robertsonjohn
09-07-2005, 04:34 PM
I was casino whoring some blackjack, and running bad. I noticed that I seemed to lose an inordinate number of my double down bets, so I decided to start tracking them to see how many I would win. Over the course of around 800 hands playing perfect basic strategy, I ended up winning 7 times, and losing 17 – for an overall winning percentage of 29%.
Obviously various double down situations have a greater chance of winning than others (doubling your eleven vs. a six clearly is more advantageous than doubling against a nine), but obviously all double down situations have to have a greater than 50% chance of winning or you wouldn’t be advised to double.
Despite this small sample size, I wondered if anyone knew a way to calculate the probabilities of a losing streak in this range, assuming an expected winning percentage of a double down hand to be around 51-52% (I tried to do a search to find what the average expected win percentage of all doubling hands combined were, but couldn’t find it).
I’m mostly just trying to gauge how bad I am running, and if there is a possibility of the casino skewing the deck.
Obviously various double down situations have a greater chance of winning than others (doubling your eleven vs. a six clearly is more advantageous than doubling against a nine), but obviously all double down situations have to have a greater than 50% chance of winning or you wouldn’t be advised to double.
Despite this small sample size, I wondered if anyone knew a way to calculate the probabilities of a losing streak in this range, assuming an expected winning percentage of a double down hand to be around 51-52% (I tried to do a search to find what the average expected win percentage of all doubling hands combined were, but couldn’t find it).
I’m mostly just trying to gauge how bad I am running, and if there is a possibility of the casino skewing the deck.