extremely boring standard hand

[1800GAMBLER]

with a poll, and boring to answer questions.

7 handed 30/60. not played by i; i'm watching hands of others.

hero raises AKo CO. BB calls.

Flop: 2h 5h Ao. We have no hearts.

Villian leads. Thoughts on any hand here with percentages? What about the flush draw, do we think villians lead that here?

Hero raises. Call.

Turn: 9h.

Hero bets and gets c/r'ed; thoughts on hand range? yep. nothing more.

[vmacosta]

"What about the flush draw, do we think villians lead that here?" I would.
Hand ranges:
50% flush
10% set
10% Two pair
20% A with big heart draw.
10% crap
Call against players with standard aggression and higher, fold against passive players.

[fnord_too]

I'm assuming the 30/60 game is pretty aggressive. Villain probably sees hero's range as big ace or mid-high PP. I think on the flop villain can have any ace, a heart draw, or PP here, and a very small chance he is on complete air and just putting on a play.

On the turn, I think villains range is still pretty wide. I would say the Ahx hands go up in probability, but he could be making this play with any hand that beats hero since TPGtoT kicker is the most likely top of hero's range of hands, but he could also be putting on a lot of pressure with a weaker (possibly completely missed) hand (since if hero does not have at least aces or a big heart that check raise is going to be really hard to call).

So basicly, I don't think we can narrow down villains holdings enough to make this a good fold (getting 4:1 calling here and a river lead) we need to call down, and it does not seem too close to me.

How to proceed on the turn is totally opponent based. Against a passive opponent I think we have an easy fold. Against the usual 30-60 opponent you have an easy call down. One more thing, anyone see anything wrong with checking the turn to induce a bluff if youre facing a tricky aggressive opponent?

[Lestat]

[ QUOTE ]
"What about the flush draw, do we think villians lead that here?" I would.
Hand ranges:
50% flush
10% set
10% Two pair
20% A with big heart draw.
10% crap
Call against players with standard aggression and higher, fold against passive players.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about a wheel?

Also, why do you give two pair and a set the same likelihood? People call raises from the bb with AX. I think if the flop came AQX you can discount two-pair a little more, because there are now potential counterfeit outs. But if he's got A5 here, you're gonna have to hit twice.

I'm one of the rare birds who can fold AK on the turn here to an unkown with this board. Then again, I probably wouldn't have raised the flop thereby avoiding such a dilemna on the turn. If he's bluffing, good for him. But he'll have me beat often enough and I'll let him pay me off when he's drawing dead, instead of giving him the same courtesy.

Edit:
I really think these auto-payoffs are the single biggest mistakes I see from otherwise good players. They are so afraid of being out-played they just can't fold any hand that has some chance of winning. I can tell you that they pay me off WAY too often and it's why I don't always mind seeing players with tight/aggressive numbers in my game. Now as for the few who are good enough NOT to pay me off... That's a different story.

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think these auto-payoffs are the single biggest mistakes I see from otherwise good players. They are so afraid of being out-played they just can't fold any hand that has some chance of winning.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have this problem a lot. Especially on-line. It's easy to get into auto-showdown mode when the aggro people in these games have such horrible shania for their turn check-raises. It's also easy to convince yourself that folding top pair heads-up is horribly weak even though we have a read to the contrary and the pot is not all that big. Good post.

Still learning,
tpir

just throwing it out there, but what about 3 betting the turn, if it gets capped you can surely fold although you would be folding a pretty big pot. Then maybe re-evaluating on the river if he just calls the turn.

[vmacosta]

Yeah you're right. You can pretty much ignore the exact percentages but I think you're behind most of the time and if you're ahead, most of those times he's drawing quite live....which is why its very close.

[bobdibble]

Lestat, what do you think about a middle ground?

If I'm hero, I'm raising the flop and calling a flop re-raise. If the turn is a non-heart I'm bet/calling-a-cr or raise/calling-a-3-bet. If the turn is a heart, I'm checking the turn and calling a river bet or bet/calling-a-cr if checked to.

[sfer]

From most opponents I expect more preflop/flop action from Ahxh/xhxh/Ax type hands.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
Then again, I probably wouldn't have raised the flop thereby avoiding such a dilemna on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you have raised a non-heart turn?

