How lucky would you have to get to convince you to believe in God?

[JoshuaD]

I had Sklanksy in mind when this question occured to me, but I'd like to hear answers from everyone.

Let's say a priest walks up to you and says "God has decided to reveal himself to you, He has decided to make you get very lucky in the next week."

He also makes it clear to you that this isn't exploitable -- you can't go out and buy a lottery ticket and expect it to pay off.

What sort of improbable event(s) would have to occur for you to be convinced?

Would...
<ul type="square"> Going on a 100BB run?
Going on a 200BB run?
300BB?
500BB?
1,000BB?
Hitting a royal flush convince you?
Hitting 2?
3?
Angelina Jolie and you happen to run into each other, and she falls madly in love?
Winning the Lottery?
[/list]

Or more generally, how improbable an event would it take to convince you?

This question is pointed at atheists and agnostics, but anyone who believes in some God can consider this a prophecy from a priest of a different God.

[sexdrugsmoney]

[ QUOTE ]
<ul type="square"> Angelina Jolie and you happen to run into each other, and she falls madly in love?
Winning the Lottery?
[/list]


[/ QUOTE ]

If this happened I would strongly take a look at that religion the priest is a part of.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
But what if I normally play the lottery every week anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]

"God works in mysterious ways."

In other words, it might hit, it might not. God's going to show you something highly improbable to try convince you to believe in him. You have no idea what form it will come in.

[BluffTHIS!]

I believe that David has said that only witnessing a supernatural miracle that defied the physical laws of our universe would make him believe, not just some longshot happening in everyday life, of which there is a small but certain probability of happening at some time anyway. The same would go for what we would call a coincidence like meeting some celebrity.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that David has said that only witnessing a supernatural miracle that defied the physical laws of our universe would make him believe, not just some longshot happening in everyday life, of which there is a small but certain probability of happening at some time anyway. The same would go for what we would call a coincidence like meeting some celebrity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, the kicker is that someone told you it's going to happen within the next week.

If I won the lottery tommorow, it wouldn't change my belief in God.

If a priest walked up to me and told me I was going to get incredibly lucky, and the next day I won the lottery, I'd be up against some hard thinking.

[chezlaw]

Depends on how many people get the same prophecy.

Chez

[sexdrugsmoney]

[ QUOTE ]
God's going to show you something highly improbable to try convince you to believe in him. You have no idea what form it will come in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Preferably famous, female, and fuckable.

But I'll take a few million instead, I'm easy. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[BluffTHIS!]

Astrologers by virtue of throwing out so many predictions inevitably get some right but that doesn't convince rational thinkers. The only thing that might qualify for David is only one prophecy being given that has to be fulfilled at a certain time and place, and still would have to be something extremely unlikely to boot.

[sexdrugsmoney]

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing that might qualify for David is only one prophecy being given that has to be fulfilled at a certain time and place, and still would have to be something extremely unlikely to boot.

[/ QUOTE ]

What prophecy do you speak of o' Catholic one? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
Depends on how many people get the same prophecy.

Chez

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice catch. It's clear that you're the only person the priest told this to.

[BluffTHIS!]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only thing that might qualify for David is only one prophecy being given that has to be fulfilled at a certain time and place, and still would have to be something extremely unlikely to boot.

[/ QUOTE ]

What prophecy do you speak of o' Catholic one? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean no specific prohpehcies from the past, only one that might be given in the future to be fulfilled at a specific time and place, be exremely unlikely (but also probably actually contrary to the laws of physics), and also as I should have mentioned above, be unable to be manipulated into occurring by human agency. Even this might not do it for him.

[sexdrugsmoney]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only thing that might qualify for David is only one prophecy being given that has to be fulfilled at a certain time and place, and still would have to be something extremely unlikely to boot.

[/ QUOTE ]

What prophecy do you speak of o' Catholic one? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean no specific prohpehcies from the past, only one that might be given in the future to be fulfilled at a specific time and place, be exremely unlikely (but also probably actually contrary to the laws of physics), and also as I should have mentioned above, be unable to be manipulated into occurring by human agency. Even this might not do it for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would seem from his previous postings that anything that fantastic and illogical would have him seeking a mental help professional before believing said prophecy.

[BluffTHIS!]

OK, so make it 3 separate and different prophecies that meet all the stipulations I gave, with shrink visits in between. He has to have some breaking point.

[chezlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Depends on how many people get the same prophecy.

Chez

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice catch. It's clear that you're the only person the priest told this to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I don't know but I volunteer for the experiment.

chez

[sexdrugsmoney]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, so make it 3 separate and different prophecies that meet all the stipulations I gave, with shrink visits in between. He has to have some breaking point.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would personally wager against Sklansky believing ... ever.

I don't think Sklansky would have the guts to come on here to 2+2 with the reputation he has built here and one day say "Why I believe in [insert religion]" even if he felt it was the truth.

Sklansky has said if there was proper evidence he would believe, but if it came down to it I think even if he was faced with "the truth" he would find some small way to rationalize it or dismiss it as coincidence.

Yet, who knows?

(In no way do I mean offence David)

[thatpfunk]

I don't think any sort of great poker run, or even winning the lottery would seal the deal. They would make think about it quite deeply, however.

The only one that seems completely improbable, and therefore more difficult to accept, is meeting a famous woman, love, sex, etc. That would make me examine it much more closely than a lotto win.

