Big Draw faces Major Aggression

Please help me with the logic of whether to call this...

Villain 1 Stats: 102 hands 24 / 5
Villain 2 Stats: 195 hands 34 / 7

Scenario 1: My stack is $150
Scenario 2: My stack is $500
Scenario 3: My stack covers everyone

$400 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, September 07

Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Villain 2 ( $1197.50 )
Seat 3: axisbal ( $562.10 )
Seat 4: ninjadraw ( $191.10 )
Seat 5: hartvey1 ( $1350.75 )
Seat 6: VILLAIN 1 ( $480 )
Seat 2: HERO ( $150.40)
VILLAIN 1 posts small blind [$2].
Villain 2 posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Jc Kc ]
HERO calls [$4].
axisbal raises [$8].
ninjadraw folds.
VILLAIN 1 calls [$6].
Villain 2 calls [$4].
HERO calls [$4].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qc, 5d, 9c ]
VILLAIN 1 checks.
Villain 2 checks.
HERO bets [$30.40].
axisbal folds.
VILLAIN 1 raises [$150].
Villain 2 raises [$300].
Hero ??

[firstyearclay]

MATH GUYS STEP UP HERE!!!

I was ready to get it all in... But the second monster raise made me think this is clearly a set while the first all-in looks like nut flush draw... maybe Ac Tc or Ac Xc... but could just be a lower flush draw or an overpair... even if he doesn't have NUT flush draw, a simple flush draw takes 2 outs away from me...

[LuvDemNutz]

My gut says fold as you could be drawing to 3 outs.

[MTBlue]

I was villain 1 in this hand and had the nut flush draw and was actually just thinking over this hand. I'm not sure if villain two had a set b/c twice before I'd shown massive aggression and both times he'd come over the top big and I was forced to fold b/c both raises were isolation raises. It's a horrible spot for you and I think there are decent arguments for both a fold and a call (getting almost three to 1 on your money).

thanks MT -- glad I posted it...

what did you put him on? also, why bet $150 there? wouldn't something large but smaller than $150 isolate if he didn't have much??



to others, I did fold and so did Villain 1...

[Lucky]

fold in all three scenarios. You're up against a set/nut flush draw with these guys.

[MTBlue]

I like to use a slight overbet raise with a set here due to the amount of draws on the board and it keeps everything standard. I probably could have saved thirty bucks by raising less. Villain 2 probably had a set/ a crooked two pair or top pair with a random kicker b/c he was in the big blind and both him and axisbal had decided that my big raises meant weakness so when ever I raised I was catching alot of hell.

[amulet]

no one really answered the question.

i am going to just round off all the numbers as you would over the game.

you have the second nut flush draw and an inside str8 draw including a one card str8 flush draw. let's assume for this response you did not know you were vs the nut flush draw (your first post).

your flush is 9 outs, which is 4 to 1 on the next card, 2 to 1 against if you see both cards. however, from the betting you think may be a set out, so lets remove 2 outs. that leaves you 7 outs. now we add 4 outs for the str8 draw, which is 11 to 1 on the next card, let's for simplicity say 5.5 to 1 against if you see the river. of those outs the str8 flush out is a real out, let's still call the other 3 probable. 7 plus 4 equals 11 outs twice.

everyone should know that the set is 7.6 to 1 to make his full or better on the next card, and 3.8 by the river.

all players know the 9 outs is 2 to 1 by the river, 4 to 1 on the next card and you have 11. next i would then remove an out or probability two because of the nut flush possibility (and if someone is drawing to a smaller flush, you also have fewer outs). this is not off set by your one perfect srt8 flush out. we are back to about 9 outs in a BEST case scenario. therefore, we are back to about your bringing then a 2 to 1 dog here if you see the river. how much more depends. i would figure that i was not 3 to 1 but somewhere in between (2.25 to 2.5 to 1 over the table). the rest is easy based on the number of chips in the pot and your stack.

math aside you need to add in what you know about the players, and the game.

if you want it done exactly with exact percentages, etc, just post a request. however, i prefer thinking as most could over the table.

facing the reraise vs the non nut flush and a possible set, if i respect the players i usually fold, and am happy to have lost only $36.4.

additionally if you think the games has a positive expectation expectation for you, i prefer playing with a full stack.

the essence of my post was really about playing KING-high flush draws. Guess I should have said that.

