That guy
09-07-2005, 02:41 PM
trades on UK market...
Seems investors were surprised of the first ever quarter over quarter decline in revenue (June qtr vs March qtr)...
It makes some sense that results were down due to summer but this hasn't happened before...
FYI, here are some comments by major Wall Street investment house analyst:
Partygaming (IL/A): A poor opening hand, but remains flush with cash
************************************************** ******************************
* PartyGaming's maiden H1 results validated our concerns about rising *
* customer acquisition costs and the lack of visibility on future industry *
* growth rates. With regard to the former issue, our calculation suggests a *
* 15% increase in CACs in Q2 2005 vs. Q1 2005. With regard to growth rates, *
* the muted start to the (historically strong) Q3 period, following the first *
* sequential quarterly decline in Q2 2005 (-4.8% vs. Q1 2005) has clearly *
* dampened optimism about growth potential. Despite this, we were surprised *
* by the magnitude of the share price move. Whilst we retain our cautious *
* view of the sub-sector, as evinced in in our recent report (Party pooper, *
* August 22 2005) the level of cash generation is such that the stock - ex *
* any legal shock - now looks fairly well under-pinned. In view of this, we *
* see relatively limited downside from current levels and retain our IL/A *
* rating on the stock. *
************************************************** ******************************
Growth rates moderating faster than anticipated
In our initiation report on PRTY, we also analysed a number of precedents
for growth in gaming stocks, concluding that the growth profile for 'new'
gaming products tended to be characterised by rapid growth rates, followed
by a sharp slow-down after two - three years. It is frankly still too
early to tell whether the data released by PartyGaming today signals the
start of this stagnation, or whether it simply reflects an extension of
the seasonally slower Q2 period (especially in view of the fact that the
televised WSOP started around three weeks later than it did in 2004).
What is clear, however, is that growth rates do seem to be moderating
faster than the market initially anticipated, with the Q2 2005 poker
revenue showing the first sequential quarter-on-quarter decline yet
experienced by PRTY (-4.8%). We had previously forecast 4% QoQ growth for
poker revenues in 2Q2005E, reflecting an aggregation of two data points:
1) Empire's poker results, which showed QoQ revenue growth of 8.3%; and b)
PokerPulse data for 2Q2005, which (according to Unibet) showed a decline
of 0.9% over 1Q2005. The PRTY result suggests a modest decline in market
share for the company.
Seems investors were surprised of the first ever quarter over quarter decline in revenue (June qtr vs March qtr)...
It makes some sense that results were down due to summer but this hasn't happened before...
FYI, here are some comments by major Wall Street investment house analyst:
Partygaming (IL/A): A poor opening hand, but remains flush with cash
************************************************** ******************************
* PartyGaming's maiden H1 results validated our concerns about rising *
* customer acquisition costs and the lack of visibility on future industry *
* growth rates. With regard to the former issue, our calculation suggests a *
* 15% increase in CACs in Q2 2005 vs. Q1 2005. With regard to growth rates, *
* the muted start to the (historically strong) Q3 period, following the first *
* sequential quarterly decline in Q2 2005 (-4.8% vs. Q1 2005) has clearly *
* dampened optimism about growth potential. Despite this, we were surprised *
* by the magnitude of the share price move. Whilst we retain our cautious *
* view of the sub-sector, as evinced in in our recent report (Party pooper, *
* August 22 2005) the level of cash generation is such that the stock - ex *
* any legal shock - now looks fairly well under-pinned. In view of this, we *
* see relatively limited downside from current levels and retain our IL/A *
* rating on the stock. *
************************************************** ******************************
Growth rates moderating faster than anticipated
In our initiation report on PRTY, we also analysed a number of precedents
for growth in gaming stocks, concluding that the growth profile for 'new'
gaming products tended to be characterised by rapid growth rates, followed
by a sharp slow-down after two - three years. It is frankly still too
early to tell whether the data released by PartyGaming today signals the
start of this stagnation, or whether it simply reflects an extension of
the seasonally slower Q2 period (especially in view of the fact that the
televised WSOP started around three weeks later than it did in 2004).
What is clear, however, is that growth rates do seem to be moderating
faster than the market initially anticipated, with the Q2 2005 poker
revenue showing the first sequential quarter-on-quarter decline yet
experienced by PRTY (-4.8%). We had previously forecast 4% QoQ growth for
poker revenues in 2Q2005E, reflecting an aggregation of two data points:
1) Empire's poker results, which showed QoQ revenue growth of 8.3%; and b)
PokerPulse data for 2Q2005, which (according to Unibet) showed a decline
of 0.9% over 1Q2005. The PRTY result suggests a modest decline in market
share for the company.