I am trying to think if any event would completely seal it for me... The situation would have to be absurd- Having my car inexplicably break down, walking to a gas station, finding a winning lotto ticket on the way there, or something along those lines.

Seeing something is physically impossible with my own eyes, such as:

1. A whole hospital of patients getting better instaneously
2. 1 patient with severe external injuries instantly healing in front of my eyes.
3. Bringing a true corpse back to life (several days old)
4. A person becoming able to fly
5. God appearing in an angelic form to many people simultaneously.
6. Lightning writing the 10 commandments on the ground
etc

Nothing that is possible, but merely improbable, would convince me.

[hurlyburly]

I would be extremely disappointed if "lucky" translated to material gain. It would have to be something on the order of needing an emergency transplant for a family member to survive and having a perfect match available immediately.

With so many needing so much less materially, I'd see that as nothing more than positive variance.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I would be extremely disappointed if "lucky" translated to material gain. It would have to be something on the order of needing an emergency transplant for a family member to survive and having a perfect match available immediately.

With so many needing so much less materially, I'd see that as nothing more than positive variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

It could be somethinga as simple as the next time you shuffle a pack of cards, they get ordered into runs of straight-flushes. That's hugely improbable.

[David Sklansky]

I would personally wager against Sklansky believing ... ever.

"I don't think Sklansky would have the guts to come on here to 2+2 with the reputation he has built here and one day say "Why I believe in [insert religion]" even if he felt it was the truth.

Sklansky has said if there was proper evidence he would believe, but if it came down to it I think even if he was faced with "the truth" he would find some small way to rationalize it or dismiss it as coincidence."

You and BluffTHIS have me pegged dead wrong. It's not surprising though because religious people need to believe that non believers have a strong psychological component to their non belief. Especially the highly intelligent non believers. But for me at least there is no such component.

An incredibly unlikely event is very similar to a breaking of a law of physics. In fact it is basically the same thing if it unlikely enough. But something somewhat less unlikely, if it was directly associated with a priest trying to prove himself to me, would definitely have an effect. As long as I was sure it wasn't some sort of trick or I wasn't hallucinating. If that could somehow be proved to me it would become a math problem. Based on my present estimation that Jesus is the son of God.

Say I think that is a billion to one underdog. If the priest calls thiry unfixed football games right (with the spread of course) Jesus becomes about even money. 25 games and he is still a 30-1 underdog but no longer ridiculously farfetched. 50 games and I'm off to the confessional.

Unfortunately however the problem of magicians tricks or hallucinations enters into it. That's why it would have to be calling football games rather than flipping coins. As for hallucinations, that is also something that probably will occur with greater frequency than one in a billion and thus would have a pretty big impact on my Baye's Theorem related assessment of probabilities. And that is the bottom line. EVERYTHING has a probability above zero and less than one. My personal probabilty regarding the existence of an entity that created our universe is over 10%. But that is a long long way from Mary being a virgin.

[Piers]

[ QUOTE ]
Or more generally, how improbable an event would it take to convince you?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no level of improbability.

If I am dealt 13 clubs in a bridge hand I know someone has rigged the deal.

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say a priest walks up to you and says "God has decided to reveal himself to you, He has decided to make you get very lucky in the next week."
…. etc


[/ QUOTE ]

So now I know who has been rigging things.

I am confident there will always be a more plausible answer than God, even if its just being very (un)lucky

Edit: To expend on the last point. If it was a very implausible event, and I could see now sign of an explanation, I would just categorise it as something I could not explain and wait for further data input. I don't see why God has to have anything to do with it.

[Quaalude]

Here's what it would take for me:

Israelis and Palestinians declare a complete peace, completely disarm, send their daughers off to marry the sons of the other side, and then open a pork processing plant on Temple Mount to supply their new, jointly run, international chain of fast-food restaurants.

Osama bin Laden opens a hot new nightclub in downtown New York. George Bush and the 911 families all attend, saying, "Let's let by-gones be by-gones." "Sadam Hussein and the Kurdish 5" are the opening act.

The Pentagon is turned into low income housing.

Every billionaire in the world gives his or her entire fortune away to the poor. World hunger and poverty disappear. Wars cease.

If all of these things happened within a week, I'd probably start to think something might be up.

-Travas

[sexdrugsmoney]

I'm not going anywhere with this but I'm drunk and thought it was interesting.

Q. With a thin turkey baster or similar, could a virgin be impregnated?

After all, all hymens do have a gap to let urine through, so surely it should be theoretically possible for a fully developed woman to have a hymen intact and be impregnated via turkey baster or some other method.

And what about girls who break their hymen's horseriding or via other physical activity, but haven't actually had sex? Are they still considered virgins despite their hymen breaking via physical exercise, excluding sex?

[David Sklansky]

Spaminator was right about you.

[Kripke]

HAHA, great post.

[sexdrugsmoney]

I hate you David. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[BluffTHIS!]

[ QUOTE ]

You and BluffTHIS have me pegged dead wrong. It's not surprising though because religious people need to believe that non believers have a strong psychological component to their non belief. Especially the highly intelligent non believers. But for me at least there is no such component.

Say I think that is a billion to one underdog. If the priest calls thiry unfixed football games right (with the spread of course) Jesus becomes about even money. 25 games and he is still a 30-1 underdog but no longer ridiculously farfetched. 50 games and I'm off to the confessional.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I have you pegged wrong and in fact in my posts above stated that you would have to have a series of highly improbable happenings that you observed to make you change your views, which is what you have stated above. I possibly only underestimated how many such occurences you would need.