olback collected 4065 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5055 Main pot 4065. Side pot 990. | Rake 0
Board [3h 9s Jd Tc Th]
Seat 4: davislawyer (button) mucked [Qs 4s]
Seat 6: Scoot2 (small blind) showed [6c 6d] and lost with two pair, Tens and Sixes
Seat 8: Olback (big blind) showed [7s 7d] and won (5055) with two pair, Tens and Sevens

[pergesu]

I had a hand earlier today that was basically the exact same thing. I don't remember the exact hands or stack sizes, but it's so close to this hand it's essentially the same for analysis.

I made the same decision as you - made the call. But later on when I thought about it, I didn't like it so much.

The reason is that if things go poorly, i.e. the shorty triples up and you lose, you're in bad shape. You don't have enough chips to steal your way back should you lose. If you fold you have a shot at winning, but if you call you're sacrificing it to give you either a very solid shot or nearly no shot. Now you have to figure out, based on the probability of losing the hand, how it relates to your chances if you were to fold. If you had more chips, or the smallie had fewer chips, I'd make the call. Because if I lose I still have some FE and can get back in it. But in this particular hand, you almost guarantee yourself third place if you lose the hand. And 77 just isn't strong enough three-way to make that gamble profitable.

[Olback]

Yeah i agree completely. After i looked at it again i think a fold would have been better, but damn iats hard to fold there. Do i really have FE if i fold and shorty wins?

Anyone else have an opinion on this?

[Fatdogs12]

Meh with the shot to knock out 2nd I can't see making this call. I can't see that someone is pushing all in here with a smaller pocket pair and they certainly arn't calling or pushing with undercards... Fold, rather push a random hand than call this.

If second stack doesn't call though I push all in to the raise.

[Nicholasp27]

fold

worse case he doubles up and u are basically tied for 2nd...steal a few blinds and u get 2nd with shot at first

if u call instead, then u leave urself with hardly any chips and u are out if u lose the hand to shorty

77 just isn't powerful enough...they both prolly have at least one card higher than u...probably 3 of their 4 on average will be higher than your 77s...that's 12 outs over 5 cards...plus one of them could be suited, have connectors/1-gaps, or have higher pp

if they are better players than you and you don't feel comfortable stealing, then call this...if u are the better player and can steal adequately, then fold

[Ixnert]

Hmm, I disagree with practically everyone here.

Big stack is on *anything*, if he's any good at all. (Which may be my fatal assumption.)

Shorty has two BBs and almost a quarter of his stack already in. Knowing he has very little time left (he'll be all-in in his SB in three hands if he doesn't go in earlier), that the big stack could be on anything, and that you're very unlikely to come along if he calls, he's going to be calling a very wide range, getting almost 2:1. This is a great situation for him to take his shot.

Add to that that on later hands, you're going to have to be pushing into the big stack. You really don't have as much FE as you might think -- in fact, if shorty doubles up here, you'll have the least of anyone at the table. You can't base your action here on a likelihood of being able to steal later, because you don't have a very good situation for it.

I wouldn't be surprised if the other two have only two overcards to your pair between them, and underpairs are certainly in both of their ranges. You've got a top 10% hand here (barely), 2.5:1 pot odds, you're certainly the favorite (though less than 50%) against their collective ranges, and you'll be in the hunt for first (about a 2:1 underdog, but managable) if you win. What's more, you're only really afraid of the situation where shorty wins the hand and you come in third -- you still have 1500 chips if shorty wins but you beat the big stack, which isn't all that much worse than you're starting with.

Get your chips in, this is the best situation you're likely to see. (And for what it's worth, I either push or get my last 300-some chips in on any flop, probably the latter for the miniscule chance that the big stack folds.) Someone else has a bigger pair, so be it, but you're probably getting your money in with the best of it.

[Nicholasp27]

there are 20 cards below the 7
there are 28 cards above the 7

probability alone would say they should have >2 above the 7 combined

however, take into consideration that the bb and sb both are committing 1800 chips to this pot pf...that definitely increases the odds to 3+ between them

[Nicholasp27]

[ QUOTE ]
What's more, you're only really afraid of the situation where shorty wins the hand and you come in third -- you still have 1500 chips if shorty wins but you beat the big stack, which isn't all that much worse than you're starting with.