Clearly, drawing to King-high flush is sub-optimal... but maybe not unprofitable... I have seen players at 2/4 often move in with nothing but flush draws and undercards. In this case, both opponents were playing solid poker so this was unlikely and thus an easier laydown.

The reason I don't play deep-stack is the mathematical edge I get by having enough to not allow others to draw but not so much that I have to lay down when I have significant pot equity. There are some other benefits too when maniacs just see my 45 BB stack and try to push me off my hand thinking I am less willing to put it in just because its an all-in. I think I get some extra action by these types just because I DON'T threaten their entire stack... It's like my smaller stack is taunting them and their compulsive nature wants to run me over...

Admittedly, vs good players -- there is no advantage except that I cannot be bluffed as well --- Although one plus is I do face less really tough river decisions because I often have good odds by the time I get to the river (if I don't get all-in on turn) -- I am not laying big implied odds. There are a few negatives but I find reduced variance to be a positive... I still win very significant pots when it gets multiway... and playing hands like AA is much much easier (get as close to all-in as I can, the faster the better)...

For example, in this hand I posted, with the nut flush... I can make a profitable call here getting 3-1 whereas if I am deeper (like Villain 1 here), I can't. I only folded because it was King-high flush draw.

If I make Villain 1's $150 bet here, I am all-in and don't have to give up the pot equity he did.

[amulet]

not having a big stack, you lose the abilty to make a big raise to make some calls mathematically incorrect.

more importantly, if you are a winning player, you want more chips to win more chips. winning big pots on your big hands is worth more then any shortstack theory, IF you are good.

winning big pots on your big hands is worth more then any shortstack theory, IF you are good.

well, I don't believe in SHORT or DEEP... there is a middle ground. Short to me is 30 BB's... I don't play that short.

I have found my results to be very streaky (hot and cold deck)... I don't leave when my stack gets big -- I go for big win. So big upside and limited downside makes for asymmetric payoff profile (in options market speak). When I am getting cold-decked, it is much easier to keep playing aggressive when I lose 45 BB's and not 150+ BB's. It is psychological but I am big believer that avoiding TILT is so significant that it is worth doing things that minimize this factor... I am very good at stopping before I tilt and many others are not... I feel this is a significantly +EV edge. Admittedly, GOOD players are good at avoiding this too but I see others facing essentially impossible decisions all the time... You can say you are 'good' or 'not good' but sometimes (when playing No Limit only) NO player in the world knows what to do. You are just making guesses with very limited information -- it is just random variance...

Not to mention, if I am playing with total bozos and some joker sucks out on me, I can buy back in for more than I just lost and get it all-in again as big favorite... (last night I got stacked with my KK vs bozo's J9-suited all-in pre-flop ---- but bought back in for 1.5x usual buy-in and got it back and then some).

Villain 2 probably had a set/ a crooked two pair or top pair with a random kicker

you really think he bets $300 there with only top pair?

[MTBlue]

You've got to remember that I think he knows that I was trying to isolate you and that my hand probably couldn't stand significant heat(at least the last couple of my raises couldn't and I think he picked up on that). The min raise preflop he could have called with any two cards being in the big blind getting great odds on his money. With his read all he has to beat is you and often times the bet pot button is used for semibluffs and draws. I still think his most likely hand was big like two pair or a set but I also think there was a 10-15% chance that he figured both you and I were on a draw and he could take down the pot with a hand that could beat nothing.

[autobet]

Easy call.

You are getting almost 3-1 on your call. If you flush is good, you are better than 2-1 here with your gut shot. The overlay of pot odds more than compensate for the times your flush is not good.

[amulet]

if you are prone to tilt i guess it makes sense. however, if you are players who are "bozos" i think despite the times you lose to awful play, vs the advantage you have (if you are playing bozos) makes me think you should have a full stack.

the advantage you have (if you are playing bozos) makes me think you should have a full stack.

agree with that... but sometimes I think that the bozos will try to run over me with nothing BECAUSE of my smaller stack.... maybe they would try it also if I had a large stack but it seems to me like I am attracting bad play... I may be wrong though, I might be giving up value on those times...

there are tradeoffs... My (current) bankroll won't allow 25 full buy-ins at 2/4... I am trying for maximum bankroll growth and my theory is that 2/4 with mid-stack is superior to 1/2 with big stack (in terms of win-rate vs variance)... but I admit this is a bit of an experiment... when I get to 25 50-BB buy-in's for 5/10, I will again move up... I think... (ie, play 5/10 with $500 buy-in stack --- that is prolly many thousands of hands away though)...