TT against a LPP, river whatttttt [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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brazilio

09-07-2005, 06:00 PM

48 hands, nothing out of line besides going to showdown a large amount of time. VP$IP of 40, pfr of 6, postflop aggression of 1.2. He'd lost about 10BB over 4 or 5 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (6 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (8 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero what what

Final Pot: FISHY

peterchi

09-07-2005, 06:03 PM

Fish need money too. I give him 4 bucks.

And then take note of wtf he played like that.

callmedonnie

09-07-2005, 06:06 PM

Because I can't fold this and I can't raise this, I call this.

Isura

09-07-2005, 06:12 PM

When was the last time you won one of these? It's very close due to the huge pot odds, but I think it's still a fold.

brazilio

09-07-2005, 06:34 PM

That's why I'm asking. My first inclination was an immediate fold and then I called despite my feelings because the river was so bizarre and 75 or 52 are probably beyond even this guy.

Nick C

09-07-2005, 08:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's why I'm asking. My first inclination was an immediate fold and then I called despite my feelings because the river was so bizarre and 75 or 52 are probably beyond even this guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's probably got something like 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif or Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif or a rivered set of fours instead.

That said, I might have called his river checkraise too. I do that sometimes, when the pot's kind of big and I don't trust my read on my opponent and I'm having trouble putting him on a hand.

TemetNosce

09-07-2005, 08:43 PM

Hero folds.

This guy is a loose goose and there are several hands that can beat you that he probably played from the BB. You are probably looking at a set or two pair. While the pot is offering 11:1 odds, I can't call this check-raise with less than top pair unless you tell me that this guy is capable of bluff check-raising the river. And that's unlikely.

Bodhi

09-07-2005, 10:27 PM

Hero calls. The pot is too big to fold for just one more bet, but you can expect to lose 90% of the time. I've had fish throw in a river check-raise with wacky hands on a number of occasions.

Ok, I don't mean to hijack, but this is what I'm talking about:

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO is a fish.

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, SB folds.

River: (7.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO raises /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/crazy.gif, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Results:
CO shows QhTh for 2 pair, tens and eights.
UTG+1 shows Td7d for 2 pair, tens and eights.
Hero wins 13.5BB

neuroman

09-07-2005, 10:36 PM

In Small Stakes Hold'em, Sklansky generally advocates calling for one bet when the pot is offering 10:1 or better, unless you have a stone read on your opponent.

I call, and expect to be beaten.

W. Deranged

09-07-2005, 10:42 PM

I'm calling here because I simply have no idea what villain could have had here. There is nothing logical that he had that hit that river. Not to say our opponents are logical, but that fact alone puts enough doubt into my head to call. Someone who has been losing may be trying to manufacture wins.

brazilio

09-07-2005, 10:45 PM

No hijack at all, because that's almost exactly what happened here. I was just so sure of the fold and thought that call was 100% a mistake, especially from an LPP. I figured the consensus would be a definite fold, but it's not looking nearly as easy as I thought it would be.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (6 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (8 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 8c 3c (one pair, threes).
Hero has Th Tc (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 12 BB.

TemetNosce

09-07-2005, 10:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I call, and expect to be beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what you are saying, but if you expect to be beaten, I think a fold is in order here. I would easily make the call with top pair against this opponent, but with only second-best pair I'm passing here without a stronger read on this opponent. Second pair is a weak hand against many hands here that beat me. I need better than what the pot is offering here to call a river check-raise.

W. Deranged

09-07-2005, 11:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call, and expect to be beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what you are saying, but if you expect to be beaten, I think a fold is in order here. I would easily make the call with top pair against this opponent, but with only second-best pair I'm passing here without a stronger read on this opponent. Second pair is a weak hand against many hands here that beat me. I need better than what the pot is offering here to call a river check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This line of thinking is way off for a bunch of reasons:

1. There are many times when it is correct to call and expect to lose. In fact, any time you think you are less than 50% to win but will win often enough to merit the odds given, you are "calling and expecting to lose."

2. Generally, not having a read on an opponent is as good a reason to call as having a read. I actually will assume that most villain's at least can bluff, say, 5-10% of the time, and hence am very cautious about folding a big pot without a read.

