Bubble - Sit-N-Go Analyzer 2nd opinion

[Scuba Chuck]

I have always ***planned*** to play this hand this way when I got here. Now that I got here, I want to be sure I'm looking at it correctly.

BTW, SGA says this is a push. And it's really not all that close. +1.1%

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) $33 tableconverter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2960)
Hero (t520)
BB (t4450)
UTG (t70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t520 (All-In)</font>, BB calls t370.

Flop: (t1040) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t1040) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t1040) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1040

Here's where I get stuck. SGA says pushing is worth $3.31 to me. Essentially my take on this is the following. Folding here, guarantees me third place (and not very likely any higher). The variance involved with pushing gives me an extra $3 in the long run. But as I think about it more, I think there might be something a little flawed in this analysis.

Push/win a showdown increases my chances at 2nd place, and maybe first. This is probably worth $3.30 of the $3.31.

Push/steal blinds doesn't change my opportunities for 2nd place that much. I am not in that much a better position than before pushing.

Fold. We know what this is worth.

So here's my conclusion. I play a lot of SNGs a month. At least 1,000. This year, I've played about 7,000 SNGs so far. From memory, this is only the 2nd time I've been in a situation like this (maybe that's because I lost the other one too - so it could have been more). SGA says that if I play my hand like this every time, it's worth $3 to me IN THE LONG RUN. Am I really seeing this situation often enough to make it worth $3?

[chisness]

take the $3

[pergesu]

Not if it really is that infrequent. It's like when Ed Miller says "If you folded every time you flopped a royal flush" then it wouldn't be that terrible of an error, because it happens so infrequently that it's insignifant.

But I do think it's important to think about it, because you sharpen your poker analysis skills.

[ace_in_the_hole]

Just wanted to bump because this is a great post. I too have pondored things like this and hope to see this post spark a great discussion. Although I would like to fold here I don't think I ever would, a much better chance with QQ but still tough. I spend so much time training my brain to make +ev plays. Folding here seems like a brain tease. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[curtains]

Folding doesn't guarantee you at least 3rd place.

[zac777]

The short answer is yes. If you look at the situation objectively and believe that it's worth $3 in the long run, then every time you make it (and all the other tiny decisions like it), you're earning that much.

The fact that you play 1000s of SNGs should make it easier to deal with losing in a spot like this, since you will see the results of all of those tiny decisions adding up.

Basically you're asking if it's better to have 3 dollars or 0. Unless the psychological hit you take from losing this 18% of the time causes you to play badly enough to tilt away 15 bucks or so, then I can't see a reason not to take it.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding doesn't guarantee you at least 3rd place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that your final answer?

[TT_fold]

[ QUOTE ]
I have always ***planned*** to play this hand this way when I got here. Now that I got here, I want to be sure I'm looking at it correctly.

BTW, SGA says this is a push. And it's really not all that close. +1.1%

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) $33 tableconverter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2960)
Hero (t520)
BB (t4450)
UTG (t70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t520 (All-In)</font>, BB calls t370.

Flop: (t1040) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t1040) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t1040) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1040

Here's where I get stuck. SGA says pushing is worth $3.31 to me. Essentially my take on this is the following. Folding here, guarantees me third place (and not very likely any higher). The variance involved with pushing gives me an extra $3 in the long run. But as I think about it more, I think there might be something a little flawed in this analysis.

Push/win a showdown increases my chances at 2nd place, and maybe first. This is probably worth $3.30 of the $3.31.

Push/steal blinds doesn't change my opportunities for 2nd place that much. I am not in that much a better position than before pushing.

Fold. We know what this is worth.

So here's my conclusion. I play a lot of SNGs a month. At least 1,000. This year, I've played about 7,000 SNGs so far. From memory, this is only the 2nd time I've been in a situation like this (maybe that's because I lost the other one too - so it could have been more). SGA says that if I play my hand like this every time, it's worth $3 to me IN THE LONG RUN. Am I really seeing this situation often enough to make it worth $3?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I don't follow your logic here.

As long as you are properly bankrolled for this level (and with 7,000 SNGs under your belt it would follow that you have a sizeable $33 bankroll), variance should not dissuade you from pushing in this spot.

I can't see how anyone who understands the concept of EV could argue otherwise.