[/ QUOTE ]

it is much worse because now shorty is 3x what he was...sure your chips didn't change THAT much, but shorty has 1200 more than if u had folded...

also, what happens if big stack decides to bet into the dry pot to put u in after 3 cards higher than 7 (or even 2) flop? u will fold...so u are quite possibly looking at just giving away 1200 chips by calling here unless u flop a 7, which is unlikely

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What's more, you're only really afraid of the situation where shorty wins the hand and you come in third -- you still have 1500 chips if shorty wins but you beat the big stack, which isn't all that much worse than you're starting with.

[/ QUOTE ]

it is much worse because now shorty is 3x what he was...sure your chips didn't change THAT much, but shorty has 1200 more than if u had folded...

also, what happens if big stack decides to bet into the dry pot to put u in after 3 cards higher than 7 (or even 2) flop? u will fold...so u are quite possibly looking at just giving away 1200 chips by calling here unless u flop a 7, which is unlikely

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is why getting all-in PF is fine.

In order to come in third here, shorty has to beat both you and the big-stack. Im guessing with any 2 against a raise (any 2) and 77 his chances are 20%ish. The rest of the time, yo either triple up and guarantee 2nd or bust along with shortie and finish 2nd.

Push it in...dont get clever.

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]

also, what happens if big stack decides to bet into the dry pot to put u in after 3 cards higher than 7 (or even 2) flop? u will fold...so u are quite possibly looking at just giving away 1200 chips by calling here unless u flop a 7, which is unlikely

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, I call. I'd consider it first class idiocy to do anything else. That's what, 18:1 pot odds? Enough to chase my two-outer with two to come, certainly...

(But I probably just push 'em in preflop.)

And speaking to your other point, overcards, undercards, whatever, the issue here is that you're ahead of their ranges, possibly well ahead, with favorable odds and only one situation you really hate.

[DDH]

This is three handed, the big stack could have anything, pair of sevens is a very strong hand here, I push it all in preflop.

[Olback]

AS can be seen, i did call and checked it down. I did not bother to push all in preflop as he would have called anyway. By leaving chips back (only 300 or so) i knew that big stack would be more likely to check it down. If he bet i would have to call and hope for the best. That way worst case scenario i lose and still have chips and with the high blinds only need to get lucky once to get back into it.

I did not feel a fold was correct here as the blinds were huge and i am getting huge odds to call. If i fold i have no FE.

If the blinds were lower, say 200/400 would people fold then? I think i would.

[TT_fold]

[ QUOTE ]
there are 20 cards below the 7
there are 28 cards above the 7

probability alone would say they should have >2 above the 7 combined

however, take into consideration that the bb and sb both are committing 1800 chips to this pot pf...that definitely increases the odds to 3+ between them

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I'll make you a prop bet.

I deal you two cards. If they are both above a 7, you win. If they are both below a 7, I win. We both put up the same amount.

Keep in mind that BOTH cards must be above a 7... and that only happens (28/52)(27/51)... 28.51%

pwn3d

[Nicholasp27]

both above a 7, i win
both below a 7, u win

what happens when it's 1 and 1? we get our bets back?

if so, i win, as you only win 14% of the time compared to my 28%

[Ixnert]

You miss the point. With 4 cards between your two opponents, you get 4 overcards to your sevens 8.8% of the time and 3 overcards about 28% of the time. You get exactly two almost 50% of the time.

[Nicholasp27]

my statement was:

[ QUOTE ]
there are 20 cards below the 7
there are 28 cards above the 7

probability alone would say they should have >2 above the 7 combined

however, take into consideration that the bb and sb both are committing 1800 chips to this pot pf...that definitely increases the odds to 3+ between them

[/ QUOTE ]


this is true if 9% they get 4, 28% they get 3, 50% they get 2...the most likely single outcome is 2, but the average is over 2

i then said that due to the fact that they committed 1800 chips to the hand, that then gives you information which limits the hands like 23, 24, 26, etc which changes the odds and pushes it closer to 3...


where is the error in my logic?