3. Don't think about hands as absolute entities. Sometimes second pair is a very strong hand given the course of play. Sometimes it's total paper. Instead of thinking about the fact you have "second pair," think about how many plausible hands villain could have that are actually beating you. Very often, many of the hands that one would worry about are not particularly likely given the course of play. For example, I'm not that worried about most hands containing a Q here, since most players usually will make an aggressive move earlier than the river with flopped top pair (if they make such a move at all).

Bodhi

09-07-2005, 11:22 PM

Nice hand. Folding with 11:1 payoff on the river is almost never correct.

AdamL

09-07-2005, 11:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No hijack at all, because that's almost exactly what happened here. I was just so sure of the fold and thought that call was 100% a mistake, especially from an LPP. I figured the consensus would be a definite fold, but it's not looking nearly as easy as I thought it would be.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (6 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (8 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 8c 3c (one pair, threes).
Hero has Th Tc (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 12 BB. 

[/ QUOTE ]

You might be being a bit results oriented. Brunson said something that stuck in my mind -- "if you aren't folding the best hand every now and then, you're calling too much."

brazilio

09-07-2005, 11:48 PM

I'm not being results-oriented at all. I thought it was an incorrect call and thought the forum consensus would be the same thing. It's not. The results are irrelevant.

peterchi

09-08-2005, 12:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Brunson said something that stuck in my mind -- "if you aren't folding the best hand every now and then, you're calling too much."

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly certain that Brunson was referring to NL, which has entirely different implications and assumptions. I really don't fold the best hand that often in limit.

Bodhi

09-08-2005, 12:18 AM

Who gives a rat's ass about what Brunson said one time? He also made claims of being able to 'feel' which cards are coming when on a rush.

'Results-Oriented' is typically said here when the hand played out in the hero's favor. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

TemetNosce

09-08-2005, 08:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
1. There are many times when it is correct to call and expect to lose. In fact, any time you think you are less than 50% to win but will win often enough to merit the odds given, you are "calling and expecting to lose."

3. Don't think about hands as absolute entities. Sometimes second pair is a very strong hand given the course of play. Sometimes it's total paper. Instead of thinking about the fact you have "second pair," think about how many plausible hands villain could have that are actually beating you. Very often, many of the hands that one would worry about are not particularly likely given the course of play. For example, I'm not that worried about most hands containing a Q here, since most players usually will make an aggressive move earlier than the river with flopped top pair (if they make such a move at all).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the comments.

Regarding #1, yes, I understand this. I'm not going to fold for one bet into a big pot when I think I have a 40% chance to win, for example. I just didn't think that my chances were very good (<10%) when getting river check-raised by a LPP.

I was assuming that a LPP represented a Loose Passive Player, so I didn't think a river check-raise from an LPP represented a bluff and the odds were not good enough to call. I'm thinking, maybe incorrectly, that a LPP is usually only going to show strength when they have a strong hand. If it was a LAG I'm dealing with, then I'm definitely not folding, as it would be much more likely that the river check-raise is a bluff.

In regards to #3, I felt that TT was not a strong enough hand here given the context of this hand, not an absolute judgment of second pair in all situations. I often see many LPPs waiting until they have a hand better than just top pair to make a strong move and felt that it was likely that this happened here. Also, my experience has been that LPPs will sometimes also wait to the river to show strength when they have flopped a set. The final board is kind of ragged, but there are plenty of possibilities for a LPP to have me beat given the types of hands that a LPP would play. Given all of that, I didn't think a call was +EV. In this particular case, I certainly was wrong.

Luv2DriveTT

09-08-2005, 08:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
In Small Stakes Hold'em, Ed Miller generally advocates calling for one bet when the pot is offering 10:1 or better, unless you have a stone read on your opponent.

I call, and expect to be beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP, give the man some credit!

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

ellipse_87

09-08-2005, 09:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He'd lost about 10BB over 4 or 5 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's enough of a read to put villain on a 10% chance of being on tilt, justifying a call.

Bodhi's hand is similar but not exactly on point, IMHO. In that hand, hero had top two pair. In this one, there's an overcard to our pocket pair. Also, in this hand villain is in the BB when 5 saw the flop on an EP PF raise, opening up weird 2-pair possibilities that weren't there in the other hand.

mtdoak

09-08-2005, 01:53 PM

You have to call here. This could be a situation where he is slowplaying a set or is just plain bluffing. Or 44.