[johnny005]

Even if your saying it doesnt really happen that often..
Who is saying that the shortie is gonna go out when he is BB. he could survive both the BB and SB and now your in trouble when it comes back around to you. I really think this is a no brainer

[bennies]

I'd say it's a close push.

After some calcs, my guess is that you bust about 10% of the time when you push (and, for once, I actually don't think bb's calling range matters very much as long as he folds at least 1/3 of the time).

Also, I think you bust about 10% of the time if you don't push.

Give tiny stack another 50 chips and this becomes a clear push imo. Take away half his "stack" and I would fold this (that is, if I could think WHILE playing which is not always the case /images/graemlins/smirk.gif)

[tigerite]

How did you get SGA to work, because the 70 doesn't cover the big blind and it won't let you do it.

Anyway to get around this I set him at 301 (the BB + 1 chip), and gave 100% in the Equity Modelling section for SB and BB (as nobody is folding the next hand, right?). Obviously the final part is giving BB 100% call. This actually gives a clear -4.4% $EV fold, so not sure how you came to your answer.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding doesn't guarantee you at least 3rd place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that your final answer?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, Im just pointing out something that you seemingly used in order to form an opinion, which is clearly false. You will come in 4th place some percentage of the time even if you fold, and although that percentage will be small, it will have some affect on your play.

It may have enough of an effect where if you really would finish in 3rd place 100% of the time, that you should fold, but because you will only do so 90% of the time, you shuold call. Okay it probably doesnt in this situation, but in a closer example something this small could be the deciding factor. Thus when doing calculations you can't just ignore the possibility of the rare 4th place finish after you fold.

Just using the sentence "folding here guarantees me third place" shows that you are not being thorough.

[tigerite]

Did you not read my post /images/graemlins/grin.gif Assume UTG will be called in his all-in the next hand (which he will - 100% of the time - guaranteed). Even put him on more chips than he has now (which gives you less of the prize pool, meaning a push should be even greater +EV).. and you'll see it's in fact -4.4%.. crazy. I wouldn't have expected it myself.

[curtains]

The BB will NOT call here 100% of the time, thats for sure.

[tigerite]

Hmm, I'm not convinced about that. 370 into an 820 pot with 4.4k behind? What % would you put him on then?

Forget that. I thought the blinds were 150/300. I'll have to work it out again now.

[tigerite]

Okay - it's 370 into a 670 pot. This makes it a lot closer then, maybe he calls with hmm, top 50%?

EV is still -3.0%.

What's seriously scary is if you throw your cards face-up (meaning he calls with only AA and KK) it's -2.4%. Ouch!

[curtains]

tiger I havent run this at all, but Im basically sure you are getting the wrong numbers and doing something wrong. There is no way in hell its -ev to push if you know he will only call with AA or KK, its not even remotely close.

I wouldn't be shocked if folding was correct but theres no chance it's as clear as the numbers you are posting.

[tigerite]

http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/6831/sga6dr.jpg

[curtains]

Those numbers are obviously wrong. Maybe it has something to do with that other window you have open...I have no idea what it means but it must be buggy, because the results are way off.

[tigerite]

The Equity Modelling window is in Edit -&gt; Equity Modelling, in SGA itself. However it does seem wrong, because EV No Call is less than EV Fold which is nonsense.

Oh well, in which case, I don't know. I'd have to run a proper by-hand ICM instead to be sure.

[curtains]

Yeah but what the heck does that equity modeling thing mean? I dont understand it at all....whats the point of it?

[tigerite]

The more likely the BB is to get a pass i.e. all fold to him, the lower the figure should be - if he got a pass 100% of the time, it should be 0% for instance. But in this case, he will get a pass 0% of the time so I think it should be 100%? But obviously eastbay hasn't got it quite working right, as the EV Fold doesn't take account of it.

[se2schul]

[ QUOTE ]
Not if it really is that infrequent. It's like when Ed Miller says "If you folded every time you flopped a royal flush" then it wouldn't be that terrible of an error, because it happens so infrequently that it's insignifant.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this. Shouldn't you always take the most +EV route possible unless there is a risk of gambler's ruin or unless doing so will forego situations with higher +EV in the future? I don't mean gambler's ruin in the sense of busting out of the tourney - I mean gambler's ruin in the sense of being broke in life and not being able to recover it.

