DavidC
09-06-2005, 06:24 PM
You're in the button in a tight-aggressive game, with really weak blinds. Sklansky says you can raise any two cards with +EV here as a steal.
It's folded to you, you look down: 3s2s.
You raise. The SB folds and BB calls. Oh crap!
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Board is Ks9s8c, two of your suit. The defender leads into you. He has AKo, no backdoor flush.
(heads-up, pot is 5.5 SB).
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So you call, expecting that if you hit your hand you can raise and be called to the river.
If you hit on the turn, the pot will be 5.5 sb + 4 sb + 2 sb = 11.5 sb : 1sb for you to call.
Since you have a 4.22:1 shot at this, you're getting an EV of
+(11.5-4.22)/4.22 = +1.75 sb if you hit the turn.
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Supposing you miss the turn, but can raise if you hit the river and you will be called:
Evaluating the EV going from the turn to the river:
Pot will be 3bb, you're getting 5:1 odds on a 4.11:1 shot.
thats: +0.89/4.11 in EV (in bb this time): +0.21BB
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I'm going to post this part right now, just to hear a few yes/no's, and I'll continue by replying to this message.
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Edit: When replying to this message, please reply to the specific post instead of whatever post is at the bottom of the thread, as the subject lines will be changing slightly as new points are brought up.
It's folded to you, you look down: 3s2s.
You raise. The SB folds and BB calls. Oh crap!
--------------
Board is Ks9s8c, two of your suit. The defender leads into you. He has AKo, no backdoor flush.
(heads-up, pot is 5.5 SB).
---------------------------------------------
So you call, expecting that if you hit your hand you can raise and be called to the river.
If you hit on the turn, the pot will be 5.5 sb + 4 sb + 2 sb = 11.5 sb : 1sb for you to call.
Since you have a 4.22:1 shot at this, you're getting an EV of
+(11.5-4.22)/4.22 = +1.75 sb if you hit the turn.
----------
Supposing you miss the turn, but can raise if you hit the river and you will be called:
Evaluating the EV going from the turn to the river:
Pot will be 3bb, you're getting 5:1 odds on a 4.11:1 shot.
thats: +0.89/4.11 in EV (in bb this time): +0.21BB
----------------
I'm going to post this part right now, just to hear a few yes/no's, and I'll continue by replying to this message.
--------
Edit: When replying to this message, please reply to the specific post instead of whatever post is at the bottom of the thread, as the subject lines will be changing slightly as new points are brought up.