Bad Time to Peel One Off?

[soweak.]

CO is a typical weak/tight TAG. Rest of the players are loose passive calling stations.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, SB calls, Hero ???

[sy_or_bust]

This is a similar situation to "a hand from the archives" that jason t just posted. You're missing a backdoor straight draw, but your king has some extra potential. I'd fold, but it might be an interesting decision.

[soweak.]

I was thinking the same thing as it came around back to me.

[SippinSoma]

Easy peel homie. 8.5:1, 6.5 outs.

[MyTurn2Raise]

fold...UTG (described as loose-passive) bet into TAG CO pre-flop raiser. He's either feeling around for an overpair (not a typical donk move), or he hit the flop pretty well (pair w straight draw, two pair, set). In addition, tight, weakCO raised that bet. Maybe an AK, most likely (&gt;90%) better.

How many outs do you really have?

[TheHammer24]

Easy? I disagree. You aren't closing the action and your hand is gross. The pot is huge though. All 5 outs for the K and the 2 are not necessarily clean. I'll say 4 outs and 1.5 for your back door flush draw. You are getting 15:2 immediate odds and you're about 7:1 dog to make your hand on the turn. However, we must consider effective odds for your backdoor draw meaning you will have to put in extra bets on the turn. Not closing the action, weak hand, it's not one you want to call down with, I fold in this situation.

[SippinSoma]

You are getting laid 17:1 (SB cold called).

Also, please describe situations where his outs are dirty.

[TheHammer24]

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting laid 17:1 (SB cold called).

Also, please describe situations where his outs are dirty.

[/ QUOTE ]

17:2. He has to cold call here.

Also, A2, KK, 34, 66, 22, 55.

[MyTurn2Raise]

raiser could have KK. UTG might have set.

Redraws likely. If UTG doesn't have set, he's very likely on a two pair or pair with inside straight. Cutoff raiser can draw out to bigger two pairs if he has aces.

Plus, you might be stuck for 4! bets on flop.

[soweak.]

[ QUOTE ]
How many outs do you really have?

[/ QUOTE ]

My immediate guess was 7 (3 Kings, 2 deuces, 2 for BDFD). Is this incorrect thinking?

[MyTurn2Raise]

at most it's 7...what do your opponents have? IMCO, I think you have to heavily discount that number based on the possible holdings of your opponents.

[TheHammer24]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How many outs do you really have?

[/ QUOTE ]

My immediate guess was 7 (3 Kings, 2 deuces, 2 for BDFD). Is this incorrect thinking?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes thats incorrect. The only time outs are clean is if they are to the nuts. Your opponent may have KK, 22, 66, 55, A2, 34, or a set, in which case if you hit the card you thought was an out it in fact was not. Also 2 outs for BDFD is too much. I though 1.5 was more reasonable.

[SippinSoma]

I meant 17:2 (8.5:1 in my OP).

Now think about how wide the hand ranges currently are, given all the hands that play this way. I think the hands you specified are a very small percentage.

[soweak.]

[ QUOTE ]
...what do your opponents have?

[/ QUOTE ]

CO can have a lot of hands, Overcards, overpairs, maybe A6s.

UTG: My immediate guess was an overpair. I see this bet from these types of players, putting the PFR on two big cards. His bet didn't make sense for a set or flopped straight.

SB: Some piece of the flop, gutshot, overpair, overcards, or two-pair I can outdraw.

[W. Deranged]

Getting 8.5 to 1, I think this is pretty damn neutral or maybe very slightly +EV.

I think you have to consider that your two pair/trips outs are dirty. Like 3.5-ish outs total. Plus 1.5 for the BDFD.

So we have (5 outs)/(47 cards left) which is very, very slightly higher than 1/9.5 which represents our odds.

It's pretty much a push. Maybe lean toward calling. We'll hit here sometimes and lose, and may need to call one more when we pick up draws, but I don't think these totally outweigh further implied odds.

So I think it's a very, very thin call, probably.

I agree in counting this as around 5 outs, which would be close to even money if we were closing the action with two bets. The situation is however like this:

For two bets on the flop, we are not giving up much if anything by folding, but can equally well play the hand.
For three or more bets we are clearly wrong to call.

Since we are either even money or loosing money, I fold.

[invictus33]

Why on earth would you cold call two bets with bottom pair, a weak/tight who just decided to go on a raising spree and sitting with maybe 5 clean outs?

If you call this it's going to be one of the hands that you look back on and wonder wtf you were thinking cold calling with trash.

[Nick C]

I would probably call, but I wouldn't be too happy about it.