Assuming you are properly bankrolled, I think you have to take every single +EV move. Sure, royal flushes don't come up much, so folding them doesn't really hurt your ROI. Getting dealt AA or KK on the bubble as the second shortest stack just before the super short stack will almost surely be blinded out doesn't come up that often either. Folding this can't hurt the ROI too much either. I've also noticed that I rarely get dealt AA at 7:21pm. Surely folding AA preflop whenever it's 7:21pm can't hurt the ROI too much, right? Well, if you start passing on all these clear +EV situations, you are passing up on a lot of EV.

If pushing KK in the OP's hand is worth $3 and folding is worth less, then he has to push (unless he's risking gambler's ruin, or unless doing so he's giving up a more +EV situation down the road).

Poker is all about getting the best of it, over and over and over......

All mathematics aside, do you really think it is correct to fold the second best hand in holdem, simply because you are on the bubble of a single tournament?

I can't understand how it is -EV to push this. How was it calculated?

There are also certain times in a SNG when math doens't matter, and you must rely on your poker skill. Is that so hard?

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[tigerite]

The sums are wrong because there's a bug in SGA, I might work it out by hand later, if I get time, right now I don't. But what "poker skill" is there in pushing all-in anyway. Sorry but pushes are exactly decided by maths and EV as to whether to do them or not, there is absolutely no argument to the contrary about that. "Poker skill" comes into play post-flop etc.

If you played using your math (Pushing KK = -EV), then you are going to have to rely on something else, or you will lose terribly and very quickly. Although it was stated in your reply that the math was wrong, this is what my initial reply was directed at.

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry but pushes are exactly decided by maths and EV as to whether to do them or not, there is absolutely no argument to the contrary about that. "Poker skill" comes into play post-flop etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, there is such a thing as "poker skill", even when pushing. Sometimes the anwsers are not so easy. There are times when thinking instead of auto pushing any ace or king come into play. Shouldn't you know this by now? Do I really have to explain?

"Poker Skill" comes into play well before you even see the cards in your hand, not after the flop.

[Nicholasp27]

well it may be 'in the long run' but if u pass up every +ev situation that only occurs every once in awhile in order to lower variance, then you will lower your roi a good deal, which will in turn increase your variance...

take the +ev situation...if u are scared of getting called and beat and losing your buy-in, then examine if you are playing outside your br

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
If you played using your math (Pushing KK = -EV), then you are going to have to rely on something else, or you will lose terribly and very quickly. Although it was stated in your reply that the math was wrong, this is what my initial reply was directed at.

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry but pushes are exactly decided by maths and EV as to whether to do them or not, there is absolutely no argument to the contrary about that. "Poker skill" comes into play post-flop etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, there is such a thing as "poker skill", even when pushing. Sometimes the anwsers are not so easy. There are times when thinking instead of auto pushing any ace or king come into play. Shouldn't you know this by now? Do I really have to explain?

"Poker Skill" comes into play well before you even see the cards in your hand, not after the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you mean putting people on ranges, yes, that's also included in the maths, so I am not sure what you're quite on about. This is why you have the 'ranges' boxes in SGA.

[Nicholasp27]

Post deleted by Nicholasp27

[tigerite]

I didn't make an error, as I have said already, it's a bug in SGA whereby when you set the 'equity modelling' &gt;50% the EV No Call value is less than EV Fold (which is patently nonsense)

[Nicholasp27]

btw, all utg has to do is win his BB twice and u can be blinded out...

assuming blinds don't go up, u will lose 225 the next round and 225 the next...u will then be busted on your following bb...

so it's not 1% that u are in 4th this tourney if u fold...it's higher than that

he'll have random vs random in bb and random vs random...so he's got a 25% chance of surviving until you get blinded...the odds of you getting a better hand than kk before then are &lt;1%....so you are looking at 20-25% chance of being in 4th here...do u wanna fold kk because of that?

[good2cu]

I put this through SGA, with the extact stack sizes/blinds Scuba had, and put the BB on a 100% calling range, and it ran fine didn't matter UTG didn't have enough to post a big blind. EV of pushing is .08%, which makes it a clear push. Scuba your logic is flawed, you have no reason to pass up a small edge because you are sufficently bankrolled. If you don't push you are throwing away $3.

[BadMongo]

Huh? How are you getting SGA to work with 70 chips? What version are you using?

