AA, 10-20 Borgata

[nate1729]

Maybe not small stakes, but it's playing loose, so whatever.

SB plays too many hands but has skillz. Good hand-reader, good value-bettor, good at lots of things.

BB has some skills but generally sucks. Plays too many hands, throws in bets for no good reason postflop. Has some moves in his arsenal.

MP is crappy loosey whatever. More "plays too many hands" loose than "calls down with anything" loose, but he's not making any big laydowns.

MP2 is good.

I'm viewed as tight; SB and MP2 probably see me more as tight-aggressive and capable of making moves.

I have black AA. MP and MP2 limp, I raise, both blinds and MMP and MP2 call.

Flop K86, two clubs. SB bets, BB calls, MP calls, MP2 folds, I call.

Turn K86 5 [offsuit]. SB bets, BB calls, MP calls, I raise, all call.

River offsuit 9. SB bets, BB folds, MP folds, I call.

I guess the river might conceivably be wrong, but I'd seen SB try a somewhat similar bluff earlier. Yeah, yeah, he's betting into 3 other players, I'm beat... but there's always AK. The guy was an aggressive value-bettor, after all.

I'm far more interested in the turn.

I'll save my other comments for now, but if you really want to stroke me ego, check out my article in 2+2 Internet Magazine and compare and contrast. But obviously I'm most interested in analyzing this hand individually.

--Nate

[Petteri]

I think your line is good. I would raise flop, but waiting until turn is not bad either.

SB has been betting all the way. Action suggest he has at least two pair. But pot is almost 20 BB and you have hand with some showdown value. There is no overcalls and you are ending the action. River fold is mistake against all but most unimaginary opponents. Call river and hope he has King with good kicker.

[invictus33]

I like you're line through the turn, but I would have raised the river here as well. You're looking at Kx here most of the time and he'll probably call a river raise as well. A stronger hand would have 3 bet the turn on your raise.

[nate1729]

Thanks for the comments.

Given what I knew of this guy, I thought it was very unlikely that he had less than one pair on a K9865 board, given the action, though. I don't think a river raise can be justified.

Suppose a blanker card hits the river and all check; do you think it's better to bet or take the showdown?

[Vollycat]

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose a blanker card hits the river and all check; do you think it's better to bet or take the showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd bet out, because like an earlier replied said, he called your turn raise, instead of 3 betting.

[sfer]

I hate the flop.

[smokingrobot]

i was wondering about the same thing, why no flop raise?

was this purposely to set up the chance to raise a BB on the turn?

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

[nate1729]

Why?

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you have Aces with the trump of the suit, not Jacks on a 9 high flop.

[Munga30]

The backdoor nut club draw adds significant equity to your hand, making your equity edge on the flop very significant in this size field. It's not a small edge to be passed on, ala the TT example in SSHE. Collecting the bets now is much better than calling and checking on the turn, many times to see the action check to a late position bettor or even (ugh) check around.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

Flop is bad. You need to raise here. A raise is not going to scare away a Kx hand or a flush draw for one more bet... and if you get a raise from SB it's not so bad to scare out the draws.

Turn is good.

River is fine.

[peterchi]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop is bad...
Turn is good.


[/ QUOTE ]

okay, now I'm confused. How can you say the turn is good if you don't like the flop?

The turn raise is an entirely different line from a flop raise. If we raise the flop, we're probably not gonna get to raise the turn; we'll most likely just have to bet when checked to.

I'd most likely be raising the flop here too, but I'm still not so sure why waiting for the turn is bad.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Flop is bad...
Turn is good.


[/ QUOTE ]

okay, now I'm confused. How can you say the turn is good if you don't like the flop?

The turn raise is an entirely different line from a flop raise. If we raise the flop, we're probably not gonna get to raise the turn; we'll most likely just have to bet when checked to.

I'd most likely be raising the flop here too, but I'm still not so sure why waiting for the turn is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct. There is a good chance that you will be checked to on the turn if you are not reraised on the flop. The turn is good based on the action that occured before that (same thing with the river).

Let me flip it back -- why cold call the flop? What are you gaining?

I am not saying you should play scared, but slowplaying AA here is just foolish. By the way, can we count the scare cards here? Any club, any 4, 5, 9 or T -- any J, Q or K is likely to improve someone's hand to trips or two pairs as well.

[peterchi]

[ QUOTE ]

I am not saying you should play scared, but slowplaying AA here is just foolish.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I agree. I guess I just saw OP's line and started thinking it wasn't so terrible. But yeah, you're right.

[onegymrat]

Hi Nate,

Your play is fine, I'm not sure what you are unsure of. A raise on the flop will do nothing but maybe get it checked to you on the turn, if not 3-bet by SB. Your turn raise is for value, so waiting for the turn was terrific.

SB's river bet smells of K9s or even worse 87s, either way, he's not leaving the hand. As for the river play, the pot is large, you close the action, so calling is good. Besides, I hate folding late, I'd rather do it early. You play enough hours to know that AA runs into this crap all the time. I'll cross my fingers and hope to see SB with AK.