[Jdanz]

i voted for call/nor close, though i think the most likely hand is a flush draw, as that's the most likely hand to bet out rather then check raise the flop (i usually do as people almost always call the check raise with the slightly better pot odds/implied odds where they'd fold to a single bet). Yet given that, it's still way to likely that villan has either a medium ace at-aj or just picked up a flush draw. I know lestat has a point but these game scan get so aggro that auto-call down is a line that really just has to be taken.

[mmcd]

I see I'm in the minority here, but barring any read that villain is particularly LAG or donkish, I think this is a fairly easy fold.

As for hand ranges: XXh 22 55 A2 A5 34 AA Ahx or occasionally air (but this seems like a really strange line to take on a move)

[ QUOTE ]
i voted for call/nor close, though i think the most likely hand is a flush draw, as that's the most likely hand to bet out rather then check raise the flop (i usually do as people almost always call the check raise with the slightly better pot odds/implied odds where they'd fold to a single bet). Yet given that, it's still way to likely that villan has either a medium ace at-aj or just picked up a flush draw. I know lestat has a point but these game scan get so aggro that auto-call down is a line that really just has to be taken.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this quote about calling down when it comes to online. In real life it is alot easier to make correct laydowns since opponents tend to be more passive and less tricky and you will also be more aware of the way they play.

[ QUOTE ]
I see I'm in the minority here, but barring any read that villain is particularly LAG or donkish, I think this is a fairly easy fold.

As for hand ranges: XXh 22 55 A2 A5 34 AA Ahx or occasionally air (but this seems like a really strange line to take on a move)

[/ QUOTE ]
I used to think this was an easy fold until I started playing online.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I see I'm in the minority here, but barring any read that villain is particularly LAG or donkish, I think this is a fairly easy fold.

As for hand ranges: XXh 22 55 A2 A5 34 AA Ahx or occasionally air (but this seems like a really strange line to take on a move)

[/ QUOTE ]
I used to think this was an easy fold until I started playing online.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not even a matter of the opponent having a high level of agression generally. It's that the bet the flop, call a raise, checkraise the turn line is going to be either a flush draw that hit or flopped monster the vast majority of the time here from "typical" online 30 players.

[Lestat]

Yes. If I chose the line of just call the flop, the reason would be to not take him out of the lead so I could raise a non-heart turn card. Of course, if a heart falls on the turn, I'd almost always call a bet and pay off another non-heart river card. This nets the same two bets when the flush turns (when I get check/raised), with the caveat that this way I win every time he didn't make a flush (or two pair, etc.)

[Lestat]

I think this is an acceptable line, except if you're going to raise the flop, why not cap it after he 3 bets?

The reason I prefer calling the flop is that I don't want to take him out of the lead when he has a flush draw. It is more profitable for him to call a flop raise (and subsequent bet on the turn), with two cards to go, than to call a turn raise in a smaller pot with only one card to come. So if this line makes it is less profitable for him, then it must be more profitable for you.

The other (slight) advantage to not raising the flop is that you lose less those times he did in fact out-flopped you.

[Lestat]

I think you're right. Don't get me wrong... I've called down with hands worse than AK here and been shocked by what I won with. But I need to have some type of profile on such a player. SOME reason to think he's aggro or otherwise an idiot.

So you're saying that against a "typcial" player who so far is showing "average" numbers that calling just about every time is the correct way to go? Maybe I'm losing a little here.

[Lestat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I see I'm in the minority here, but barring any read that villain is particularly LAG or donkish, I think this is a fairly easy fold.

As for hand ranges: XXh 22 55 A2 A5 34 AA Ahx or occasionally air (but this seems like a really strange line to take on a move)

[/ QUOTE ]
I used to think this was an easy fold until I started playing online.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not even a matter of the opponent having a high level of agression generally. It's that the bet the flop, call a raise, checkraise the turn line is going to be either a flush draw that hit or flopped monster the vast majority of the time here from "typical" online 30 players.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's very true. I need to have bet the flop with something. Then again...

Someone with out of line numbers (or that you have witnessed playing sporadically), can show you 77 with the 7h here.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I see I'm in the minority here, but barring any read that villain is particularly LAG or donkish, I think this is a fairly easy fold.

