109 77 Bubble Hand

[Degen]

My read is that we all played the bubble well

His range is wide, but not any two

***** Hand History for Game 2666006968 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Trny:15506253 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) - Tuesday, September 06, 19:11:53 EDT 2005
Table Table 12035 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: TheLage ( $2685 )
Seat 3: The_Lobo ( $1825 )
Seat 4: AAKKAKAK ( $2920 )
Seat 10: edand888 ( $2570 )
Trny:15506253 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TheLage [ 7s 7d ]
The_Lobo is all-In [1825]
AAKKAKAK folds.
edand888 folds.
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
TheLage ???

[J-Lo]

the advantage of being the agressor....

only reason i WOULDN'T call is because stack sizes are so close to one another that u can push and have other fold MANY MANY hands-- however, i'd assume others know this too

otherwise, u describe UTG as loose..... AND he seems to be rather desperate w/ 4.5x BB left-- call and hope u catch him w/ A2 or one undercard.... GL

[Newt_Buggs]

My initial reaction was call, and then I ran the numbers and found out that folding would be horrible.

Are you thinking that there's something here that ICM grossly miscounts?

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]

Are you thinking that there's something here that ICM grossly miscounts?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

my FE

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
My initial reaction was call, and then I ran the numbers and found out that folding would be horrible.

Are you thinking that there's something here that ICM grossly miscounts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahahaha. Knowing Degen, this question is very very funny.

Degen, unfortunately this is very much a pot odds v FE question v waiting longer v how is the table playing question v table read.

Pot Odds: I'm sure most would agree that your are likely a 55% favorite against villain's range. Pot odds are giving you 1.70:1 to call, meaning you need to win this hand more than 37% of the time to make this a profitable decision. So you know the important poker decision.

Waiting Longer: Folding here makes you the new shortstack, but not by much, and not overly significant. The real benefit to folding here is whether you think that on the next hand, if folded to you, do you think your opponents would fold a similar or less strength hand to your push/raise.

How is the table playing? Usually this is THE determining factor. If the table has been playing very tight, and hero has rebuilt his stack through many steals in the past, there is some merit to folding here. Some of the problems are that now that pot odds are always going to be so compelling, folds you may have seen in the past with say 44, are now more likely calls. Furthermore, are blinds changing soon?

Table Read: Usually, an UTG push generally reflects strength. I think that read can be reduced here because of the size of the blinds. But if you have a Tight read here on villain, enough for you to eliminate the position read above, and that you could significantly reduce the hand range so that you are no longer 50/50 against his range...

Anyway, Degen, I hate calling here. But I'm certain I'd do it.

I just ran this through SGA. It's really tough to pass up some hugely positive +$EV situations. Here are the results.

Aggressive: 44+, A7s, A9o, KJs+
$EV diff. +0.3%
Loose: 22+, A2s+, A3o+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs
$EV diff. +2.4%
Maniac: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s
$EV diff. +3.1%

For me, Loose is precisely the range I'd put him on.

Here's a thought. How big And how small does your stack have to be here for you to call?

[Degen]

wow nice analysis

i call if i have less than 3 BB's for sure, i definately fold if he is the other big stack and we both have over 4k for sure...

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
Waiting Longer: Folding here makes you the new shortstack, but not by much, and not overly significant. The real benefit to folding here is whether you think that on the next hand, if folded to you, do you think your opponents would fold a similar or less strength hand to your push/raise.

How is the table playing? Usually this is THE determining factor. If the table has been playing very tight, and hero has rebuilt his stack through many steals in the past, there is some merit to folding here. Some of the problems are that now that pot odds are always going to be so compelling, folds you may have seen in the past with say 44, are now more likely calls. Furthermore, are blinds changing soon?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not only about how good FE Degen has when pushing. If he is correct about the table playing the bubble well, the pots will often be raised when the action gets to him, and he can't count on getting much if any good steal opportunities. That's a big part of the reason why you can't pass this kind of an edge in CEV here. An interesting situation, and I'd probably need to use my timebank, but after thinking about if for 30 secs, its' definately a call.

[Michael C.]

I agree that the fact that the others are playing the bubble well would be the deciding factor. At a passive/tight table I'd fold and save my fe. But if others are raising and understand the gap, I'd likely make my stand here.

I fold...at this point with my stack size...I don't want to lose it on a coin flip.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold...at this point with my stack size...I don't want to lose it on a coin flip.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmmm....

Wow.....

Do you think there are any flaws with this statement????

I guess it would depend on reads...but if I am pretty sure he at least has over cards then I would fold. If he is pushing a lot and I think he has at least one undercard then I call. I don't see 77 as a dominating heads up hand do you? I will make more money with my fold equity than the mathmatical profit from calling here.

Edit: I just noticed the blinds were 200/400...that makes a big difference. I probably call in that case.

[Degen]

no way in hell his only range is two overs

he does this with any ace, most kings, any underpair to my 77's and then the overs and big pairs etc

yeah...I added an edit and changed my mind I didn't realize the blinds were so high.

[durron597]

I think the times he has Ax/Kx, x > 7 more than make up for the times he has an overpair. Plus you have great pot odds. I think I insta-call here.

Plus folding makes you the shortstack, albeit not by a lot, but if they are playing the bubble well then that could hurt you a lot.

This is not a call with 22 for me. But I think this is a 70/30 often enough to call.

[Ogre]

[ QUOTE ]
no way in hell his only range is two overs

he does this with any ace, most kings, any underpair to my 77's and then the overs and big pairs etc

[/ QUOTE ]

call

[Scuba Chuck]

See, I can be nice. /images/graemlins/cool.gif