[nate1729]

Won't raising make it hard for me to protect my hand ever?

[nate1729]

I have the button; it's not gonna get checked around. I'm trying to protect my hand on the turn. Is that possible? Is just calling the flop the best way to do it?

[nate1729]

Man, jumping ship so fast. How the heck am I going to protect my hand ever if not on the turn? Even inducing a 3bet on the flop won't do anything. Then on the turn I can't protect my hand, but I might as well get extra value/free showdown/whatever, free raise, seems superior to just calling.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Won't raising make it hard for me to protect my hand ever?

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did I say anything about hand protection?

[sfer]

Reread the two overpairs chapter in SSH and end this thread.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Won't raising make it hard for me to protect my hand ever?

[/ QUOTE ]

What are we so worried about protecting against? We have a very strong hand, and given the position of the flop bettor, the course of betting on the turn is not likely to let us face opponent's with multiple bets cold anyway.

Flop seems like a very straightforward raise for value. Everyone's going to put in that extra bet now, the turn card does not define our equity particularly more clearly, the hands we're most afraid of (flush draws and hands like KQ) aren't folding at any point and we have redraws against them anyway.

[nate1729]

Nowhere. That's the point.

[nate1729]

Hey, I don't mean to sound bitter, but perhaps you could put a little substance in one of these posts. I've read SSHE multiple times. What I'm wondering is if, with this table dynamic, it will be possible to protect my hand ever in this big pot. And if not, how to maximize value. Under the "I can't protect this hand ever" hypothesis I probably make more money by waiting until the turn to raise. Note that 8 big bets went in on the turn.

Of course, I'm not saying I'm necessarily right. That's why I, ya know, posted the hand in the first place.

--Nate

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey, I don't mean to sound bitter, but perhaps you could put a little substance in one of these posts. I've read SSHE multiple times. What I'm wondering is if, with this table dynamic, it will be possible to protect my hand ever in this big pot. And if not, how to maximize value. Under the "I can't protect this hand ever" hypothesis I probably make more money by waiting until the turn to raise. Note that 8 big bets went in on the turn.

Of course, I'm not saying I'm necessarily right. That's why I, ya know, posted the hand in the first place.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

I. You can't protect your hand
II. Your equity is huge
III. You can get excess action on the flop from a lot of hands that you beat, which can:
1. Trap the field for multiple bets
2. Potentially knock out 5 out draws
3. And this is important, still let you raise the turn with the best hand
IV. Any flush completing card makes it difficult for you to raise the turn since you now have a nut draw and getting 3-bet sucks
V. Lots of hands that you beat will give you excess flop action. You want a lot of flop action, as explained above. Few hands that you beat will give you excess turn action. You don't want a lot of turn action.
VI. All of this except IV and V are covered in the SSH chapter

Finally, raising the turn didn't protect your hand. At all. That's why I ignored your request for an explanation as to the topic of protecting your hand.

Roman numerals rule.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey, I don't mean to sound bitter, but perhaps you could put a little substance in one of these posts. I've read SSHE multiple times. What I'm wondering is if, with this table dynamic, it will be possible to protect my hand ever in this big pot. And if not, how to maximize value. Under the "I can't protect this hand ever" hypothesis I probably make more money by waiting until the turn to raise. Note that 8 big bets went in on the turn.

Of course, I'm not saying I'm necessarily right. That's why I, ya know, posted the hand in the first place.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

As far as getting more money in by waiting until the turn, I think this hand is a bit of an aberration. One of my major problem with waiting until the turn is that one of the following two things often happens:

1. Many players fold the turn and you lose your chance to collect any bets from them.

2. The turn does not necessarily get bet, for a number of reasons (flop bettor was betting a draw, turn card is a scare or action-killing card, etc...).

It is for these two big reasons I think raising the flop tends to be better for value, since you already have all of your customers lined up and totally willing to put extra money in.

[nate1729]

Interesting, but remember, I have the button, so the turn's not getting checked through.

[nate1729]

SB has 99. I think this is one of the more irrelevant results posts you'll see this week.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting, but remember, I have the button, so the turn's not getting checked through.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not so much the turn getting checked through I'm worried about (that is a much great concern which luckily doesn't worry us here).

My basic point is that waiting to raise the turn is only really better is someone bets into you on the turn. If no one bets the turn, then all that happens is you get one bet in on the flop and one on the turn, which is for obvious reasons worse than getting two in on the flop and one in on the turn. So there is a clear risk there.

In fact, about 5 minutes ago I played a hand where it was capped pre-flop 4 ways, I held KK in the the third of the four positions, and decided not to raise the flop when player #1 bet out on a J high flop. Seemed like a great "wait till the turn" situation.

Then player #1 didn't bet back into me on the turn. Boo.

[nate1729]

Thanks for the elaboration.

I agree that the turn raise *didn't* protect my hand, but I'm worried about other perfectly feasible scenarios here when a raise might have. This raise was for different reasons altogether. And I'm still not convinced that raising the flop will still allow me to raise the turn. (Indeed, as the cards lay, I think it would have been checked to me, though of course this one instance doesn't mean too much.)