To get SGA to work, I gave UTG 151 chips instead of 70 like tigerite did. SGA then says that a push becomes a breakeven play when the BB calls with only the top 17% of hands (33+, A7o+, A2s+, KQo, KTs+). Of course, if he calls with more hands than this (which he certainly will) the push becomes a -EV play.

So SGA is telling us that this is a fold, even though it is OVERSTATING the equity you gain by pushing for two reasons:

1) This result is based on UTG having MORE chips than he really does.

2) UTG is in the BB for all his chips next hand.

Thus, it seems like OP's inclination that this might be a fold is correct, but not for the reason he suggested.

I really don't know how some of you are getting SGA to say this is a push. Maybe I'll to do the ICM by hand to make sure it's not a problem with the program.

I'm not sure if someone already said this, but your reasoning is very flawed here. Unless you're at risk of gambler's ruin, you should consider EV to be money. Enjoy earning three dollars when the chance comes.

However, ICM is flawed when blinds are extremely high. I suggest putting UTG's stack at a significantly lower number (maybe just 1) and seeing if this is a clear push or not because with blinds so much bigger than shorty's stack, you're MUCH more likely to have third locked than from folding than ICM and SnGPT thinks.

[Eevee]

[ QUOTE ]
All mathematics aside, do you really think it is correct to fold the second best hand in holdem, simply because you are on the bubble of a single tournament?

I can't understand how it is -EV to push this. How was it calculated?

There are also certain times in a SNG when math doens't matter, and you must rely on your poker skill. Is that so hard?

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you played using your math (Pushing KK = -EV), then you are going to have to rely on something else, or you will lose terribly and very quickly. Although it was stated in your reply that the math was wrong, this is what my initial reply was directed at.

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry but pushes are exactly decided by maths and EV as to whether to do them or not, there is absolutely no argument to the contrary about that. "Poker skill" comes into play post-flop etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, there is such a thing as "poker skill", even when pushing. Sometimes the anwsers are not so easy. There are times when thinking instead of auto pushing any ace or king come into play. Shouldn't you know this by now? Do I really have to explain?

"Poker Skill" comes into play well before you even see the cards in your hand, not after the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

......

-EV

Current Music: Jason Mraz - Remedy

[BadMongo]

OK, I did the ICM by hand and got a different result than SGA (not sure why). Here it is:

Suppose BB calls with the top 60% (he's getting almost 2:1, but this is a 22 sng and the BB will still fold a lot of hands here). KK wins against this range 80.8% of the time. FWIW, this number only goes up to 82.4% if the BB calls with 100% of hands.

Two outcomes for a Push:

1. Push and BB folds (43.1%)
Chips = 520 + 150 = 670
$EV = 22.1%

2. Push and BB calls (56.9%)
(a) Hero wins (56.9% x 80.8% = 46.0%)
Chips = 520 + 520 = 1040
$EV = 24.8%

(b) BB wins (56.9% x 19.2% = 10.9%)
Chips = 520 - 520 = 0
$EV = 0.0%

One outcome for a Fold:

1. Chips = 520 - 75 = 445
$EV = 20.0%

Results:

$EV Push = (43.1% x 22.1%) + (46.0% x 24.8%) + (10.9% x 0.0%) = 20.9%
$EV Fold = 20.0%
$EV Diff = 20.9% - 20.0% = +0.9%

So ICM says push. However, since UTG is in the BB next hand, you gain less equity by pushing than ICM would suggest. The question is whether or not the equity gain is still positive. Since I'm not really sure how to quantify this factor, I'll just leave it at that. In any case, it's not going to be a huge mistake to push even if it is -EV, so I think that looking to fold KK here is pretty silly.

[BadMongo]

[ QUOTE ]
There are also certain times in a SNG when math doens't matter, and you must rely on your poker skill.

[/ QUOTE ]

The math ALWAYS matters. The interesting thing with poker is that sometimes certain factors can't be properly quantified, and this leaves room for debate. In general, push/fold poker on the bubble is not one of these times.

[Nick B.]

I can't believe this thread is this long. I am pushing and not thinking twice about it.

[durron597]

Intuitively, this is a push. I don't own SnGPT so I'll defer to everyone else's statement.

However, I would probably type "I have KK, I will show" in the chat.

