+ev play??

I see a lot of emphasis placed on +ev play and pot odds. Typically on SNL tables a speculative call early that misses can be crippling. Ok there is 600 in the pot you can call for 200 on a 2 to one draw? The pot odds say yes but if you miss you are basically crippled? If you hit there is no guarantee of winning that tourney. I definitely take into account number of outs vs current stack size but place pot odds fairly low on my importance list in SNL. I guess when I think of +ev I think in terms of what kind of position does this give me in this tourney? That 4 to 1 flush draw may pay 8 to 1 but if you play the odds you are out of 3 tourneys and hit it in one? Even if you win the one tourney in which you hit your draw your ITM is 25%?? Doesn’t seem like +ev play to me? Again I am talking about early draw hands. Comments?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
I see a lot of emphasis placed on +ev play and pot odds. Typically on SNL tables a speculative call early that misses can be crippling. Ok there is 600 in the pot you can call for 200 on a 2 to one draw? The pot odds say yes but if you miss you are basically crippled? If you hit there is no guarantee of winning that tourney. I definitely take into account number of outs vs current stack size but place pot odds fairly low on my importance list in SNL. I guess when I think of +ev I think in terms of what kind of position does this give me in this tourney? That 4 to 1 flush draw may pay 8 to 1 but if you play the odds you are out of 3 tourneys and hit it in one? Even if you win the one tourney in which you hit your draw your ITM is 25%?? Doesn’t seem like +ev play to me? Again I am talking about early draw hands. Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

In your example below, I might be more inclined to call early if 200 won't "cripple me"...less than 20% of my stack. Also if I believe I have more than my flush working for me. Is the 200 to call on the flop? Is Villain all-in? Your example is very vague and needs more detail, there is no way it can answered definitively "yes or no", but here are some general thoughts:

I think it depends on the type of tourney, Buyin and structure. I am an SNG player who MTTs "on the side" at low buyins (10s-30s). But generally speaking, if its a huge field I take a pretty unorthodox approach early, in that I will pass on these opportunites, because there are so many better ones usually awaiting me later. If the blinds are low and I have my starting stack, I know someone will double me up when Im a 2-1 through 4-1 favorite. With so many players in the field, some of them so clueless, I will pass on these seemingly +EV calls in favor of huge edges at the expense of the multitudes of clueless LAGS which comprise a large section of the field.

[Nicholasp27]

the emphasis here is on +ev based on ICM, not based on pot odds

gambler's ruin is very much in our thoughts on this forum


when most on here say a move is +ev, they aren't talking pot odds, but in terms of ICM, equity, stealing potential, FE if lose the hand, etc