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View Full Version : Flopped straight facing way too much strength

gh9801
09-06-2005, 08:05 PM
My friend's hand - Comments on all streets?

BB 18.5/4.2/0.4 over 120 hands
CO 31/13.8/1.3 over 30 hands

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (10.20 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls, CO folds.

River: (15.20 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 17.20 BB.
TheHip41
09-06-2005, 08:13 PM
I usually fold preflop. The rest looks good. If he's got a boat/flush, good for him.
ep510
09-06-2005, 08:17 PM
Will BB check-raise a worse hand like trips or a tied hand (QJ) here against the pfr and flop capper often enough for this call down to be worth it? Esp. since villian's AF is 0.4...
09-06-2005, 08:46 PM
BB waking up on the turn is pretty disturbing. With such low AF and reasonably tight VPIP I think you can rule out any trips on the turn. Hard to see him cold calling 2 on the flop with just a bare T.

9T, QJ, KT, KQs, 99, TT, AQs, AKs are possible. AA and KK less likely but wouldn't surprise me. Low AF coupled with low VPIP could also be symptomatic of FPS.

On the turn you really only hope he's pumping the unlikely trips or big draw like AK/images/graemlins/spade.gif. By the river he's hit any possible draw. You are at best chopping with another QJ or beating the odd AKo or AA. I'd call river getting 1 to 9+ odds. (9 because you are probably splitting if winning, + because of the off chance you do win the whole pot.)
gh9801
09-06-2005, 08:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
BB waking up on the turn is pretty disturbing. With such low AF and reasonably tight VPIP I think you can rule out any trips on the turn. Hard to see him cold calling 2 on the flop with just a bare T.

9T, QJ, KT, KQs, 99, TT, AQs, AKs are possible. AA and KK less likely but wouldn't surprise me. Low AF coupled with low VPIP could also be symptomatic of FPS.

On the turn you really only hope he's pumping the unlikely trips or big draw like AK/images/graemlins/spade.gif. By the river he's hit any possible draw. You are at best chopping with another QJ or beating the odd AKo or AA. I'd call river getting 1 to 9+ odds. (9 because you are probably splitting if winning, + because of the off chance you do win the whole pot.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Is a turn muck out of the question, since Hero's hand is pretty defined by the turn lead, so BB's c/r must be a super strong hand...?
ep510
09-06-2005, 09:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]

9T, QJ, KT, KQs, 99, TT, AQs, AKs are possible. AA and KK less likely but wouldn't surprise me. Low AF coupled with low VPIP could also be symptomatic of FPS.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't AKs, AA, or KK raise on the flop, when the board wasn't paired? And instead, after the board pairs, check-raise the field?! I think these 3 hands are very unlikely.
Nick C
09-06-2005, 09:20 PM
I think hands like JT and QT are possible, in addition to another QJ.

It's possible I'm underestimating how passive an 0.4 aggression factor really is, though.
TheHammer24
09-06-2005, 09:27 PM
I could never see myself folding the nut straight here. He's pretty passive, but still there are enough hands and the pot is big enough to justify calling the river and turn. If you lose tough [censored], but folding nut straights is a bad habit to get into at SS.

I fold this preflop on the button a lot of the time, UTG+2 I always do.
09-06-2005, 09:59 PM
[ QUOTE ]

Is a turn muck out of the question, since Hero's hand is pretty defined by the turn lead, so BB's c/r must be a super strong hand...?

[/ QUOTE ]

The more I look at it the less I think he's on any draw on the turn. Since our hand can't improve, and it's unlikely he's on any spade, if we call here we call the river (unless it's a T or K). So we're investing 2 total bets to win 17, or to win 8.5 if we chop. It looks pretty grim, but if I was hero I don't think I could fold as much as my gut told me to.
Nutz&Boltz
09-06-2005, 10:11 PM
fold preflop
gh9801
09-06-2005, 10:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I told my friend, he said the table was loose, and in a limped pot his Q or J would most likely be good... I don't like the limp either though