[EnderFFX]

[ QUOTE ]
I have always ***planned*** to play this hand this way when I got here. Now that I got here, I want to be sure I'm looking at it correctly.

BTW, SGA says this is a push. And it's really not all that close. +1.1%

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) $33 tableconverter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2960)
Hero (t520)
BB (t4450)
UTG (t70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t520 (All-In)</font>, BB calls t370.

Flop: (t1040) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t1040) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t1040) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1040

Here's where I get stuck. SGA says pushing is worth $3.31 to me. Essentially my take on this is the following. Folding here, guarantees me third place (and not very likely any higher). The variance involved with pushing gives me an extra $3 in the long run. But as I think about it more, I think there might be something a little flawed in this analysis.

Push/win a showdown increases my chances at 2nd place, and maybe first. This is probably worth $3.30 of the $3.31.

Push/steal blinds doesn't change my opportunities for 2nd place that much. I am not in that much a better position than before pushing.

Fold. We know what this is worth.

So here's my conclusion. I play a lot of SNGs a month. At least 1,000. This year, I've played about 7,000 SNGs so far. From memory, this is only the 2nd time I've been in a situation like this (maybe that's because I lost the other one too - so it could have been more). SGA says that if I play my hand like this every time, it's worth $3 to me IN THE LONG RUN. Am I really seeing this situation often enough to make it worth $3?

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of reasons for the push:
1) Doubling up does put you in striking distance of 2nd. You are close enough to 2nd (after you double up) that you switch places if you double off of him.
2) Your hand is a monster.
3) Once you double up, stealing from 2nd place becomes an option, before, it looks like he would call with any somewhat reasonable hand. Doubling up might get him to fold the lower end of the Kx, Qx spectrum (maybe even hands like 22, A2)

I think you made the right push, sux about the Ace.

[EnderFFX]

[ QUOTE ]
Intuitively, this is a push. I don't own SnGPT so I'll defer to everyone else's statement.

However, I would probably type "I have KK, I will show" in the chat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've done that in the $11 turbo rebuys for the $215 tournament at PStars. Twice the guy folded, once the guy called with AK.

[BadMongo]

Hmmm... Interesting idea. I wonder if it could be construed as collusion though.

[good2cu]

I dunno how you guys aren't getting SGA to work with 70 chips. I'm using v1.18b and it works fine with the extact situation Scuba desecribed.

[tigerite]

Well I'm using 1.19 test 8 or 9 so that's probably why?

[Nicholasp27]

as long as shorty has enough chips to cover the sbs after he doubles up on bb hands...if he can just win 2 bbs in a row, then u will be out of the tourney before him if u fold the rest of ur hands...

he's got 20ish% chance of doing that...plus he could get a good hand besides when in the bb and have even greater odds...

with ur M so low, u can't survive long enough to fold KK


what feels worse: losing with kk with a 1bb stack left or folding kk only to lose in 10 hands because the shorty won two bb hands?

[Nicholasp27]

[ QUOTE ]
it's worth $3 to me IN THE LONG RUN. Am I really seeing this situation often enough to make it worth $3?

[/ QUOTE ]

even if this situation came up once every 10 tournies, then u still won't reach the LONG RUN...u'll approach true EV more and your variance will reduce, but same outcome

this is worth $3, then it doesn't matter if it's once in a lifetime or once every tourney...it's still worth $3...u just have higher variance if it occurs less often


if u get a 1/100 shot at $10mil for a $20 buy-in, u just made $99,980...but the variance is high...do u take it if your bankroll can sustain u losing the $20?

[BadMongo]

I'm using a test version of SGA as well, so yeah, that's probably why we're getting such flakey results.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
The Equity Modelling window is in Edit -&gt; Equity Modelling, in SGA itself. However it does seem wrong, because EV No Call is less than EV Fold which is nonsense.


[/ QUOTE ]

Garbage in, garbage out. If you discount away UTG's stack, you get at least third. This isn't true if you fold. The numbers seem to reflect what you've asked of them.

[ QUOTE ]

Oh well, in which case, I don't know. I'd have to run a proper by-hand ICM instead to be sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll have to double-check, but I don't think it's wrong, so much as a bad application of blind discounting.

If you blind discount UTG's whole stack, you're guaranteed third. That's clearly not true, so choosing to blind discount UTG's whole stack isn't a good choice here.

eastbay