As for hand ranges: XXh 22 55 A2 A5 34 AA Ahx or occasionally air (but this seems like a really strange line to take on a move)

[/ QUOTE ]
I used to think this was an easy fold until I started playing online.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not even a matter of the opponent having a high level of agression generally. It's that the bet the flop, call a raise, checkraise the turn line is going to be either a flush draw that hit or flopped monster the vast majority of the time here from "typical" online 30 players.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's very true. I need to have bet the flop with something. Then again...

Someone with out of line numbers (or that you have witnessed playing sporadically), can show you 77 with the 7h here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hence the caveat in my original post.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're right. Don't get me wrong... I've called down with hands worse than AK here and been shocked by what I won with. But I need to have some type of profile on such a player. SOME reason to think he's aggro or otherwise an idiot.

So you're saying that against a "typcial" player who so far is showing "average" numbers that calling just about every time is the correct way to go? Maybe I'm losing a little here.

[/ QUOTE ]
What I'm saying is if I had no read of my opponent online I would call down, If I had no read of my opponent in real life I would fold. But if you are playing online and your opponent is showing "average numbers" than I think you can fold.

[slavic]

2 thoughts, I assume this is live.

What is an average player for this house?

Why is there no raise option?

[fnord_too]

Just to put some numbers on this:

Assuming the sb is $15 and the rake is $3, when we get to the spot in the pole there are 7.2BB in the pot.

If we face a river bet, we have to have the best hand at showdown 19.6% of the time to make calling down profitable. We will not always face a river bet. Say we face one 90% of the time and get checked to for whatever reason 10% of the time, then we need to show down the best hand 18.8% of the time to be profitable if we always check behind on the river.

I would say that the choices correspond to the following chances of having the best hand at showdown:
Fold, not close <16%
Fold, close 16%-19%
Call, close 19%-22%
Call, not close >22%

I don't play in this game. The last time I regularly played in the 15 was in january or febuary before they opened up more 30 tables. In THAT game, I think it is call, not close against an unknown opponent. In this game, I have no experience.

Lets do a little more math though. Let's assume there are only two possibilities: We are drawing dead or he has a pair and a flush draw for 13 outs. I used 9cTh in poker stove and get us winning 68% there. I know that is not a likely holding, but the pont here is to see if a hand like this is possible, how often does he have to have it to make calling down possible.

Let p = probability we are ahead. Our win percentage at showdown is p*0.68.
If p*0.68 > 0.20 we have a call for sure. If he is semi bluffin here 30% of the time this is a call. If he will apply pressure when behind with hands that are on average weaker than a pair + a flush draw this number drops. If he will make this play with hands that beat us but we can catch up to, this number drops. In short, that 30% is a pretty damn conservative estimate of when calling down becomes profitable. (I'm guessing the real number is much closer to 20%).

I really have no idea how often in the 30 game someone who employs this line has us drawing dead vice applying pressure to make us make an incorrect fold, but this I think frames the question 1800 is asking: How often are we ahead here?

On a side note, I think LeStat's line of calling the flop is far superior to raising it.

[krishanleong]

Getting 7-1 with a hand that probably has 3-7+ outs and has small chance of being ahead. I call.

Krishan

[theBruiser500]

"Also, why do you give two pair and a set the same likelihood? People call raises from the bb with AX. I think if the flop came AQX you can discount two-pair a little more, because there are now potential counterfeit outs. But if he's got A5 here, you're gonna have to hit twice. "

I don't understand this, what do you mean?

[legend42]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand this, what do you mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

Confused me too, but I think he means you can't counterfeit A5 on the turn with that board.

[TaintedRogue]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm one of the rare birds who can fold AK on the turn here to an unkown with this board. Then again, I probably wouldn't have raised the flop thereby avoiding such a dilemna on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe, that by raising the flop, you avoid a dilemma, because, it becomes more obvious that the ck/raise on the turn IS coming from the strength of Villain's hand.
Villain says: Well! I can ck/raise here! 2+2's Hero thinks he has the best hand. But, if you just call the flop bet, Villain has to lead out with what he considers the best hand. I have to pay 1.5bb more than you, but I have more of a guarantee of not being outplayed. Maybe that's not good...